All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Financial Forecasting & Analysis

Government Doesn't like Currency Competition.

December 5, 2008

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:e-Bullion's lawyer blasts new government claims, says seizure of funds "not authorized" | www.thestandard.com

Whether or not the government's claims of fraud, money-laundering, and ponzi-schemes are valid remains to be seen, but the government has a long history of being touchy about any preceived attempt to create an alternative "currency".

http://www.economist.com/theworldin/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12494482

December 5, 2008

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Two Views About the Spanish Economy: The Outsider; The Insider | www.economist.com

There is already a great misunderstanding about Spain; Spanish Politics and Spanish Economy. I believe the article from Mr. Thomas Catan add to that confusion rather than clarify the real situation. Investor who may be thinking about Spain should have both view to decide what they should be doing in the next two years.

Bailout maybe...but with strings attached

November 3, 2008

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Chrysler makes a poor fit for GM | www.freep.com

There is no question that if both GM and Chrysler are allowed to totally fail it would add match and fuel to the downward trajectory of our economy. Thousands of unemployed workers, pension and medical payments reduced, huge enemployment and welfare expenses, etc. There is also collateral damage, i.e., tens of thousands of additional layoffs at vendors, dealers across the country. We have already become indebted to the Chinese through bond sales and sold equity pieces of our financial industry to Asian, European, and Middle Eastern controlled entities. Now we can't to allow the stalwarts of our auto and eventually airline industries to be abandoned as well. This has been the plan of those who would if not been our enemies, at least been our competitors for more than a decade. We certainly cannot be defeated militarily (at least not while we spend what is left of our debt ceiling on war plans). They defeat us by letting capitalism and market freedom gone wild collapse on itself.

Jack LiftonManaging DirectorJack Lifton, LLC

Neither Chrysler Nor GM Has Any Further Business Reason To Exist. The Government Shouldn't Stave Off the Inevitable Just For A Few Votes

October 27, 2008

Analysis of:Chrysler makes a poor fit for GM | www.freep.com

Is the American Government smart enough to see that the average American has already written off General motors, Ford, and Chrysler? The proposed bailout of any of these mismanaged train wrecks is nothing of the sort; it would be rather a stimulant to a dying industry intended to get an unrepresentative government past yet another election offering no change at all to the status quo. It is, as always with government programs, robbing the future to keep up the appearances of the present as a work-in-progress instead of a dead end.

Nitish GroverPrincipal, OwnerNitish Grover and Associates

Accounting and Fair Value Considerations - Monetary Policy - Market Corrections - Financial Statements

September 22, 2008

Analysis of:Punctured Bubblenomics- Understanding the Shrinking Economy | www.nytimes.com

As I  look at the troubles facing the financial world and global economy as a bystander and a involved person (as  a  finance professional) I actually see  a  certain amount of  humor in the entire situation. Monetary policy during  the  last  few  years did not follow the basics which I learnt at college, accounting got embroiled in politics. The number of  esoteric instruments being invented were just too many. In several cases these instruments were designed to get around rules which would have brought out their fair value. Those who blame fair value should instead blame the managements of institutions which were always trying to outmaneuver the market instead of improving productivity and generating real wealth. In this analysis I look at these various conundrums from an accounting and earnings perspective.

Robert KempProfessorUniversity of Virginia - CC

Valuation - The Trick Is In The Fundamentals

August 25, 2008

Analysis of:Kazakh rival lifts ENRC stake to block bid | www.ft.com

To accept or reject an offer to sell all or part of a company is a challenge.  There are two issues.  First is the maximization of shareholder value.  The second is understanding the basis of conflicting valuations. 

Nitish GroverPrincipal, OwnerNitish Grover and Associates

Risk Modeling and Financial Returns

August 22, 2008

Analysis of:Risk Models | www.glgroup.com

The measurement  of  value  at  risk  in  financial modeling  is  a  generic concept  and has  existed  since time  immemorial - even  before  the  current  sophistication  set  into financial  decision making  starting around  50  years  back. In  this  analysis  I  take  a  look  at  the  various  inputs   which  go into the  construction  of  a  valuation  model for financial  instruments.

Nitish GroverPrincipal, OwnerNitish Grover and Associates

Risk , Uncertainty and Earnings - The age old paradigms

August 13, 2008

Analysis of:Risk is hated universally | economictimes.indiatimes.com

Risk and uncertainty are two different paradigms. When analysts and decision makers do not measure risk properly then it becomes uncertainty. In this  analysis  I  take  a  look  at  the  effect  on  earnings  of  both  risk  and  uncertainty  and  how  they  effect  the  financial  statements.

Nitish GroverPrincipal, OwnerNitish Grover and Associates

The Banking Scenario - Subprime Accounting Issues - Basel II - Changing Regulatory Landscape

July 15, 2008

Analysis of:Fed Calls for Tighter Regulation of Banks | www.ft.com

The  Federal Reserve  wants  more  supervisory  and  control  powers  over  banks  while  saying  that  banks  should  be  allowed  to  fail. Basel  II guidelines  are  around  the  corner. It  is  a  moot  point  as  to  what  extent  these  will  add  to  the  stability  of  the  financial  system  till  the  banks  learn  to  first  manage  their  own  risk  portfolio. In  this  analysis  I  look  at  the  changing  regulatory  landscape  in  relation  to  evolving  accounting  issues and  where  we  could  possibly  be  heading.

The Weather Channel Auction Demonstrates Restraint by Potential Bidders

July 9, 2008

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:NBC, Blackstone and Bain buy Weather Channel | www.ft.com

The Weather Channel sale by privately held Landmark Communications to NBCU and private equity affiliates of Blackstone Group and Bain Capital for a reported $3.5 billion demonstrates that potential bidders such as CBS (recent buyer of CNET for $1.8b), Viacom, Liberty, and TW are being extremely careful when it comes to signficant network assets.  The auction lasted seven months, with Time Warner dropping out over the price.  According to Kagan's the Economics of Basic Cable Networks, TWC had $130m of Cash Flow in 2007.  Other sources of income include "a top 15 web site, the No. 1 mobile content provider, the world's leading B2B weather business and the No.1 weather radar provider".  According to MultiChannel News, Landmark originally sought as much as $5 billion.  Reports suggest that TWC had overall EBITDA of as much as $276m, indicating a multiple of 12.5x.  TWC has an outstanding brand, perishable programming, a strong web presence and multiple revenue sources.

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