All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Commercial Market Trends

Confirming the Mutual Fund Link to the Boston Market Recovery

August 20, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Fidelity ‘done’ with layoffs from Boston Herald | www.bostonherald.com

I recently completed a study of net inflows to the mutual funds industry by geography and by type of fund. The Boston market is driven by the health of the funds. Net inflows have been up strongly all year. On that basis, I stated the the Boston office market recovery was underway. I believe Fidelity's statements today are the first of what will be many confirmations of this analysis, which you can find in full below.

Robert CanterPresident-FounderPerformance Realty Solutions, LLC

How the bad times keep on rolling in commercial real estate

August 11, 2009

Analysis of:Maguire results show bad times for commercial real estate | latimesblogs.latimes.com

The key element which this brief article highlights is the fact with re-financing near impossible and building rental prices going south very rapidly, which in turn puts increased downward pressure on total asset values, how can anyone say the bottom is near for commercial real estate.

Rising Vacancies Undermine Dublin Office Rents - Banks Facing Investor Risk

July 31, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Dublin office vacancy rate could hit 27% | www.propertyweek.com

Dublin office vacancy rate doubled between 2007-present Completion of buildings under construction will further exacerbate oversupply Rents on new Dublin office lettings have fallen by one-third in last 18 months. Further declines forecast until 2011 Survey evidence - rents on existing leases now being undermined by high vacancies, rent reversion and, potentially, new legislation In the coming months, banks will need to be aware of potential default by property investors as well as developers.

Commercial Real Estate Under Pressure From All Sides

July 18, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Commercial Real Estate: From Bad to Worse | www.forbes.com

Commercial real estate downturn relates to jobs, lending standards and the cash flow crisis plaguing virtually all business.

Robert CanterPresident-FounderPerformance Realty Solutions, LLC

REIT stock prices are on the rise…but what is really behind this latest scenario?

July 13, 2009

Analysis of:CRE Markets Yet to Hit Bottom, Analyst Tells Congressional Panel | reit.com

The most alarming element of this circumstance is once again naïve investors are being duped into believing the few REITS which are re-capitalizing through the equity markets will be standard bearers of a new REIT revival.  

Is this happening across the Globe? Or just a localised situation in the affected country.

June 29, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Desperate times for landlords | www.ft.com

Similarities between the Swine Flu & the Lower Rents for Landlords- This does not reflect the commercial / retail industry alone but across the board for all properties. Physical Properties & Equities - Too little with Too Much Where shall it be invested in? Reits? Local Companies? Developers? In this situation where we see the H1N1 aka Swine Flu first infecting the host country ( due to toxic habits) & then being 'transported' by global travellers, the same is also happening to our financial world economy. Should we be surprised by the manufacturing output being slow? Should we be surprised by slower consumer purchases?  Should we be surprised by lesser consumer pressence? In my country like Singapore, we are the financial hub for the Asean region with neighbouring countries with huge natural resources. Does this impact the way Funds flow to Singapore from developed countries?  Can we trust the current normal system & what can be done     

Jack KernManaging DirectorKern Investment Research

Restoring CMBS Key to Future CRE

June 26, 2009

Analysis of:Worries over systemic risk in CMBS | www.ft.com

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, through president Richard Dudley has made restoring CMBS a key priority. This is really good policy while it seems to contradict some of the earlier actions of the Fed, especially in light of the decisions about the eligibility of certain loan terms for loan participation. The ability of owners to refinance their obligations is what is really at stake here and with the advent of $3,400bn in loans coming due, failure to secure a working CMBS facility and market could be a disaster. The Fed's TALF program, with approximately $1,000bn in capital, starting in July is going to be a determining factor in how well the program works.

Sinking Desert Sands for Investors in the Dubai Property Market

June 25, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Dubai - one of the riskiest property markets | www.propertywire.com

Close on the heels of the overall global economic scenario, property investors in the much hyped and speculated Dubai markets got a rude awakening towards the 4th quarter of 2008 . Buildings in the desert were rising like lego blocks .Designer Apartments, Apartments offering all kinds of amenities leading to nirvana, villas set in the ocean on the fronds of the palm,miniature versions of different countries part of the much hyped about World Project.Bollywood stars like Shahrukh Khan competed with International bigwigs the Beckams,Hillary Swank.... Alas all the glitter and glamor were not to shine bright for a long time. With the economic slowdown came the pink slips and the heavy loan payouts were looming closer every month..To add to the misery the absence of a Local Residency not being possible made it difficult for the new owners to meet the loan commitments. Several high rises dot the horizon waiting to welcome their occupants..

A sharp rise in Demand for properties along the Red Metro Line

June 25, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Property prices could rise around metro stations in Dubai | www.propertywire.com

As witnessed globally in the real estate market, any change in infrastructure can bring about a direct change in the Property Prices in the vicinity. The much awaited Dubai Metro Red Line will bring about a meteoric rise in Rents and Property Prices for sure.The city which has a large expatriate population with their families will find a major relief in commuting within the city from September 2009. Currently the citys public transport system has only the RTA buses or the Public Taxis to fall back on.Both of which are non -practical. Waiting for long periods of time in the scorching desert heat was a ordeal suffered by residents for decades.People travelling by private cars also had to face a slightly heavy toll charge and also endure traffic jams. . With the Red line trudging along a major part of the city ,families will now try and move closer to the metro station in an attempt to solve their daily commuting problem.

Mr. Wood makes assumptions regarding residential constructionwithout facts

June 11, 2009

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

Analysis of:Construction Spending in the U.S. Unexpectedly Climbs | www.bloomberg.com

“Residential construction may be bottoming,” said Steven Wood, President of Insight Economics LLC in Danville, California. However, Mr. Wood provided no basis for his opinion. In fact he moved on to "public" construction" in the next sentence. Making statements without supporting the opinion is rather misleading or purposely misleading.

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