All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Residential Market Trends

It's All A Matter Of Perspective

April 7, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:$500K homes now selling for $200,000 | www.cnn.com

Comparison is difficult.

From the Frying Pan into the Fire / Residential Market Trends

April 1, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Developers reconsider partial ownership model | www.iht.com

Fractional interests, residence clubs, and other "Shared Ownership" ventures are risky business. European developers wanting to give their standing inventory a change of clothes may find themselves longing for the cozy warmth of the frying pan. While a seductive idea, consider the premise:  A builder who cannot find a buyer for necessary shelter, seeks a solution in finding four buyers for its discretionary use. Residential developers will need a new math. Four Seasons, Starwood, Marriott, and Fairmont enjoy the marketing muscle of their guest lists, the credibility of their brand, and deep pockets. Timeshare intervals notwithstanding, efforts have not produced to expectation in this market segment. Projecting a bountiful European market defies all that has transpired. Demand for fractional ownership is not naturally occurring. It is created by massive marketing investment.  A scheme to bail a builders bacon, perhaps. An industry? I doubt it.    

John KilpatrickChief Executive OfficerGREENFIELD ADVISORS

Landmark Preservation has been good business in other cities

March 30, 2009

Analysis of:Challenge to Landmark Law Worries Preservationists | www.nytimes.com

1.  The "devils in the details" -- many cities have excellent landmark preservation ordinances which are win-win for developers and property owners. 2.  Academic and appraisal studies consistently show well-written preservation ordinances actually enhance value in protected neighborhoods.

John KilpatrickChief Executive OfficerGREENFIELD ADVISORS

Partial ownership is not a cure-all

March 30, 2009

Analysis of:Developers reconsider partial ownership model | www.iht.com

Vacation or second-home partial ownership makes great sense in very high amenity locations, such as ski-slopes or high-demand beaches.  However, the model certainly doesn't work well in other situations.

Be Worried... Very Worried

March 29, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Challenge to Landmark Law Worries Preservationists | www.nytimes.com

Preservation is a wonderful word. Adding "ism" to it does not, however, enhance its attraction. The tide of police power ebbs and floods, mostly flooding. Developers can get along just fine with NIMBY dominated planning, but what about the rest of us?

Mortgage-back Securities Strike Again

March 23, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Rise in foreclosures 'a shock' | money.cnn.com

RealtyTrac based their expectations on the foreclosure moratorium of Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddy Mac (FRE) and major banks. What RealtyTrac failed to take in to account mortgage-back securities, mortgages held by banks security divisions and Wall Street firms, serviced by corporations hired to service these mortgages. The servicing corporations do not have a foreclosure moratorium and are still collecting fees not matter the mortgages fate.  The Mortgage holder cannot just call up the bank and ask for help, the bank will not have the loan listed on their books; the loan is a security or investment of the bank and viewed as such.

Jack KernManaging DirectorKern Investment Research

Foreclosure Shocks Surprise No One but CNN

March 23, 2009

Analysis of:Rise in foreclosures 'a shock' | money.cnn.com

It is starting to turn out that money.cnn.com (c) is part of comedy central (c), at least unintentionally. The headline, Rise in foreclosures 'a shock,' simply misses the point that foreclosed homes are on the rise across the country. The real increase in reported cases in February shouldn't have shocked anyone because local and regional initiatives have run their course in many places and homes that were effectively protected from court action finally hit the list. This constant sweepstakes in the media to drum up issue selling headlines has hit a new low, the false claim that somehow nobody saw this coming. Money ought to be ashamed. 

I'm shocked, shocked to find that...

March 19, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Rise in foreclosures 'a shock' | money.cnn.com

...foreclosures go up when employment goes down. The politics of foreclosure will certainly be explored this year. This will cease to be news with the return of economic growth.

Matthew AndersonPartnerForesight Analytics LLC

The Real Shock Might Be That Foreclosures Aren't Higher

March 18, 2009

Analysis of:Rise in foreclosures 'a shock' | money.cnn.com

The exceptionally weak housing market and weak economy will likely drive foreclosures higher. Foreclosure mitigation efforts so far have failed to produce proper incentives for borrowers, especially when a home's price falls further after loan restructuring.

Foreclosures - Economic Ethnic Cleansing or Poor Lending Practices

March 17, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Rise in foreclosures 'a shock' | money.cnn.com

The higher default and foreclosure rates are coming from the African American and Hispanic American intensively populated states. Moratoriums can't overcome the last hired, first fired trend in the unemployment. In this case, reduced lending and underwriting standards spurred on by Community Redevelopment Act (CRA) banking requirements are now revealing their flawed logic. Seasonal hiring practices leave these vulnerable borrowers subject to layoffs followed by the inevitable default and foreclosure time table of 5-6 months from first notice to foreclosure sale.

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