Study Group: Distressed Real Estate Experts

GLG News^SM Analyses by this Study Group's Leading Experts(?)

Tax Lien Certificates Offer Stability During Unstable Times

October 1, 2009

Analysis by:Howard Liggett, President and CEO,

Analysis of:Tax Bills Put Pressure on Struggling Homeowners | www.nytimes.com

Present estimates of  unpaid property taxes in the United States place the figure as high as $15 billion annually.  The choices available to government officials for remedying this shortfall are limited.  Counties and cities could increase the tax rate,borrow (maybe) the necessary capital,reduce services (again) or sell the tax debt to investors willing to take the risk they will be repaid.  The first three options are distasteful to most property owners,particularly those who pay on time.

Foreclosures Set to Add More Years of Supply to Downtown Miami Condo Market

July 22, 2009

Analysis by:Gavin Campbell, Managing Principal,

Analysis of:Downtown Miami condos pass 60% occupancy | www.frej.net

The article describes a recent study that takes comfort in the fact that "62% of units in new downtown Miami condo buildings are occupied..., defying the perception that the majority of high rises built in recent years are empty." But this ignores the fact that there is still a 10 year supply of unsold inventory at today's absorption rates and pricing , and ignores the fact that foreclosures of previously sold units increased 500% last year in Miami Dade, which will only add to the glut.

Banks and Special Servicers Continue to Postpone the Inevitable

July 22, 2009

Analysis by:Gavin Campbell, Managing Principal,

Analysis of:Pru Sees Debt as Best Investment Bet | www.globest.com

The article notes that distressed debt provides the best near term opportunities for r investors. And, in a perfect world, it should be; banks and conduits learned in the last downturn that they were not good at owning foreclosed properties, so their instincts this time are to just sell the paper. But, to do this they must mark it to market, and that, ironically, prevents many of them from selling it. But, they will face reality sooner rather than later, and the market will be better for it.

Foreign & Domestic Investors Positioning For Florida Distressed Real Estate Deluge

June 8, 2009

Analysis by:Howard Liggett, President and CEO,

Analysis of:IS IT A GREAT TIME TO BUY PROPERTY IN FLORIDA NOW? | www.overseaspropertymall.com

South Florida's depressed real estate market is still about six months from rock bottom, but now bargain hunters are out in force. At a recent conference, real estate brokers and lawyers agreed the sharpest declines in value and the highest spikes in foreclosures will hit once most of Miami's new condo units are built in late 2008 and into 2009. Still, several brokers are noticing that distressed properties are starting to sell, and buyers - especially foreign buyers - are already eyeing the market to make sure they don't miss a feeding frenzy for cheap real estate. The trifecta of the housing glut, the subprime crisis and the weak dollar has made South Florida real estate attractive again - but for a very different reason than in 2005.

Value, Like Beauty, is in the Eye of the Lender

March 31, 2009

Analysis by:Gavin Campbell, Managing Principal,

Analysis of:Soros Says Commercial Property Values Will Fall 30% | www.bloomberg.com

Commercial real estate values have dropped to a point where owners generally aren't sellers, so realized transaction pricing has not followed the value drop. But lenders will force transactions on overleveraged or defaulting assets in due course.  But, depending on the product type and geography, the pricing and value implications of this will vary dramatically.

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