All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Residential Market Trends
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
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Prices Fall + Interest Rates Fall = Improved Affordability
May 20, 2009
Home prices slide 14% | money.cnn.com
All one really needs to look at is the areas that have adjusted prices most to meet the affordability index will be the winners.
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Steve BottfeldPrincipalMarketing Solutions
May 20, 2009
Home prices slide 14% | money.cnn.com
This article notes that some communities -- like Las Vegas -- are showing dramatic improvement. April housing data for Las Vegas continues to show stellar improvement on many levels. But, the improving data fails to answer two key questions: (1) Are we seeing a true "moderating" trend beginning to develop as the data suggests: Or (2) Is this the calm before another recessive storm?
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Steve BottfeldPrincipalMarketing Solutions
May 18, 2009
Home prices slide 14% | money.cnn.com
The National Association of Realtors Reported: 1. The median single family home price fell 13.8% during the first quarter. That was the largest year-over-year decline in the last 30 years. 2. The median single family home price slid 6.2% from the last quarter. 3. Sales volume was weak as well. Homes sold at a 4.59 million annualized rate in the first quarter, down 3.2% from the last quarter and 6.8% from last year. While that is a gloomy assessment of the present, the report did include some positive points. While we don't expect a "turn-around" in the very near future, there were some hopeful signs.
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Soaring Home Sales Volume Is The Real Story
May 15, 2009
Home prices slide 14% | money.cnn.com
The worst hit States, Nevada, California, Arizona and Florida huge increases in sales volume is the most significant point of this article. It means that prices have hit the level necessary to generate strong sales indicating that price stabilization is here or very near. The drop in the median prices is as expected in as much most sales are entry level or investor driven, meaning lower priced product predominates. Only a substantial increase in unemployment and/or mortgage rates will derail this stabilization.
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May 14, 2009
Home prices slide 14% | money.cnn.com
I'll be surprised. Again. We're presently, with this announcement, approximately at what I recently predicted for a bottom in national median home price.
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Retro Property Prices for Resale units versus New Projects in Singapore
May 5, 2009
Declining Property Values Sock Singapore Developers | online.wsj.com
Any Developers that focuses solely on Singapore property development especially on the high end sector will really need to buffer up their cash-flow seriously. The only reason why Singapore is still attractive to foreigners is the political stabilty of the Goverment. Elections in Indonesia, Malaysia & Thailand makes Singapore a safer place for their business & their children. The double whammy is that USA, China ( including Hong Kong), India & Indonesia by sheer virtue of the mass population (property to people ratio) will recover much faster then Singapore in terms of 'excess properties' built especially in the prime districts. However the US still needs to re-engineer their financial fundementals so that it does not operate like a 'single financial socket point'. The Asian economy will take a while to kick start especially on the export sector.
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May 5, 2009
Is Now the Time for Some Home Buyers to Make a Deal? | www.cnbc.com
The NAR are incorrect in their analysis of the market, for the following reasons 1. A huge number of foreclosure holidays ended in March and are currently proceeding through the foreclosure system. This will mean a massive number of properties flooding the market this summer. 2. The number of sales in proportion to the amount of foreclosed homes coming onto the market is going to further decline house prices this summer by as much as 20% in certain markets 3. Due to this "bulge" the market will not start to see any type of REAL good news until 2010. The NAR are trying to over sell the positive news but it is only the calm before the storm...
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Jack KernManaging DirectorKern Investment Research
NAR Promotes Higher Home Sales As Sign of Recovery
May 1, 2009
Is Now the Time for Some Home Buyers to Make a Deal? | www.cnbc.com
This article, written with references to the National Association of Realtors and mostly quoting realtors provides an industry line specific recommendation about the real estate cycle and buying homes. The NAR has been under increasing criticism, both inside the home building and real estate industry and even from its former chief economist, now in private practice. The central issue is the almost paranoid need to present good news for realtors at any cost, with honestly being the first casualty it seems.
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May 1, 2009
Developers price speculators out of real estate market | www.thanhniennews.com
While there remains uncertainty as to the appropriate target for both private and institutional investors, either with liquidity or the capacity to raise finance for investment purposes, the world looks to the equities market, the bond market, to commodities, to gold and to the currency markets to hedge against further declines and to recuperate past losses. Since the current economic downturn has been blamed on the sub-prime mortgage catastrophe and the parallel investment instruments linked to the insurance of sub-prime mortgages, “property” is seen as the common cause, whereas in reality, it has just caught the common cold. There are areas of the world where property has been more or less unaffected, categories of property, where resilience to infection is prevalent, sectors of Real Estate activity which offer unique opportunities for solid, medium and long term answers to investment questions. THE FRENCH RIVIERA.....
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Jack KernManaging DirectorKern Investment Research
Miami Condo Sales Showing Longer Term Outlook
April 30, 2009
Miami housing: The power of cheap | money.cnn.com
Miami is one of America's great cities. With award winning architecture, an internationally recognized skyline and an attractive quality of life, it is perhaps unsurprising that the city is rebounding. In the money.cnn.com article, the highlight is the number of people who have bought homes out of distressed situations. According to quoted First American Core Logic, South Florida housing prices declined 36%, while the foreclosure rate in February hovered around 9%, up from approximately 4% a year ago. The upshot: Media attention on the demise of South Florida was overplayed.
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