All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Homebuilding
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
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CORRECT: MARKET WILL GET WORSE IN 2008 AND 2009
January 22, 2008
Existing-home Sales Expected to Fall Again | www.marketwatch.com
Ms. Kamala Worthington wrote the article and I agree with what she said. FLorida and CA are two of the worst areas for real estate in the country. Foreclosures and short sales will be even better for buyers in 2008. Mortgages will be a lot tougher to get in 2008
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Steve BottfeldPrincipalMarketing Solutions
SIGN POSTS INDICATE BETTER YEAR FOR LAS VEGAS
January 22, 2008
Homes for Sale in Las Vegas Still Sliding | www.lvrj.com
Housing market’s statistics from 2007 showed why Las Vegas builders and Realtors raised their glasses to toast the New Year with trembling hands. Many analysts have already forecast 2008 to be a worse year for Las Vegas than 2007. I disagree.
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January 22, 2008
New housing outlook: 5 years to recover | www.azcentral.com
Finally we have the first forecast of a housing recovery that seems believable. The five year forecast for Phoenix appeals to my sense of reality and I agree. I also agree that we will forget the current pain and euphoria will reign again.
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Kamala WorthingtonPresidentKW Marketing Consultant
2008 Mortgage Outlook: Delinquencies, Foreclosures, Too Much Inventory & New Home Construction Sinks
January 22, 2008
Existing-home Sales Expected to Fall Again | www.marketwatch.com
2008 isn't shaping up as a good year for the mortgage industry as delinquencies hit record highs, foreclosures reach record levels, builders are faced with too much inventory and in December 2007, applications for building permits fell by 8.1%, which marked the seventh consecutive monthly decline and reflects the fact that builders have been slashing production plans in an effort to deal with a glut of unsold homes in the U.S. Another indicator that the housing market downturn isn't over is the decline in new home construction, which was down 14.2% in December 2007 and down 25% in 2007, from 2006, which is the largest amount in 27 years. The delinquency rate on mortgage loans was 5.59% in 3Q07, up from 5.12% in 2Q07, which is the highest level of delinquencies since 1986 and the value of those delinquencies surpassed $200 billion. Housing construction fell by 30.8% in the Midwest and was down 25.8% in the Northeast and 19.6% in the West and the South had the lowest decline at 3.3%.
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2008 and Homebuilders - Caveat Emptor
January 22, 2008
Analyzing Homebuilder Risks | seekingalpha.com
1. Unsold Inventory will increase in 2008. 2. Gross margins will seem to be inflated but this should be analyzed closely as this could be skewed by previous impairments. 3. Well-managed companies will survive this bear market and shine in the long run.
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David KellerFormer Chief Financial OfficerTechnical Olympic USA Inc.
What is the 2008 outlook for homebuilding?
January 14, 2008
Analyzing Homebuilder Risks | seekingalpha.com
What will happen in 2008 for the homebuilding industry? Will cash be generated? Will there be failures? Will there be profits?
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Steve BottfeldPrincipalMarketing Solutions
WHAT REALLY IMPACTS THE FUTURE OF LAS VEGAS REAL ESTATE
January 2, 2008
LV Valley housing still in the basement | lvrj.com
The one constant in Las Vegas is change. Sadly, too many analysts suffer from marketing myopia when they examine change. They’re like the boxer who can see the jab, but misses the uppercut. Take a close look at the housing statistics for 2007. They are terrible, no matter from which angle you examine them. The doomsayer analysts gleefully tell you they are evidence of change in the credit markets or changes in pricing structures which become insurmountable obstacles to purchase activity. But, that analysis is only partly correct.
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David KellerFormer Chief Financial OfficerTechnical Olympic USA Inc.
Income tax update for homebuilders
December 31, 2007
INCOME TAX UPDATE FOR HOMEBUILDERS | online.wsj.com
What are the econonmic and cash impacts from a tax standpoint of large impairment losses recorded by homebuilders? How/when can cash be recovered from these losses?
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David KellerFormer Chief Financial OfficerTechnical Olympic USA Inc.
Homebuilding Gross Margins May Not Be What They Seem
December 31, 2007
Homebuilding Gross Margins May not Be What They Seem | online.wsj.com
Some reported gross margins from home sales may appear to be higher than they really are. Investors should be alert for situations where reported gross margins are inflated by prior inventory writedowns.
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Howard LiggettPresident and CEODistressed Real Estate Consulting Services, Inc.
December 27, 2007
Public Housing Coming Down in New Orleans | www.cbsnews.com
"Modular" used to be a dirty word in the building industry, bringing up images of hucksters touting crackerjack-box homes plopped down on a street corner or a vacant lot. Not any more and modular does not mean "mobile" as in double-wide trailer. What is more,modular homes typically cost 10 to 15 percent less than comparable stick-built homes.
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