All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Investment Banking & Commercial Finance

The Global Recession - Time and Expectatives

April 17, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Global recession to be long, deep with slow recovery | www.vimay-group.com

Could convert the international financial crisis in a global recession following the report of IMF.

Raj OjhaCEOGigFire Microsystems

Semiconductor Trend in CYQ2 and CY2009

April 13, 2009

Analysis of:Junk Bond Market Smelling Better | news.glgroup.com

The analysis briefly summarizes the semiconductor trend for CY2009 Companies are expected to post better results in CY-2009-Q1 compared to previous quater due to continued strong demand in APAC especially in China followed by India. It is estimated that most companies will meet their guided forecast and are expected to forecast up in CY-2009-Q2.

The Problem Isn't Explaining Derivatives; It Is That the Policy Is Dangerously Flawed

April 1, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of: "Daddy, tell me, what exactly is a derivative?" | www.ft.com

The article is an example of the confusion that prevails in Washington over the relationship between Public Relations, which is the dominant activity, and Public Policy, which tends to get lost in the fog of what amounts to propaganda.  Carville understands that money has been showered on corrupt bankers, but there is a tendency to downplay policy failures by portraying them as communication problems, or worse, as problems of perception. The predicament that has snared Obama is that after promising change and that his administration would be free of the influence of lobbyists and special interests, he has continued the policy of bailing out insolvent. Too Big To Fail, financial institutions and has installed Tim Geithner, one of the principal architects of the failed and flawed policies of previous administrations, to run it.

Can a Wall Street CEO Explain a Credit Default Swap to Their Teenager?

March 30, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of: "Daddy, tell me, what exactly is a derivative?" | www.ft.com

Obama is having difficulty explaining "toxic assets" to Americans.  With dismal Financial Literacy most Americans do not even understand stocks and bonds. The events of the past 6 months has motivated them to seek out education. The larger problem that Washington faces is how will it regulate an industry when the people running it do not understand the core concepts of their businesses.  With little knowledge of the financial markets and complex products, Wall Street is being led by people who do not understand what their traders are trading. 

Evolution of telecommunications providers through increased competition with Internet Portals companies

March 30, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:So much for capitalism | www.economist.com

The worlds of communications, media, and entertainment are converging as communication service providers look to provide a more compelling service experience to customers by offering a blend of services over a variety of end devices. As these industries converge, opportunities and challenges are being created for established communication service providers in this new environment. Current dynamics will force communication service providers to devise strategies to deal with the new realities of the market while ensuring long-term success.

ILFC Risk Transference

March 27, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Fed Approves Loan to Shore Up ILFC | hosted.ap.org

According to the Associated Press, the Federal Reserve signed off on the latest cash infusion to AIG late Wednesday (03-25-2009).  It is thought that these funds could be dispersed to ILFC the first of next week and possibly as early as Monday. The company is thought to have debt of more than $575 million that is coming due by 03/31/2009 or 04/01/2009.  ILFC has stated in the past that it's parent, AIG will continue to offer such loans until March 2010 or until the unit is sold, whichever comes first. It is speculated that at least three private equity groups are involved in researching bids for one of the worlds largest aircraft lessor's in an upcoming second round auctioning scheduled for sometime in April 2009. The U.S. government has implied but has not obligated itself that it will help prospective qualified buyers in financing the acquisition of ILFC.

TALF spelled backwards is pronounced FALT!

March 26, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:So much for capitalism | www.economist.com

$160 million bonus for the department that caused the emergency? Really?What does that say about the American system? the system that’s fundamentally flawed. AIG…bailoutswith all in constant flux. That’s  Just A Distraction Bailoutsstimulus…TALF. They’re all  distractions from the problem; Housing. massive changes since 2007 gone are Indymac, Countrywide and WaMu. no matter how many  fires, we can’t lose sight of housing. That’s much of crisis’ investments. housing is where we’ll be looking for signs of recovery.  various American mortgages will be resetting  from “teaser” rates, and into long-term rate to carry throughout the lifetime mortgage. This is all the fuss. we’re actually winding down on the bulk of subprime first-resets. At the moment as far as housing’s concerned  we arein the eye of the storm.  the next time you see an uptick in the stock market… the success of bailouts, remember there’s more, bad mortgage paper.  This isn’t over no matter hat Bernanke might’ve told you.

Diran MajarianManaging DirectorAmalia Tankers Inc

A political impass resolved brings a relief rally

March 24, 2009

Analysis of:The Geithner Asset Play | online.wsj.com

There now seems sense of relief and renewed optimism that Geithner has finally presented a plan to clean up the US financial system from the subprime mortgages.  The plan itself is really a reworked version of the old Paulson Plan.   

Diran MajarianManaging DirectorAmalia Tankers Inc

Political dimensions of the financial crisis leading to rising risks

March 23, 2009

Analysis of:Causes Of A Great Inflation: Tunneling For Resurrection | www.rgemonitor.com

A recent Intelligence Squared debate put the major blame on Washington over Wall Street for the financial crisis. Nouriel Roubini sided – together with Niall Ferguson and John Gordon Steele – with the view that Washington was the real culprit even if many bankers and investors were greedy, incompetent and taking excessive risk.  If bad political policies are the mother of the crisis, politics will determine the outcome.  There is considerable slippage between effective economic policies and political expedience in the crisis management and major risks lie ahead.

Auto Industry to come out of recession very soon

March 20, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Bank makes company borrowing cheaper | www.ft.com

With the lowering of Bank rates in U.K and so also all over the World, our analysis confirms that the AUTO/AUTO Anciliary Industry segment shall be in the forefront as the economy turns around. Bank of England and so also many other Central Banks through out the World have started buying back Goverment Securities to flush the market with cash that is more liquidity. This shall lower the lending rates for the Industry, infrastructure projects, new plants , and also generate demand .Many projects/products would become viable for manufacture within UK. Auto industry is the one in UK, now under acute stress, like in USA. With revival, more employment, more jobs, demand for cars/motorcycles would be the first, particularly small cars, as it is the essential commodity for all commuters. UK is the competitive hub for auto parts also. Consequently when demand revives in USA/INDIA, large quantity of parts would also get exported- particularly the high tech items for autos/railways/airways.

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