All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Residential Market Trends
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
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Miami Mayhem the worst is yet to come...
April 30, 2009
Miami housing: The power of cheap | money.cnn.com
Gross oversupply, huge hidden inventory, inability to finance...anything!
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Foreclosure Listings Underestimated for Q2-3
April 30, 2009
US Foreclosure Filings Jump as Moratoriums End | www.cnbc.com
The lifting of the Moratorium (October 31-March 31) has released a sizeable number of foreclosures into the mortgage modification process, largely a prefunctory step before the assignments are made to REO Brokers to list the assets. The current supply of foreclosureslistings has dwindled during the Moratorium but now will increase by 500% or more given the release of the pipeline of assets no longer under the Moratorium. The change to the mortgage modification program now provides that mortgage servicing companies must automatically modify the second mortgage when the first mortgage is reworked. About half of the assets have both first and second mortgages so the failure to provide for second morgage modifications was a major issue. (WSJ 4/27, A4) The implications are underestimated, specifically: (1) foreclosure supply will spike (2) home values will drop further (3) foreclosures as competition to new construction will reduce demand for Builders.
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Steve BottfeldPrincipalMarketing Solutions
April 21, 2009
US Foreclosure Filings Jump as Moratoriums End | www.cnbc.com
March came in like a lion and left Las Vegas residential real estate roaring. There was powerful improvement in sales and inventory figures while prices remained relatively stable. It may very well be that in the future, many will regard March as the bottom of the current downturn in Las Vegas. I have said repeatedly that the Las Vegas residential real estate bottom would begin in that month in which the number of foreclosure sales exceeded the number created. That happened in March - and it happened big. For the second consecutive month, the number of ACTUAL foreclosures fell. Las Vegas experienced 1,846 actual foreclosures in the month of March, down almost 400 from February. The number of foreclosures sold, however, was 2,393. In other words, there was 35% more sales of foreclosures than foreclosures created!
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April 20, 2009
US Foreclosure Filings Jump as Moratoriums End | www.cnbc.com
Moratoriums don't affect fundamentals. The fundamental of foreclosure is jobs, which creates demand. Value is real, but secondary.
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April 13, 2009
Signs of life in California real estate | money.cnn.com
There are a number of statistics in the CNN article which are worthy of attention.
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Home Prices will Hit Bottom When Seller's and Agents Have a Reality Check
April 13, 2009
When home prices hit bottom | money.cnn.com
The housing market will improve dramatically when Seller's finally realistically price houses and Listing agents stop buying Listings. This is particularly true in the luxury house market; i.e., (houses priced in excess of $1,000,000.) For example in McLean, Virginia; houses in the 22101-22102 zip codes, for the first 13 days of April, 2009, saw three (3) new listing in that price range entered the market daily. As contrasted to the month of March, where 54 new listings entered the market since the 1st. At the current rate of new listings entering the market, the current inventory in this price range will nearly double month over month, adding to an already bloated inventory. Currently there are 250 active listings in 22101-22102, of which more than 55% are in excess of $1,000,000. That combined with the total luxury house inventory inside the "Beltway" of 559, illustrates the vast selection available to well healed Purchasers and the significat conpetition facing Sellers.
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Jack KernManaging DirectorKern Investment Research
California Home Sales Tank Filling but the Trend Still Leaks
April 13, 2009
Signs of life in California real estate | money.cnn.com
Oh those clowns at CNNMoney.com are at it again... California has become the poster child for housing excess, with foreclosures leading the nation and entire neighborhoods comprised of empty tract homes. Recently the California Association of Realtors announced that the median home price has fallen to $247,590, a 41% decline from a year ago. Not surprisingly the vulture investors are picking over the carcass' of the far flung suburbs looking for deals, and beyond surprise home sales jumped by over 600,000 homes. CNNMoney promptly jumped to the assertion that the CA housing bust may be over. I do believe one of these days they'll get it right, but not this time.
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Purchasing a home: now is the best time!
April 13, 2009
When home prices hit bottom | money.cnn.com
Home prices are as low now as ever. if a buyer is in the market now is the best time to buy a home. with interest rates as low as they are a first time home buyer would be wrong to think now is not the best time to purchase a home.
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Real Estate Sales on the Westside of Los Angeles Very Strong
April 9, 2009
Signs of life in California real estate | money.cnn.com
Sales have grown exponentially since the beginning of the year, Gibson International is a good case in point as our closings have doubled each month from January through March. There is a general sense of optimism growing among the brokerage community. Open houses are very busy and multiple offers are common. Inventory is stable and there are very few foreclosures. Prices have dropped approx. 25% from their peak and the price decline appears to be slowing in all areas but especially Santa Monica, Beverly hills, and Pacific Palisades. Malibu is the one exception as it continues to have the largest amount of foreclosures and inventory is growing. Prices will continue to drop after other Westside areas have leveled off. Many of the transactions are all cash or with large down payments. The jumbo loan market is an obstacle to sales rising faster as there are very few lenders in that market. however, trhere are signs that even that is starting to losen.
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Jack KernManaging DirectorKern Investment Research
Housing Short Sales Spell the Beginning of a New Problem
April 7, 2009
$500K homes now selling for $200,000 | www.cnn.com
Across the nation, in lush neighborhoods, previously known for their exclusive addresses and opulent surroundings, the aura of for sale signs and new home purchases is becoming a familiar theme. In previous housing cycles, these home buyers would never have found the bank owned real estate anything close to affordable, but with dwindling prices and weak kneed sellers, anything is possible. What appears, however to be a boon to buyers is a warning shot across the bow of neighborhoods across the U.S. Simply put, the second wave of panic selling is coming.
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