All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Insurance & Risk Management

Japanese companies better equipped than US European counterparts to whether the storm ?

October 20, 2008

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Sumitomo Life Will Limit Overseas Investments on Currency Risk | www.bloomberg.com

Japanese top institutional investors asset allocation change  justified by fundamentals. Domestic eqities allocation increase versus US or European equities to further support Yen implied volatility historic reversal ( as expected anyway).

Calling all Risk Managers

October 3, 2008

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Why Risk Models Failed to Spot the Credit Crisis by Adam Davidson | www.npr.org

The eyes of the world are focused on Washington where the SEC, the FED and Congress debate how they are going to execute the massive bail out announced last week.  As a derivatives trader who sits in the trenches, I am more concerned about a larger issue.  Where were the Risk Managers of these firms as they doubled down on exotic derivatives and traded credit default swaps as if they were shares of  IBM?  How in a world of endless quantitative models could we have ended up here in the midst of the largest credit crisis of all times?  Washington would like us to believe the short sellers created this fiasco.  Short sellers may have exasperated the present situation but the storm has been brewing for years.  I strongly believe there has been a systematic failure in the area of Risk Management.

No Black Swans Here, just termites.

October 3, 2008

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Why Risk Models Failed to Spot the Credit Crisis by Adam Davidson | www.npr.org

Programs run on information Information has value Unless purchased or forced, accurate, timely and complete information will not be disclosed Bad information, bad results

Joseph SmithPresident & CEODefault Mitigation Management

Blame the models and Risk Based Pricing

September 30, 2008

Analysis of:Why Risk Models Failed to Spot the Credit Crisis by Adam Davidson | www.npr.org

Models only cover certain variables and the crisis involved much more than mortgage pricing and a few macroeconomic issues. Risked based pricing as used in the mortgage industry had an underlying flaw that caused the models to fail. Greed played the other part.

Don't Blame the Models

September 29, 2008

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Why Risk Models Failed to Spot the Credit Crisis by Adam Davidson | www.npr.org

Don't blame risk models for the financial crisis. The root cause was a failure of management. Risk management, as a discipline, did not fail -- it was never really tried.

Martin AlpertVice President, Environmental ClaimsHINZ CLAIM MANAGEMENT INC

AIG:How to Read the Roadmap to Avoid Disaster!

September 22, 2008

Analysis of:How AIG fell apart | www.reuters.com

What do some analysts opine was the real reason for AIG's debacle?What real lessons can be learned from this financial predicament?

Don't forget the Canadian Insurers

September 19, 2008

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Japanese insurers seen eyeing AIG assets | www.reuters.com

Canadian life insurers are also well poised.  Poor exposure is limited and managable.  The strength of the Canadian vs. US dollar helps also.

Opportunity knocks for Japanese life and non life Insurers

September 18, 2008

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Japanese insurers seen eyeing AIG assets | www.reuters.com

Alico Japan is indeed a superb business opportunity for Japanese life and non life insurers to expand market share at discount price. Lehman bankruptcy dammage assessment to Japanese life and non life insurers is limited.

Nitish GroverPrincipal, OwnerNitish Grover and Associates

The Global Financial Collapse - The Coming Revival? - Should We Expect More?

September 17, 2008

Analysis of:New York Allows AIG To Lend Itself Money | www.nytimes.com

The  talk is  as  if  Armageddon  has  arrived. A number of Institutions  have collapsed or are looking for lifelines. The situation is bad but not alarming.  Since  September 2006  I  have  been  arguing  in  these  columns  that  the  skyline was not bright and especially  so  since  March 2007 - much  against  the  considered  wisdom. The present  situation  to  my  mind  is  one  where  most  of  those  who  had  to collapse  have  done  so. The time has  come  to  pick up  the  pieces. The  authorities  should regulate  without interfering  with  market  forces. The  situation  is  only  bound  to be  brighter. I  reason  below  the  basis  for my  opinion.

Capitalistic Opportunity - The Ability to Buy-Out Corporate Pension Funds!

September 5, 2008

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Buyouts boost as Pru takes £1bn C&W pensions | business.timesonline.co.uk

Implications: 1.Record breaking deal to off-load Pension Liabilities to Prudential Insurance Comapny: A Boost for the Cable & Wireless Company. Unload the Liability! 2.The LARGEST Transfer of Liabilities to an Insurer: The trend becomes more apparant. Keep the Assets and Transfer the Liabilities. End result: A better Balance Sheet and related ratios. 3.The causation - falling liabilities enhance the sale as the costs associated with the same delete or eliminate themselves. 4.A hugh amount of monies are on the table and approach E 1 billion in pension liabilities. 5.In return for the assumption of the liability- C & W infused E 10  million into the pipeline : a Material amount of money. 6.The original pension provider reduces it's liability by half, while the existing Trustees administer the Fund.

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