All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Exchanges & Capital Markets

Nitish GroverPrincipal, OwnerNitish Grover and Associates

Securities, Rating Agencies, Accounting, True Value and Fair Value - A Paradigm Look

July 14, 2009

Analysis of:SEC to Create Group to Check Rating Agencies | www.ft.com

The referred article speaks of the efforts of the SEC to monitor and police credit rating agencies. This is ofcourse a welcome proposal. However, it will also have an effect on accounting and the measurement of true value and fair value of securities. In this analysis I take a look at these aspects and how we can expect the rating business to change and also the manner in which values as associated with securities are measured.

Michael LynchConsultantMichael E. Lynch

Felix Rohatyn, strong and respected American financier, issues warning sure to be ignored

July 1, 2009

Analysis of:Saving American capitalism | www.nytimes.com

  Felix Rohatyn, in an editorial in the New York Times issue of June 29 noted that Europeans were fascinated by the economic freedom that is fundamental to American capitalism. But the practice of that has become different from the theory. The U.S. began to diverge from Europe in the 1980s as a result of population growth plus greater investment in technology. By the 1990s, changes in the U.S. corporate culture plus easy money resulted in astonishing levels of wealth. Management and directors collected hundreds of millions while thousands of employees lost their jobs. These events struck at the heart of market capitalism. The problems began in the 1980s with a shift away from an industrial economy. Repeal of Glass-Steagall allowed to banks to enter the securities field. The Enron collapse resulted in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. It is late in the day to restore faith and confidence. The administration must engage the Congress to return to American market capitalism.

Marshall MaysFounder & DirectorEmerging Alpha Advisors, Ltd.

Perpetual mispricing machine - Durable misconceptions about Asia’s markets

July 1, 2009

Analysis of:Asian stocks struggle to gain ground | www.ft.com

1. China's growth, a two-decade-old story, has been rewarding on average to those allowed to tap it, but access price has been high and the disappointments painful. We face huge risk of another one now, at a time other exporters and financial investors can least afford it. When might a publicly disclosed slow-down arise? Will bank performance be the symptom or the cause? 2. Japan is clearly more linked to China's growth than other rich countries, so China's problems are Japan's. Can the accumulation of improvements in Japan make up for the weight of a continued slow-down in PRC demand? 3. If the current risk is no worse than that elsewhere, what about the long term prospects? Are they superior to those elsewhere? Are current earnings multiples justified? If not now, when?

Harnath SithamrajuConsultantHarnath Sithamraju

Caveat Emptor

June 19, 2009

Analysis of:Looking to Buy Gold? Grab a Sack of Quarters First | www.nytimes.com

When all else fails buy gold.Making gold into a glittering alternative investment. But gold or any precious metal is no substitute to cash.

Michael LynchConsultantMichael E. Lynch

Will ordinary people embrace gold as a medium of exchange?

June 18, 2009

Analysis of:Looking to Buy Gold? Grab a Sack of Quarters First | www.nytimes.com

Carter Dougherty in Frankfurt reported in the June 18 issue of the New York Times that Thomas Geissler has invented a vending machine that dispenses pieces of gold. Customers will be able to buy 1, 5 and 10 gram mini-ingots, Canadian Maple Leaf and South African Kruger-rands. His plan has a strong appeal in Germany where hyperinflation wiped out savings twice in the 20th Century. The concept of gold dispensers came to Mr. Geissler as he considered how to advertise his online market place for precious metals. Within three month, his TG-Gold-Super-Markt plans to have machines running in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. Eventually he plans to install 500 machines around the world. His company, is showing off a prototype in Frankfurt. They will be armored and he plans to test them with explosives before placing them in Russia and other dangerous nations. The market in Germany is 150 tons/year. A greater demand for gold followed the beginning of the credit crisis last year.

Michael LynchConsultantMichael E. Lynch

BRIC nations gather to discuss “belling the American cat”

June 16, 2009

Analysis of:Emerging Powers Prepare to Meet in Russia | www.nytimes.com

Clifford J. Levy in Moscow reported in the June 16 issue of the New York Times that the four leaders of the BRIC group (Brazil, Russia, India and China) gather today to consider how they can gain more control over the global financial system. No Americans or West Europeans will attend. It is the first major summit of the group and intends demand a louder voice in world affairs. Russia is interested in sending a strong message to Washington, D.C. The Kremlin aims to undermine the dollar as the dominant medium of exchange in global trade. Russia would also like to see a shift in the status of reserve currencies with less emphasis on the U.S. dollar. The BRIC countries comprise 15% of the world economy. Together they hold 40% of global reserves. Both Russia and Brazil have been vocal about the need to scale back the role of the U.S. in the global financial system. China, as well, is concerned. These three think the stimulation taking place in the U.S. economy will lead to inflation.

Diamonds vs Gold

June 3, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:De Beers woos investors seeking haven | www.ft.com

De Beers and other major players in the diamond industry are now supporting the concept of diamonds as an investment alternative to Gold. This prompts the following questions: - Why is this relevant now? - What are the investment merits of diamonds? - How do Diamonds compare to Gold?

Revisiting VNIndex Performance by Market Cap

June 2, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Vietnam Emerges from the Crisis | asiasentinel.com

From its bottom at 235.5 which it hit on February 24th, the VNIndex has had a phenomenal recovery increasing 80.7%. We wanted to take a look behind the numbers.

Michael LynchConsultantMichael E. Lynch

New U.S. administration caught on the horns of a cruel dilemma

May 25, 2009

Analysis of:As Dollars Pile Up, Uneasy Traders Lower the Currency’s Value | www.nytimes.com

Jack Healy reported in the May 9 issue of the New York Times that the dollar was sought as a safe hiding place amid a global downturn but many are rethinking that. The dollar fell to $1.40 against the Euro on Friday. Experts said that flight to quality during the height of the crisis was now moving the other way. Psychology is driving the dollar down according to David M. Darts at Morgan Stanley. The Federal Reserve is printing money. The government is issuing trillions of dollars in new debt. There may not be enough buyers for the Treasuries. Standard & Poor’s threat to downgrade the sovereign credit rating of the United Kingdom, causes investors worry about the United States sovereign credit rating. Pimco’s Bill Gross said the U.S. could eventually lose its triple-A score. The dollar slide has refocused investors on other currencies and commodities. Charles I. Plosser, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia warned the risk of inflation may be greater than believed.

Distressed Credit Analysis

May 21, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Freescale Cautionary LBO Tale | blogs.wsj.com

Examines various constituencies in the distressed credit markets such as hedge funds, private equity funds, CLOs/CDOs and their lawyers and finacial advisors and how there different motiviations and how they should or may strategically position themeselves.  Major issues to be aware when anyalyzing distressed credits and how they are playing out in the market and in court.

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