All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Exchanges & Capital Markets

Are "bookies" a gamble in The Great Recession?

May 18, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Ladbrokes profits hit by Cheltenham | uk.reuters.com

Ladbrokes' trading statement today really blames recent profit falls on "bad luck".  We, the punters, are meant to reel off the hard luck stories when we lose to them.  However, bookies also can get hit in a pretty uncontrollable way when hot favourites deliver, as they did in this year's Cheltenham Festival.  The real question, though, is whether The Great Recession will see more, or less, money staked generally.  Is betting seen as a luxury to be curtailed as disposable income comes under pressure, or a potential source of additional income?

Michael LynchConsultantMichael E. Lynch

U.S.A. faces turbulent financial future with dire political consequences

May 14, 2009

Analysis of:The Almighty Renmimbi | www.nytimes.com

Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University, reported on May 14 in the New York Times that the Chinese renmimbi could replace the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. In the 19th Century, the British Empire was dominant and the pound sterling was the world’s reserve currency. But the United Kingdom became a debtor nation during the second World War and the U.S.A. became dominant. The dollar took over as the reserve currency. Professor Roubini suggests that we are now entering the Asian Century with a dominant China and its currency. The dollar will not quickly vanish but it is challenged by the renmimbi. For America, financing budget and trade deficits cheaply would vanish. In the past, empires that held the reserve currency were creditors, not debtors. Today the U.S. has fallen into the category of a debtor nation, relying on foreign creditors who have become uneasy. The downfall of the dollar is a matter of time unless U.S. financial policy is changed.

Paradigm Shift in European Cash Clearing

May 11, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:LCH.Clearnet slashes fees by a third | www.ft.com

The recent move by LCH Clearnet to slash its fees is a direct result of the recent moves by the European based MTF's to gain access to liquidity pools within the established clearers in Europe. As a condition of gaining access to such liquidity pools, and as an incentive to move volumes away from emerging clearers such as EMCF (European Multilateral Clearing facility), clearers such as LCH Clearnet are bowing to pressure by reducing their clearing fees significantly. In exchange. the clearers are forcing interoperability on the market which will shift some of the MTF flows away from the emerging clearers to the established clearers.

European Markets are affected by the "Concept" of Unfounded Confidence!!!

May 6, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:FTSE 100 heads for biggest monthly gain in 17 years | www.telegraph.co.uk

Implications: 1.FTSE - Largest Monthly gain in 17 years is based upon OTIMISM not a cleasr Financial Foundation. 2.The FTSE Index has risen by 2.2pc - clearly not an indicator of a sustainable Economic Turnaround. Unsubstantiated data May cause future re-allocations inthe forecast. 3.Speculation has, indeed, INFLUENCED consumer confidence. The question , at hand, is SPECULATION. 4.Analysts' provide Estimates - only. The salient point is the foundation of information and the assumption of the underlying variables. 5.The UK consumer is reacting to a "Spark" of hope , which MAY NOT be realistic Finanacial Information but, manipulatation of data!!!

Is it a good time to start buying into Singapore equities again?

April 27, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:It is a good time to start buying into Singapore equities again? | hwhglobal.ning.com

Singapore is in its deepest recession in the last 25 years. The aging population in Singapore is an issue. We are essentially a service oriented economy.

What is happening to the U.S.?

April 27, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:It is a good time to start buying into Singapore equities again? | hwhglobal.ning.com

High Unemployment Low Consumption Negative Growth Banking and Financial sector in 'limbo' Deflation Re-inflation

Asian Financial Crisis: Investors Subscribe To the Withdrawal of Capital due to Financial Leveraging!

April 24, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Asian markets trim gains after weaker China growth | www.telegraph.co.uk

Implications: 1. All Emerging Markets will feel the Rath of Sales Declining at a rapid pace. 2.Pysychological Impact will have a direct correlation - " Halted Trading for the 11th time with in this year". A monumental impact on both traders and investors. 3.The most salient issue is the errosion of an of a pre -emenent Slowing Economy: A material act of consequence! 4.The Japanese and South Korean markets have illustrated the full impact ofa failing economic posture! 5.The key to success - Asian Leaders helping eachother to combat the growing Global Financial Crisis! A Material Advancement to all parties for the welfare od "ALL" players in the game of Financial Innovation!

Recovery of Asian and Other Emerging Markets will be Slow

April 21, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Asian markets trim gains after weaker China growth | www.telegraph.co.uk

Emerging markets suffer from three problems. First is the lack of timely, accurate and complete information. Second, they all had real estate bubbles that left their own share of home grown toxic assets. Third, state owned banking systems that will have as much if not more difficulties disposing of the bad loans. In China the stimulus package has actually made the situation worse.

Michael LynchConsultantMichael E. Lynch

Nowhere to hide as general worldwide Great Depression looms

April 21, 2009

Analysis of:Spain’s Falling Prices Fuel Deflation Fears in Europe | www.nytimes.com

Nelson D. Schwartz in Valencia, reported in the April 21 issue of the New York Times that Spain’s merchants are beginning to cut retail prices. Many of them have never done that before. In March, prices dipped across the board from restaurants to supermarkets. The nation’s unemployment rate, already 15.5% is nearing 20%. Economists fear that Spain may be falling into deflation. Another Great Depression may be at hand. Last month, Spain became the first country using the euro to record a negative inflation rate. Food prices declined. Lorenzo Amor, president of the Association of Autonomous Workers announced that “Alarm bells are going off.” In addition to Spain, Luxembourg, Portugal and Ireland have reported price drops. In Germany, wholesale prices fell 8% in March. Simon Johnson at MIT is concerned that deflation could spread to the United States. Arturo Virosque of the Valencia Chamber of Commerce noted that there is a lack of confidence in Europe’s politicians.

Justin HupetConsultantJustin Hupet

Institutional Investors Participation in Recent Equities Market Rally: A Canadian Perspective

April 20, 2009

Analysis of:financial times ft.com | www.ft.com

The major Canadian equities market index, the S&P/TSX Composite Index, is up 5% YTD (up 25% since March 9th, 2009) ; with the overall value traded down 27%, and volume up roughly 18% compared with the same period last year on a year-over-year basis.  The number of transactions is up 26% YTD vs. the same period last year.  The TSX Venture exchange (which consists of micro and small capitalization companies) is up 24% YTD.  The consensus among institutional investors in Canada, as elsewhere around the globe, remains divided.  A few things likely need to occur before the majority of the naysayers move toward the other camp, such as; a visible and sustainable improvement in the global economy, a broad-based recovery in corporate earnings, a steady and meaningful increase in the prices of commodities, a slowdown or reversal in the recent rate of increase in the unemployment rate, more balanced conditions in the housing market, and a significant positive shift in consumer confidence.

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