All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Homebuilding

Hig rise condos blink

December 27, 2007

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Valley Ho alters plan, turns condo units into hotel suites | www.azcentral.com

Here’s an example of a conversion from an older hotel property in an OK but not great location losing its momentum. The per unit cost of the renovation will prevent a reasonable return from being realized for the current owners. The only investment hope will come after the monetization of losses in a subsequent transfer to new ownership with a new plan for a product which meets the then market, whether sale housing or not. 

Steve BottfeldPrincipalMarketing Solutions

AN UNHAPPY HOLIDAY; A HAPPY NEW YEAR

December 19, 2007

Analysis of:Gambling on Las Vegas Real Estate | www.nuwireinvestor.com

    The housing Grinch appears to be packing his bags this holiday season and getting ready to leave Las Vegas.  November’s housing statistics suggest that Las Vegas may be the first major market in the United States to begin recovery.  It was reported that the Grinch, who has a degree in economics, learned that inventory dropped sharply.  Knowing that inventory is a leading indicator and sales/pricing is a lagging indicator, the Grinch knew that the Christmas bells were tolling for him.

Kenneth EganBroker and RealtorRe/Max All Cities Realty

I hate to be a pesssimist, but...

December 5, 2007

Analysis of:Economy Faces Test from Housing Slide | www.bendbulletin.com

We are very early in terms of the impact on our economy. 2008 will see more non-performing loans, and builders will go belly-up. The loss of the home ATM has taken trillions out of the economy, and with that spending gone, the impact will trickle beyond the builders, to construction material providers of commodities and equipment, as well as general employment.  We are seeing debt-laden builders trying to generate cash, and lumber companies going into bankruptcy.  2008 will be extremely difficult.  What will the impact be of a 20% drop in residential real estate prices??

Jon WatsonPrincipalJon Watson Consulting

Crash or blip?

November 23, 2007

Analysis of:Guardian Business: House price slowdown continues for second month; Sharp market correction is 'a real possibility' | www.guardian.co.uk

There is no doubt that housing market activity has declined sharply over the last few months, with listing volumes down by 30% from September 2006 to September 2007.  Unlike the USA, it is doubtful that this will lead to significant price falls, but the reduced volumes are likely to continue.  What are the implications for providers of homes and services in the sector? 

Yesterday’s hot homebuilding areas and what we can learn from what we see

November 19, 2007

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Price slump eating away home equity | www.sacbee.com

Sacramento is a unique large metro area tied to Northern California Bay Area’s coastal communities by commuting distances and to California’s Central Valley by it’s location n the northern portion of that 500 mile long N/S by 100 mile E/W area. The Bay Area is the home of Silicon alley with its world leading technology community and to San Francisco City with its enormous financial, professional and international assets. The Central Valley merely produces 25 % of the food this country grows. Moreover, Sacramento is the Capital of California with its 35 million residents and the 6th largest economy in the world. Yet Sacramento is isolated enough that it can be seen as a microcosm of the housing conditions throughout most of California.

Steve BottfeldPrincipalMarketing Solutions

A NEW PERSPECTIVE ON HOUSING DEMAND: The Next Las Vegas Boom

November 19, 2007

Analysis of:LOCAL HOUSING SHORTAGE AHEAD, REPORT PREDICTS | www.lvrj.com

     The NAHB has predicted that the real estate downturn will bottom in the first or second quarter of 2008. Several recent studies have indicated that the balance in housing “fundamentals” may be slowly returning to normal.        These studies concentrate on supply and demand. Virtually all of them correctly analyze supply. Virtually none of them correctly analyze demand.            Changing demand is a major reason why Las Vegas may very well be the first market out of the housing slump. It is also the reason why some major builders may not recover as quickly as the NAHB has predicted.           In the 1980’s, a home entertainment center was required to sell a home. In today’s market, the home must be in the center of “entertainment” to be sold.

Steve BottfeldPrincipalMarketing Solutions

CAN YOU SPELL "ASSUME"?

November 12, 2007

Analysis of:A Bank Bet on Condos, but Buyers Want Out | www.nytimes.com

Mr. Burns makes two assumption errors in what is otherwise an outstanding analysis regarding the "near-future" of condominium development. His assumption regarding  attitudes towards HOA's is incorrect ... as is his statement that the Hi-Rise condo market in Las Vegas will succumb to the current economic environment. 

Charles IrschPrincipal10point2 Consulting

The Race to Zero

November 9, 2007

Analysis of:Tousa retains Kroll Zolfo Cooper to review restructuring options | www.reuters.com

- Bad idea from the start. - Now what does one do?

Where does Phoenix housing go from here?

November 6, 2007

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Opportunities essential for drawing 'knowledge workers' | www.azcentral.com

The U.S. is going to do a major portion of the thinking for the world, prepare its economic plans and source its finances if the country is to continue its primary world power status. Recent results indicate that the growing knowledge economies will feature a world class international airport and/or a seaport along the coast.

Jim BelfiorePresidentBelfiore Real Estate Consulting

Credit Availability will Determine Future

November 2, 2007

Analysis of:Fresh Credit Worries Grip Markets | online.wsj.com

When making your determination on the future of the economy, how many units will be sold next year, or how many people will move to Phoenix, consider how banks have reacted to bad news this year; the statistics above; and how lenders may react to bad news next year.

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