Study Group: Weight Management Experts

GLG News^SM Analyses by this Study Group's Leading Experts(?)

Nutrisystem hits plateau. Is NTRI the next diet fad after Atkins?

October 4, 2007

Analysis by:Dirk Aschmoneit, Director of Food & Retail Marketing,

Analysis of:NutriSystem, Inc. Reports Preliminary Third Quarter 2007 Results, Authorizes Additional Share Repurchases and Establishes $200 Million Credit Facility | biz.yahoo.com

Evaluation of NTRI Q3 performance: Q3 underperformance is not an indicator of a fad diet. Competition and lack of new campaign are primary drivers of recent performance. However, this might be an early indicator that NTRI is done with their steep growth phase and enters into the maturity phase with rather flat performance when it comes to new customer acquisition. CAC and related ad spending have to be adjusted since it might have surpassed point of diminishing return. Conversely, revenue should still grow YOY since reactivations will drive over 20% of the business in 2008. 2008 will be a critical year for NTRI in terms of establishing an authentic weight loss brand. Q4 will not bring any relieve, since NTRI has to keep spending in December to generate leads in January. Thus, CAC will get worse Q4. Long term outlook is sill positive as long as NTRI can prove their reactivation model in 2008 (27% of REV).

Topline review of Alli

June 15, 2007

Analysis by:Dirk Aschmoneit, Director of Food & Retail Marketing,

Analysis of:Over-The-Counter Weight Loss Drug Approved | abclocal.go.com

Glaxo Smith Kline is trying to reposition Xenical Here is a quick review of the past.  It should be a solid indicator for the new initiative. Historical evolution of Alli: 1] GSK sales for Xenical $115.6 mil in 2004, down from $154.5 mil in 2002 2] Gastrointestinal side effects caused slow down in sales 3] For 2006 GSK plans to introduce OTC version of Xenical “Alli” 4] Q1 2007 GSK received approval for Alli 5] Expected launch in Q2/Q3 of 2007  Expectations by GSK: 6] Supported by $100 mil ad campaign 7] Expected $1 bil business within 10 years will reshuffle category What will truly happen: 8] High initial trial rate will impact big players in the category 9] However, impact will not be as big as 1994 DSHEA impact !

Reality Check for Nutrisystem

February 2, 2007

Analysis by:Dirk Aschmoneit, Director of Food & Retail Marketing,

Analysis of:Nutrisystem Shares Slide on Target Cut | biz.yahoo.com

 After 3 years of impressive growth it might be time for a reality check for Nutrisystem (NTRI). The stock got “pounded” this week after NTRI issued a lower than expected guidance for Q107 and a Citigroup analyst lowered his target price by $13 (from $105 to $92).  Is it time for bypass surgery or did this marketing machine just catch a cold. Let’s take a closer look at some of their metrics, projections and key initiatives to reach a better diagnosis.

Confused about Nutrisystems Stock Performance?

July 25, 2006

Analysis by:Dirk Aschmoneit, Director of Food & Retail Marketing,

Analysis of:NutriSystem plunges as COO to depart | www.marketwatch.com

Reactions on NTRI Q2 call send stock down 14%.  NTRI delivered on expectations but in this Fad driven industry investors didn't like the sudden departure of the president...

View All GLG News by members of this Study Group