All GLG News Analyses Filed Under: Asset Management & Private Banking
Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.
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The Course of Monetary Policy:Irrelavent and Unstable due to "Policy Shifts"!
November 24, 2008
Money Rates Decline in Europe on Cash Injections, Rate Cut Bets | www.bloomberg.com
Implications: 1. The Cost of Borrowing FALLS due to Speculation? Unsound Financial judgement. 2. Money Markets present an appearance of improvement due to the central banks reliance of a liquidity provision: Fact or Fiction?. An unqualified position in the Economic/Financial Market. 3.Massive Cash injections and Reduction in Borrowing costs - a deepening recessionary cloud is in existence without a Sound and Grounded economic scenerio. 4.The Concept of Lending must must, still face the brunt of Trillions of Dollars in writedowns, losses of the sub-prime mortgage collapse and the prospect of additional corporate failures. 5.U.S. Corporations are, still, seeking a "Bailout" and world-wide Traders in the marketplace are "Betting" on an additional fall in the rate structure? A "Financial" catastrophe is evident!
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Tip of the iceberg- tweaking the nose, will not change the shape of the face!
October 20, 2008
India Cuts Cash Reserve Ratio, Pledges Funds to Banks | www.bloomberg.com
The RBI moves to reduce CRR by over 2.5 percentage points within a month, just indicates the inadequacy of the previous responses. Finance Minister, shri. Palaniappan Chidambarem, assuring of the stability of the banking system and that everything is being done to ensure liquidity. Next, the money account of the waivers announced to farmers, is also being passed on to the banking system, quite in time. Then where is the crisis., where is the demand for such huge money. wHAT IS THE REGULATOR OF STOCK EXCHANGES - SEBI DOING?, WHEN MANY FAMILIES ARE DYING, COMMITTING SUICIDES, DIVORCES AND WHAT NOT? CRISSIS OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEMS- MONETORY AND NON-MONETISED PARTS OF THE ECONOMY!
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Joe GarrettPrincipal ConsultantGarrett, Watts & Co
It's the loans, not the deposits
October 13, 2008
Wells Fargo scuppers Citigroup's takeover of Wachovia | www.guardian.co.uk
Sometimes you don't want to get what you've been hoping for. Wachovia has a top deposit gathering franchise, and they clearly help complete much of the Wells Fargo footprint.
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MUFG strategic thinking insider
October 7, 2008
Aberdeen in tie-up with MUFG | www.ft.com
MUFG already annouced 3 large stakeholder acquisitions worldwide. What is the mega bank strategic thinking , what is the ultimate goal ?
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Good life ahead for those who were responsible of the financial crisis
September 29, 2008
Accord on rescue plan | money.cnn.com
700 Billion dollars to golden parachutes, lawyers, politicians, wall street brokers, CEOs, CFOs, Senators, autonominated regulators and oversight.
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Leverage thrills, but kills the sell-side institutions.
September 17, 2008
CLSA's Wood Sees Another $1 Trillion in Credit Losses | www.bloomberg.com
Underlying causes of the financial meltdown are discussed, with hints at the possible solution for the Fed/government.
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A Higher Level of Balance Sheet Inequities Leads to a 7.5 Billion pd Capitalization Default!
September 8, 2008
Barclays May Face 7.5 Billion-Pound Capital Shortfall | www.bloomberg.com
Implications: 1.Common Equity is low compared to that of Securities Firms.A deviation does exist between the Securities Industry and the Banking Industry. The question, at hand, is the common ground? 2." A Large and Growing Equity Shortfall "has not kept pace with the Financial Institution's ability to absorp losses - hence re-capitalization. 3.It is , entirely possible, that the bank will, indeed, suffer a further erosion of capital due to additional write-downs and increasing consumer debt. 4.The true causation may , still, be unqualified with the exception of a Special Liquidity Scenerio: Allowing British lenders to swap mortgage- backed Securities for Government Bonds. 5.Investors are the ultimate victum as they must search for new methods of judging the Financial Strength of banks after world widwide wtitedowns seem to be the norm in the industry!
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As long term investors, Sovereign Wealth Funds may have the last laugh
August 25, 2008
Sovereign Wealth Fund Assets Could Triple by 2013 | www.bloomberg.com
The Sovereign Wealth Funds are long-term investors. We may find out as time passes who really is the greater fool. An investment in the best-of-best alternative investment firms may be more genius than foolishness. Blackstone is a premier player in alternative investments. With the S&P 500 index at 1280 it is lower now than it was in March of 1999, almost ten years ago. While the market appears to be quite reasonably priced, Blackstone happens to be loaded with cash and able to find assets to purchase at undervalued prices. In addition, they are the best India and China connected investment firm in the world, at a time investment opportunities abound in these countries. As the Goldman Sachs of alternative investments, in an environment where the world’s public and private pension funds are rapidly increasing their allocations to alternative investments these sovereign wealth funds may have done more research than those who may mistakenly consider them foolish.
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August 18, 2008
Sovereign Wealth Fund Assets Could Triple by 2013 | www.bloomberg.com
Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) have a lot of money. So they can buy advice. What they do with it is another matter. Investing in Blackstone was investing in a reputable firm at a bad time. So short term the investment looks bad. Long term is the the time horizon of SWF and in the longer term it may turn out fine.
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UBS Losses become Severe causing a "Re-engineering" of Business Components!
August 14, 2008
UBS to Split Investment Bank From Wealth Management | www.bloomberg.com
Implications: 1.The Causation of further losses : the Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis. 2.A Major change in Management to salvage the Net Losses of the Shareholder. 3.Net Money Outflows far exceed Cash Inflows - the Ultimate affect is Major Write-Downs by the Insitution. 4.Causation: Deterioration of a continuating Credit Market Turbalance - U.S residential Real Estate and the overall Credit Crisis. 5.UBS is required to make major changes in its Strategic Direction and will require " a comprehensive program to re-engineer it's business processes". 6.The "One Firm" business model is no longer an effective alternative for this Financial Institution. Material changes are mandated by Management.
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