All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Economics
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
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Sam TimpanoPresidentSam Timpano & Associates
The first issue is to characterize the Treasury Plan as a bailout. It is not that at all.
September 29, 2008
Everybody Calm Down. A Government Hand In the Economy Is as Old as the Republic. | www.washingtonpost.com
With all due respect to the author, Washington is not the appropriate President to site as the authority that foresaw the current financial and economic issues we are facing today. Nor would many other Presidents be good examples. Not, Kennedy, nor Carter, nor Regan or even Clinton. In point of fact, each of these Presidents had no idea of where our financial system was moving, nor the implications of what "innovative financial engineering" was producing in the 20th and 21st century in which America lead the world. While Secretary Paulson has done a great job in creating a program that would address the needs of the global markets facing this potential meltdown of the US financial system, he is perhaps the worst "dog and pony show" man ever to have had to make a presentation to a not so intelligent audience.
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September 24, 2008
An Admirable Response to the Crisis | maxkapital.wordpress.com
The article looks at the government response to the crisis as it unfolds.
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Dollar: Short-term Falls and Long-term Stability
September 23, 2008
The Death of the $ | maxkapital.wordpress.com
Every time the US economy passes through a financial crisis of sorts, it is fashionable to predict the end of the dollar or at least the demise of its strength. I feel that such prognosis has little significance for all the industry players with a sound product and competitive advantage brought about by technology and innovation. This in no way understates the loss prospects of all those who use tactics and speculation to make a quick buck, about whom none need feel sorry. If Uncle Sam really wanted to help the poor own up homes with no sub-prime crisis at all, the policy should have been one of providing home finance vouchers for the needy and deserving in order to bring down the burden of payments. In such a case a relatively modest budget allocation would have done the trick and helped the deserving instead of the present case of bailing out finance houses that have gambled. As long as the rest of the world continues to respect the $, short term falls mean little.
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To Kill the $, You'd Have to Move Most of the People to Another Planet First
September 23, 2008
The Death of the $ | maxkapital.wordpress.com
As most of the economic phenomena are not based on economic theory but on behavioural ( intuitional ) behaviour of the public ( see e.g. the “Crash of 1929” ), the same behavioural basics are at play now. In the US, the public perception is all-important as the source of substantial shifts of “wealth desire” of individuals. Public can be made to feel worse if deems the taxes go to unworthy programmes. If public approves federal spending expenditures, it makes no difference which way ( i.e. current taxes, or debt issuance ) they are obtained. So, as they are, mostly and basically, behavioral responses to the FED policies, that’s why the FED props only financial institutions that have over-all public cognizance and appeal. From all of that follows ( see the COMMENTARY below ) that inflation is not linked to ( federal ) deficits. It merely represent the cost associated with present market ( interest ) rates from rising.
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September 23, 2008
The Death of the $ | maxkapital.wordpress.com
A penny for your thoughts is an age old saying. We wonder whether it should soon cost a $.
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Economic Meltdown Catches Companies Off Guard
September 17, 2008
Hiring Buoyant Despite Turnover (China) | www.chinadaily.com.cn
The Hudson report would have been distributed without fuss if it had been released a week earlier. It's difficult to put your best foot forward when your China hiring report is released as a major financial institution has just gone into a major meltdown. The report is as in-depth and accurate as you would normally expect from Hudson. The results have to be re-adjusted downwards though. Trends should be much the same as in the report but the optimism is much less warranted. The details of the report show the coming problems in China, with some companies already able to offer lower salaries and hire successfully. Historically, this hasn't happened since before 2001.
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The $ 850 billion dollar sure thing
September 15, 2008
Made (again) in America | money.cnn.com
The US economy could be $ 850 billion stronger if the trade balance were simply put back into near balance. A good majority of these jobs would be higher paying manufacturing jobs. The adjustment process could take 10 years or more and would require a shift in our prevailing economy position with respect to obligations under WTO rules.
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MADE IN USA-America's Long Road Ahead In This Shift Of Paradigm
September 15, 2008
Made (again) in America | money.cnn.com
The weakening of the Dollar triggered (or not triggered as some argue), by the rapid rise in energy prices, has initiated massive economic paradigm shifts across the globe, not the least of which being the USA finding its way back to doing what the USA used to do best. Manufacturing, Innovation and Exports. Whilst the preliminary indications placing the USA on this path, look promising, it is nevertheless a long, and most likely painful path for the USA economy to get on to the right track. Is the USA economic and industrial infrastructure ready to meet all the challenges ahead?
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Understanding Productivity Growth and the Business Cycle
September 12, 2008
Productivity Jumps as Costs Fall | online.wsj.com
The U.S. economy is at a pivotal point, and this data release provides important information about the direction the economy may take over the next six to twelve months. There is good news and bad news in the report: Lower unit labor costs suggest that the Fed will be less worried about inflation in its upcoming meeting. On the other hand, the jump in productivity growth likely reflects downsizing by businesses rather than the onset of sustained growth. Overall the article, coupled with the labor market report released the same day, has to nudge up the likelihood of a recession. The question is really only how severe or sustained the downturn will be.
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Free Trade Agreements and U.S. Companies
August 21, 2008
South Korea and EU Begin Free Trade Talks | news.bbc.co.uk
The U.S. is becoming increasingly protectionist just as the Europeans, previously known for their protectionism, are opening their markets to trade with developing and emerging countries in Asia, Africa, and other regions. This could spark a long-term decline in U.S. prosperity and reduce the ability of U.S. companies to compete internationally as parts of their global supply chains become harder to maintain. With a Democratic Congress and a Democratic Presidential candidate firmly in the pocket of the trade unions, which abhor free trade and never encountered a protectionist measure they didn't like, the American dream may soon become a fond and distant memory.
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