Study Group: Capital Structure Specialists

GLG News^SM Analyses by this Study Group's Leading Experts(?)

A turnaround for Aries?

November 20, 2009

Analysis by:Diran Majarian, Managing Director,

Analysis of:Aries rebuilding | www.tradewinds.no

New CEO Michael Zolotas and CFO Allan Shaw recently gave a presentation of their plans to turn around Aries Maritime (RAMS) and use it as a platform for growth. They talked about recapitalization, fleet mix, in-house technical management, chartering strategy, steamlined GA costs and the new management team. Their new focus is on dry cargo and product trades. They have dropped in six additional units from GrandUnion and recapitalized with US$ 36 equity and US$ 182 mio new debt. Let's evaluate.

Is Chinese demand for dry cargo as sustainable as industry analysts claim?

November 7, 2009

Analysis by:Diran Majarian, Managing Director,

Analysis of:Fear the Dark Side of China's Lending Surge | english.caijing.com.cn

Despite the global financial crisis, this year has seen some revival in dry cargo rates, especially for Panamax and Capesize vessels. This has led to some renewed investor interest in the sector, notably by Peter Georgiopoulos. The investment thesis rests on Chinese growth potential. Chinese analysts tend to be more reserved. They see significant barriers to expansion in the hinterland and have mounting concerns over misinvestment and asset bubbles, jeopardizing future financial stability.

Rising risks of an asset bubble in China threatened by US stagflation

November 7, 2009

Analysis by:Diran Majarian, Managing Director,

Analysis of:RGE - What Rebalancing of Chinese and American Consumption? | www.rgemonitor.com

China and the US are dealing with their imbalances either by exacerbating the very things that caused them in the first place. China entered the crisis with oneof the highest rates of misallocation of investment in recent times. With its enormous liquidity released for stimulus, China with waning export markets has become a giant Ponzi scheme, with money pouring into asset speculation. US expansionary monetary policies are leading to a stagflationary environment that will pop this bubble.

Berlian Laju taking its distance from Eitzen Chemical in the CECO Merger

October 25, 2009

Analysis by:Diran Majarian, Managing Director,

Analysis of:Eitzen takeover a milestone for Asia | www.tradewinds.no

BLT plans to leave Eitzen Chemical as a separate entity and retain the previous management to run it. They will transfer Eitzen Chemical debt from the CECO holding company back to the subsidiary. As a deal prerequisite, CECO lenders must agree to waive all principal payments and loan covenants for a three-year period. Of the US$ 200 mio cash that BLT is required to inject in CECO, only US$ 50 mio will go to Eitzen Chemical. BLT will invest US$ 130 mio of these funds in Indonesian projects.

Georgiopoulos gives thumbs up to dry bulk in an opportunistic play

October 23, 2009

Analysis by:Diran Majarian, Managing Director,

Analysis of:Wall Street darling Georgiopoulos nears first shipping IPO since June 2008 | www.tradewinds.no

Peter Georgiopoulos is aiming for an opportunistic asset acquisition play thorough Genco's (GNK) new Baltic Trading, which could seek US$ 230 mio in its initial public offering (IPO) with a plan to purchase five to seven vessels by the end of 2010. He is betting on recovery in this sector, carefully sheltering his existing dry cargo company Genco and he is demanding top dollar for his participation and management in the new venture.

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