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All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Real Estate Investment

Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.

No Cash for Nobody???

March 20, 2009

GLG Expert Contributor

Maturing Loans Are Coming Home to Roost | nreionline.com

The CMBS market is dead in tis original format and must be reconstituted with appropriate risk assumption by key players. Local and regional banks as well as Life Insurance Comapnies are active and filling some of the void. In 2009 only the best borrowers that are willing to contribute serious equity to their property will be able to get a piece of the debt market.

Brooks MendellPresidentForisk Consulting What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Timberland markets: What are International Paper's (IP) timberlands worth?

March 4, 2009

International Paper Cuts Dividend, Sells Timberland | www.bloomberg.com

In announcing its 90 percent dividend cut, International Paper (IP) also cited the implementation of a common forest industry strategy in times of financial distress: the selling of timberlands.  While IP has a potential deal in place to sell 143,000 acres, the terms are (1) contingent upon financing and (2) seemingly aggressive in a current timberland market that has seen three major potential deals withdrawn from the market or terminated.

Brooks MendellPresidentForisk Consulting What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Timber investments and REITs: what are investors asking?

January 30, 2009

For Some, Sound of Profit Is "Timber!" | online.wsj.com

The article summarizes the historical attractiveness of owning timberlands as a long-term investment.  However, the questions raised by investors regarding the asset in the current environment have changed.  In addition, the strategy of using timber REITs as a pure-play proxy for direct timberland investments remains questionable. 

Kenneth Leonard, Principal

Kenneth LeonardPrincipalLeonard Associates What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Don't Tell Me This Was A Surprise To Any Prudent Investor

January 15, 2009

Wave Of Bankruptcy Filings Expected From Retailers in Wake of Holidays | online.wsj.com

The WSJ is telling us to expect a new wave of retailer bankruptcies due to "GE, CIT Group and Wachovia , (among others) tightening up their lending practices.  When this next round of bankruptcies is announced, the GLG readers will see CEOs blaming the lack of credit or the unreasonable lenders for their failures. I predict that not one will admit it was their own fault for over expansion, over borrowing, lousy performance or simply not being as smart or as good as their competitors.

Kenneth Leonard, Principal

Kenneth LeonardPrincipalLeonard Associates What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Chickens Are Coming Home To Roost

January 13, 2009

As Vacant Office Space Grows, So Does the Crises for Lenders | www.nytimes.com

Office vacancy rates are rising rapidly and now have reached 10% in virtually every major city in the country. As the recession worsens the vacancy rates are expected to rise even further and cause a wave of bankruptcies, business failures and property give-backs that will permeate the portfolios of banks and private equity lenders for many years to come.

Kenneth Leonard, Principal

Kenneth LeonardPrincipalLeonard Associates What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Controversial Headlines Sells Newspapers

January 2, 2009

Projection: Up To 3,000 Retail Properties to Close | blog.retailtrafficmag.com

This article is important in my opinion because it typifies the kind of silly sensationalism that is adding to the turmoil in the real estate investment industry and the retail real estate industry in particular. The article is so poorly written and the research so fraudulently conducted that neither bothers to define what they mean by "retail property". A careful reading of the article reveals that a retail property could mean anything from a 350 square foot "pushcart" or "kiosk" space in a mall, to an entire 1 million SF mall containing hundreds of small and large stores! While I agree that as many as 3,000 kiosks and/or small retail stores could easily close by 4/09, it is silly to even think that 3,000 malls or strip shopping centers could close by that time.

Gavin Campbell, Managing Principal

Gavin CampbellManaging PrincipalSteelbridge Capital LLC What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Tip of the Iceberg

January 2, 2009

Real estate write downs plague Morgan Stanley results | www.privateequityrealestate.net

The recent write-downs by Morgan Stanley's real estate funds are a harbinger of broader value impairment to come in both public and private real estate markets. Although a good deal of the current write-downs  are related to refinancing issues, a second, and equally significant loss of value is coming.  This will occur when the current economic downturn starts to show up in deteriorating operating fundamentals and increased property vacancies.

Kenneth Egan, Broker and Realtor

Kenneth EganBroker and RealtorRe/Max All Cities Realty What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Hang onto your hats in 2009(and your cash)

January 2, 2009

Deschutes County defaults up 228% in '08 | www.bendbulletin.com

We are sliding deeper into a worldwide depression, but the situation is not that bleak for all. Home prices will eventually be where they should have been all along. The fed program to save homeowners is a total bust.

Kenneth Leonard, Principal

Kenneth LeonardPrincipalLeonard Associates What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Terrible Performance Clouded By Terrible Explanation

January 2, 2009

Real estate write downs plague Morgan Stanley results | www.privateequityrealestate.net

This article which purports to explain a 76% decline in net revenues from Morgan Stanley's merchant banking division from 2007 and a write down of $355 million, sends about as garbled a message as any I have read in recent weeks. Whenever I see such an ambiguous article coupled with a CFO's blaming of "general market conditions" for such a lousy performance, I immediately suspect a cover up for incompetence or worse.

Jack Kern, Managing Director

Jack KernManaging DirectorKern Investment Research What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Sovereign Wealth Funds are Major Investors in Commercial Properties

December 17, 2008

Sovereign wealth funds poised to snap up global real estate | www.propertywire.com

CB Richard Ellis is reporting that Sovereign wealth funds will own up to 20% of global real estate worth with an estimated value of $725 billion by 2015. There has been a rise in these funds as more countries look to the safety and security of the Western nations. Apparently international bankers believe that a lot of the funds are on the sidelines waiting for market conditions to stabilize before committing to a particular property sector. "This means that they will have bought between 15 and 20% of total international property by 2015 while increasing competition for trophy assets in the US and UK where property prices are low," according to the article.

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