All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Economics
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
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Why MOst Macro Economists Were Wrong About Asia's Strength
March 10, 2009
NOBODY talks about decoupling anymore | www.economist.com
Decoupling of Asia from the rest of the world, and most importantly, the United States was always more a hope than a reality. I've been working with detailed trade flow data for Asia and the rest of the world for years and could easily see that much of what is traded within Asia is used as intermediate inputs in finished products shipped to the United States and Europe. Asia's economy is linked to the rest of the world because it is overly dependent upon trade with most of that trade with the United STates. One interesting statistic is that in 2006 the United States trade deficit equaled 3.5% of the GDP of all other countries except the United States. In terms of GDP associated with traded products the US deficit share equaled almost 7%. If Asia could decouple, then it must wean itself from dependence upon exports as the major driver in their economies.
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March 9, 2009
NOBODY talks about decoupling anymore | www.economist.com
Please see my recent blog post on this topic: "Decoupling is Dead," on www.emergingmarketsoutlook.com. It discusses my findings from a recent business trip to Belarus, which until recently thought it was insulated from the global economic crisis but is now finding out otherwise.
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Back to Nationalization of Banks
March 3, 2009
GLG News Commentary: Stress tests and temporary nationalization of US banks | www.bloomberg.com
All these years the IMF and World Bank were preaching the virtues of privateization of banks to the developing countries. Suddenly the financial crisis and the deep economic recession have changed all that in the very developed and advanced countries as the major US banks like Bank of America, City groups etc have been on the verge of bankruptcy and if the US government allowed those banks to die the way they allowed Lehman groups to die , it would have desroyed the entire banking and monetary system and the cofidence of people in banks . Rightly, the US government decided to step in to support those banks by injecting the capital in the form of prefereed shares. In turn the government may impose some conditions on those banks in public interest like more rigorous risk management systems and procedures, and even some restrictions on executive pays and traders bonuses etc.
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Stress Tests Will Raise More Questions and Delay Crisis Resolution
March 2, 2009
GLG News Commentary: Stress tests and temporary nationalization of US banks | www.bloomberg.com
Ms. Christie's article is of great importance, because the actions of the authorities in dealing with this phase of the ongoing financial crisis will largely determine how long it goes on and how much damage it does. There is confusion over the very nature of capital, let alone its amount and over the proper roles of government and the banks in the economy.
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NOBODY talks about decoupling anymore
February 27, 2009
NOBODY talks about decoupling anymore | www.economist.com
see below
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Hong Kong Stock Exchange remains unable to provide adequate disclosure rules
February 26, 2009
Tycoons in the ascendant, THe Economist | www.economist.com
Hong Kong stock exchange killed a rule that would allow for more transparency Hong Kong stock exchange regulation has fundamental flaws that prevents transmission of accurate, complete and timely information. Insufficient, inaccurate or incomplete information makes the use of quantitative or fundamental analysis problematic.
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How will China Spend its US $2 trillion Foreign Exchange Reserve in 2009?
February 25, 2009
How will China Spend its US $2 trillion Foreign Exchange Reserve in 2009? | keeglobaladvisors.typepad.com
1. China is taking advantage of its keep pocket to secure natural resources supply 2. US Treasury Securities are no longer the only channel for China to release its foreign exchange reserves 3. RMB may stay stable or even go lower vs. US dollar
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Edward EttinFormer Deputy DirectorTHE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF
GLG News Commentary:Stress test and temporary nationalization of US banks
February 24, 2009
GLG News Commentary: Stress tests and temporary nationalization of US banks | www.bloomberg.com
Bernanke’s hearing before the US Senate Banking Committee clarified the mechanism and the intention.
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EU Presidency's Fallacy: Gas from Russia Is Not "Bilateral" But "Political" Problem
January 9, 2009
EU presidency says gas dispute "bilateral problem | www.reuters.com
The Czechs -- as the current EU head honchos -- seriously mislabeled the Russian stoppage of gas delivery via Ukraine judging from their reaction ( Reuters, Jan 2.) Calling the problem “..bilateral….( and) the conflict being just between two private companies..” ” is huge distortion of the facts. Firstly, Russian and Ukrainian gas companies are state monopolies; nothing private about it. Fact that Putin ordered Gazprom to stop all shipments through Ukraine on January 5 should be enough. Secondly, the move is highly politically charged and should be taken as a response to the Polish and Czech governments for letting the radar stations, for US ( and/or NATO ) anti-missile defence, build on Czech and Polish soil. Also, to show the rest of EU -- and, most of all, to the former peoples of USSR who are delighted by the "show of force"-- who is the real boss in Central Europe.
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More than a bilateral problem.
January 9, 2009
EU presidency says gas dispute "bilateral problem | www.reuters.com
Clearly, given events of the last week, this is more than a bilateral issue as the EU and the Czech presidency have become directly involved. The issue has highlighted some of the challenges the EU and many of its member states face with respect to energy security.
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