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All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Economics

Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.

Challenging the standard views

August 27, 2009

GLG Expert Contributor

Fireflies and seminars: how banks court Japan's older investors | www.ft.com

This article raise Japan ageing population massive financial assets topic. However what is the real picture behind this huge savings stock ?Savings to investments cycle is well rooted in Japan however key point remainto what extent investments in all type of foreign assets will continue after one year correction as Japanese savings outflows impact foreign risk assets.When recovery will show up who will finance Japan's ever expanding debt ?

The “Road to Nowhere”- The Delusion of the Burgeoning Public Sector

August 20, 2009

GLG Expert Contributor

Government debt soars as tax receipts fall | www.citywire.co.uk

The resolution to the problem of the state sector, and Britain's burgeoning public sector debt will not be painless. Whichever party wins the next general election they will need to implement: - cuts in jobs, public sector salary freezes and an ending of defined benefit pension schemes in the state sector - tax rises The outlook for the UK is far from rosy.

Ukraine: Heading to Recovery?

August 20, 2009

GLG Expert Contributor

Kiev predicts rebound from deep crunch | www.ft.com

Ukraine's real GDP contracted by 18 per cent in the second quarter, according to preliminary government figures. Some economists suggest that Ukraine is beginning to come out of recession, after a record 20.3 per cent contraction in 3Q2009. International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts suggest Ukraine's GDP will contract by about 14 per cent overall this year. Our forecast is that real GDP contraction in 2009 will be about 11% (+/-1%).

No Recovery Until Consumers Come Back

August 15, 2009

GLG Expert Contributor

U.S. Economy's Rusty Rebound | www.forbes.com

The data last week showed that consumers are not yet back from vacation. Until they start spending, the recovery will not take place. The danger of lower labor force participation and higher unemployment is casting a shadow over potential economic expansion.

Four Opportunities and Challenges for Domestic Private Express Enterprise

August 15, 2009

GLG Expert Contributor

Four Opportunities and Challenges for Domestic Private Express Enterprise | www.cecss.com

Four Opportunities and Challenges for Domestic Private Express Enterprise

We Reply to Washington Post Blast at Federal LTC Insurance

August 14, 2009

GLG Expert Contributor

"Federal Diary: Buyers of Long-Term Care Insurance Riled by Premium Increase" | www.washingtonpost.com

Although private long-term care insurers have had to increase premiums on in-place business, private LTCI remains a much better option than going bare and relying on the social safety net. My reply to a Washington Post column explains why.

Recovery Delusion

August 14, 2009

GLG Expert Contributor

The Road Ahead For The Global Economy | www.forbes.com

Economic recovery is not about to come soon. Recent indications of a turnaround in the economy should not be considered permanent, as they mainly result from hugely increased government spending. Long term changes in the savings rate of the US economy point towards a necessary structural type of adjustment before growth and full employment are restored. In addition, limited financing availability resulting from the financial crisis will not change in the short run, further restraining activity.

China Does What Every Sane Government Should be Doing Now, and Wins

August 12, 2009

GLG Expert Contributor

China's Rebound Gathers Steam | www.forbes.com

The Golden Rule of all, long-lasting, empires in the history, the adage: “ Bread and Circuses” should be the goal of every government – who wants to stay in power -- in the nowadays world. Thus, in the nowadays tupsy-turvy world, governments, should follow the advice, no matter what the macroeconomic gurus, having no idea what’s going on, suggest. Now, China ( perhaps mindful of its ancient heritage ) came to this conclusion and does everything to make its population happy.

USTR Rightfully Suggests That African Nations Get Their Own Houses In Order

August 10, 2009

GLG Expert Contributor

Kirk tells Africa to improve from within | www.ft.com

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) provides various trade preferences to African nations as a means to stimulate economic growth and development.  However, rather than resist extension of U.S. trade preferences they receive to other less-developed countries, African nations should look more closely how they might improve their own competitiveness from within, rather than relying principally on externally-supplied largesse.

Diran Majarian, Managing Director

Diran MajarianManaging DirectorAmalia Tankers Inc What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

The China Conundrum

August 9, 2009

Also crazy | www.my1510.cn

A great debate rages over whether China's economic model is sustainable.  Western economists often express fawning admiration of the success of this state capitalist model, some of the most virulent critics are Chinese.  There are issues of asset bubbles in real estate, massive export production overcapacity, missallocation of resources and a banking system riddled with non-performing loans. 

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