Study Group: DOJ Antitrust Experts: Lawyers

GLG News^SM Analyses by this Study Group's Leading Experts(?)

Russia's Financial Turmoil Forces New Oil Tax Changes

September 23, 2008

Analysis by:Leonard Coburn, President,

Analysis of:Additional Oil Tax Cuts by 2010 | themoscowtimes.com

Russia's primary revenue sources are taxes on oil and gas. Russia's oil taxes have been falling as oil prices fall and Russian oil production stagnates. Additional oil tax changes wil occur to spur new oil productiion and increase revenues.

Whole Food's Statements Create Difficulties for the Wild Oats Deal

June 20, 2007

Analysis by:Jeffrey Aaronson, Partner,

Analysis of:Whole Foods CEO Talked of "Eliminating" Rivalsl | seattletimes.nwsource.com

  The FTC's recently released unredacted version of the complaint against Whole Foods adds some spice to the case and helps explain the thinking behind bringing the case. In the unredacted material, Whole Foods' CEO John Mackey explained to the Whole Foods board that part of the rationale for acquiring Wild Oats was to "avoid nasty price wars" in a number of cities. In the newly unredacted material Whole Foods asserts that it "has created a brand that has real value;" and that it has created a "customer loyalty that will not be stolen away by conventional markets who sell the same products." Although the statements will likely make for hard going in court, they do not directly go to the key point in the case; the likely nature of future competition. To succeed in court, Whole Foods, will have to provide objective evidence showing that in the future, it will have compete against conventional supermarkets .

A Bosporus Bypass? Maybe.

March 21, 2007

Analysis by:Leonard Coburn, President,

Analysis of:New Pipeline Will Bypass the Bosporus but Involve Russia | www.nytimes.com

1. A Bosporus pipeline bypass would alleviate the congestion in the crowded straits, provide access to a deepwater port, and potentially allow more crude oil shipments from Russia and Central Asia.

2.  Similar proposals for a direct bypass have been discussed for more than a decade and none has come to fruition, with the exception of the BTC pipeline (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline) transporting crude oil from the Caspian Sea directly to the Mediterranean Turkish port of Ceyhan.

3.  The big question whether the economics and politics are sufficient for the latest proposal and whether the pipeline actually will built.

Gas OPEC Not Likely

February 16, 2007

Analysis by:Leonard Coburn, President,

Analysis of:Report: Russia, Iran in talks on gas cartel | money.cnn.com

- Gas is an increasingly important commodity in world energy markets and a price-fixing cartel would raise alarm bells around the globe

- Russia, Iran and Qatar are the three largest gas reserve owners.  President Putin recently visited Qatar to expand energy cooperation.  Russia is close to Iran since it is their supplier for commercial nuclear technology and weapons.  Energy cooperation is high on the Russia-Iran agenda. 

- Despite these contacts, it is unlikely that a gas cartel will emerge due to the significant differences between oil and gas trade.

The Russian Energy Conversation: Implications at the G-8

July 13, 2006

Analysis by:Leonard Coburn, President,

Analysis of:Russian Energy Policy Doesn't Match Its G-8 Talk | online.wsj.com

The article reviews:

-- G-8 Summit
-- Russia Energy Policy
--- European and U.S. Reactions and Policy Implications

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