All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Residential Market Trends
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
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John KilpatrickChief Executive OfficerGREENFIELD ADVISORS
March 9, 2009
Property investors returning to second homes market as prices fall | www.propertywire.com
1. During the S&L Crisis, 2nd home sales were hit hard, particularly in the time-share market. 2. A contributing factor was lack of permanent financing. 3. Following the crisis, when mortgage markets rebounded, 2nd home sales rebounded as well.
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John KilpatrickChief Executive OfficerGREENFIELD ADVISORS
Mark-to-Market Rules Confuse the Issues
March 9, 2009
Fannie, Freddie to fund part of plan | money.cnn.com
Fannie and Freddie hold mortgages, which in turn are financed by bond issuances. With these subsidies, Fan/Fred will actually save a lot of dead-weight foreclosure costs. Unfortunately, Mark-to-Market Rules put Fan/Fred in a strange accounting trade-off.
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John KilpatrickChief Executive OfficerGREENFIELD ADVISORS
Fixing the market = Flying an airplane
March 9, 2009
Who won't be helped by housing fix | money.cnn.com
This article looks at the recovery plan from the homeowner perspective. Unfortunately, that's the wrong way to look at it.
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Jack KernManaging DirectorKern Investment Research
Declining Home Sales Index Doesn't Tell the Story, NAR Strikes Again!
March 6, 2009
Pending home sales hit record low | money.cnn.com
Recently, the National Association of Realtors reported that their proprietary pending home sales index declined 7.7% in January, 2009 from December, 2008. This article appeared in Money (CNNMoney.com) and quoted Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the realtors group as suggesting that "Even with many serious potential home buyers on the sidelines waiting for passage of the stimulus bill, job losses and weak consumer confidence were a natural drag on home sales." Really now? According to Yun, "History suggests that home sales can rise even in times of job losses when housing affordability rises." Yun then mentioned he expects home sales to turn around by the summer. Makes you laugh doesn't it?
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March 5, 2009
Pending home sales hit record low | money.cnn.com
Sales rates are low. Inventories are high. Clearing the glut in the market isn't happening soon.
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Pending Home Sales Drop No Surprise
March 5, 2009
Pending home sales hit record low | money.cnn.com
The current barrage of negative indicators are headline "data dramas". Given the state of economy, capital market(s) freeze, unemployment, and end loan vacuum, just what else was expected?
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Citi Mortgage.. Bailout or Loan?
March 4, 2009
Citi: Mortgage break to unemployed | money.cnn.com
A Massive wave of foreclosures is looming over America and threatening the economy in ways we have not seen for decades. But is it fair to the roughly 93% of homeowners who are not in a bind (yet) to pay for those who are? If the mortgage bailout is in the form of a "loan" with a 2nd lien placed on the property, then I think we are approaching fairness. Responsible mortgage payers should not foot the bill for others with out some reward. Down the road (2 years, 5 years, 10 years, etc.) the homeowners who received the bailout, need to repay the loan before they profit from the sale of that home. Also consider mortgage delinquencies are up over 50% last month, undoubtedly in part to the bailout plans on the table. There needs to be a strong deterrent to mortgage assistance unless absolutely necessary. Don't punish people for losing their jobs and falling behind on their mortgage, bud definately do not punish those taxpayers who are still on time.
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Do You Think You've Hit Bottom?
March 2, 2009
Fannie, Freddie to fund part of plan | money.cnn.com
First is an outline of where we presently are. Secondly, about how long will it take to finish the process? And where are residential price levels likely to be at that time?
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March 2, 2009
Fannie, Freddie to fund part of plan | money.cnn.com
We all know the Government is attempting to stabilize housing, financial markets and the economy in general. From a macro perspective, we can continue to discuss the merits or lack of same to these programs, the propriety of such intervention and the potential consequences.
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Fannie And Freddie Can't Fund Anything
February 27, 2009
Fannie, Freddie to fund part of plan | money.cnn.com
Fannie and Freddie are broke. What's happening is that they are now conduits for Federal Reserve Funds. In other words, financial engineering and off-balance sheet entities still live.
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