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May 28, 2008
UBS Pain far from Over
Analysis of: UBS Falls After Saying More Mortgage Losses Possible | www.bloomberg.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
UBS Pain far from Over
Analysis of: UBS Falls After Saying More Mortgage Losses Possible | www.bloomberg.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
The news is not good for UBS. The amount of mortgage holdings in US and Non-US declining markets will lead to further losses. 1. $45 B of additional US Mortgage Holdings. 2. An undisclosed amount of non-US mortgage holdings. 3. A UK and Eurpoean mortgage market that is going down as well. 4. The slump...
May 27, 2008
The Real Write Downs - Whats in a number
Analysis of: Banks Keep $35 Billion Markdown Off Income Statements | www.bloomberg.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
The Real Write Downs - Whats in a number
Analysis of: Banks Keep $35 Billion Markdown Off Income Statements | www.bloomberg.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
The article is right on target in pointing out the various issues around bank reporting their losses todate. 1. Allowable accounting standards. 2. Permanent versus Temporary Losses 3. Capital Requirments The article goes on to highlight the various issues around soveriegn wealth funds, capital levels...
May 12, 2008
Whose loss is it, Banks or Investors?
Analysis of: The Biggest Housing Losers | online.wsj.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
Whose loss is it, Banks or Investors?
Analysis of: The Biggest Housing Losers | online.wsj.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
1. While the article does a good job of pointing out that the losses will be greater under the House FHA Plan than expected and that the tax payers will carry the cost, it along with the plan by the House misses the mark by thinking banks will take advantage of the plan. 2. The real owners of...
April 10, 2008
Fannie, Freddie and FHLB's are providing funding for now.
Analysis of: Fannie and Freddie drive home loans | www.ft.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
Fannie, Freddie and FHLB's are providing funding for now.
Analysis of: Fannie and Freddie drive home loans | www.ft.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
Through mid 2008 these will continue to be the drivers of home loan financing. Coming up quickly will be HUD/FHA. The unkown related player will be community banks, credit unions and small regionals. There is a problem that is already surfacing, add on fees by the banks using these groups for fundi...
April 4, 2008
Be Careful What you ask for you might get it.
Analysis of: Overdue Consumer Debts Highest Since 1992, ABA Says | www.bloomberg.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
Be Careful What you ask for you might get it.
Analysis of: Overdue Consumer Debts Highest Since 1992, ABA Says | www.bloomberg.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
It looks like the legislative solution is not getting off the ground again as far as working out loans. The proposals that have come out are mainly directed at going forward purchasers, builders and cities. So much for the defualted borrower. The ideas that were being floated carried their own risk
March 24, 2008
Expect to see more suits and bigger failures
Analysis of: Merrill Sues XL Capital to Maintain CDO Insurance | www.bloomberg.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
Expect to see more suits and bigger failures
Analysis of: Merrill Sues XL Capital to Maintain CDO Insurance | www.bloomberg.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
The article raises valid concerns on security of these insured transactions. Expect: 1. More suits as the insurers try legal tactics to invalidate coverage. 2. That the contracts and premiums have been paid and the courts will likely take a dim view of legal ploys to invalidate coverage based on semantics....
March 18, 2008
What will the FED do next, what is left for them?
Analysis of: Fed Aggressive on Financial Front | money.aol.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
What will the FED do next, what is left for them?
Analysis of: Fed Aggressive on Financial Front | money.aol.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
The Fed does not know what to do after they reduce interest tomorrow. This follows on the tail of the bailout of Bear Sterns in a sweet heart deal with JP Morgan/ Chase, and the opening of the FED window to non-depositories. The next issue and crisis is going to be the dollar value and its impact on...
March 14, 2008
That did not take long - Bear Sterns use of FED bailout
Analysis of: Bear Credit Woes Send Stocks Lower | money.aol.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
That did not take long - Bear Sterns use of FED bailout
Analysis of: Bear Credit Woes Send Stocks Lower | money.aol.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
1. Market reacts to Bear liquidity and FED temporary bailout plan by dropping over 200 points. 2. Will market continue to yo-yo as these events happen. 3. Will FED change plan if Bear fails?
March 12, 2008
When will they learn?
Analysis of: Stock Futures Pare Early Gains | money.aol.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
When will they learn?
Analysis of: Stock Futures Pare Early Gains | money.aol.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
How afraid is the FED of where the economy is going that has caused them to promote such a drastic step as opening up funds to non depository banks? 1. The Fed lending at Par for devalued assets to Non Banks. 2. Will more money be made available when the markets continues down? 3. How will write...
February 7, 2008One more consideration - RFC's market niche may be eroding
Analysis of: GMAC considers sale of troubled ResCap | www.ft.com
Author: Brian Hershkowitz, Chief Executive Officer, Maximum Value Group
This is an important article because it is detailing the possible exit from the mortgage business of another player that only dealt minorly in the subprime world, if at all. One of the considerations not discussed in the article is the effect of the potential Economic Stimulus Plan specifically...
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Bank Debt Risk Rises as Writedowns, Losses Exceed $500 Billion
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Spinning Disk is history
September 1, 2008
Long term implications of the credit crisis
August 26, 2008
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August 25, 2008
Credit, Credit...Who Has Credit?
August 25, 2008
As long term investors, Sovereign Wealth Funds may have the last laugh
August 25, 2008

