Will only owrk if they do something with the mortgages!
December 12, 2008
RBS Promises Borrowers Six-Month Respite Before Foreclosing on Mortgages | www.bloomberg.com
1. Only works if the loans are re-performed. 2. Can be a rat in the snake waiting to pass. 3. Can make the situation worse with failure to reperform 4. There are good and bad modifications
Blame the models and Risk Based Pricing
September 30, 2008
Why Risk Models Failed to Spot the Credit Crisis by Adam Davidson | www.npr.org
Models only cover certain variables and the crisis involved much more than mortgage pricing and a few macroeconomic issues. Risked based pricing as used in the mortgage industry had an underlying flaw that caused the models to fail. Greed played the other part.
What to expect from the bailout.
September 12, 2008
U.S. bails out Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, ousts CEOs | www.bizjournals.com
1. Shows how truly bad the mortgage industry has gotten and how scared the feds are of where we are going. 2. If the major source of liquidity can not survive, who will? 3. What should be the outcome.
May 28, 2008
UBS Falls After Saying More Mortgage Losses Possible | www.bloomberg.com
The news is not good for UBS. The amount of mortgage holdings in US and Non-US declining markets will lead to further losses. 1. $45 B of additional US Mortgage Holdings. 2. An undisclosed amount of non-US mortgage holdings. 3. A UK and Eurpoean mortgage market that is going down as well. 4. The slump in home prices is not over and is impacting performing mortgages.
The Real Write Downs - Whats in a number
May 27, 2008
Banks Keep $35 Billion Markdown Off Income Statements | www.bloomberg.com
The article is right on target in pointing out the various issues around bank reporting their losses todate. 1. Allowable accounting standards. 2. Permanent versus Temporary Losses 3. Capital Requirments The article goes on to highlight the various issues around soveriegn wealth funds, capital levels and loan leverage. The article ends with a list of "hidden losses" by various financial institutions. The interesting part of the article is the acknowledgement of an additional $35 B to be taken by the banks. The bigger issue is the losses to be taken by the investors.
Whose loss is it, Banks or Investors?
May 12, 2008
The Biggest Housing Losers | online.wsj.com
1. While the article does a good job of pointing out that the losses will be greater under the House FHA Plan than expected and that the tax payers will carry the cost, it along with the plan by the House misses the mark by thinking banks will take advantage of the plan. 2. The real owners of these loans are the investors, not the banks. 3. The investors are already not doing short sales, why would they take 40 and 50% losses under this plan.
Fannie, Freddie and FHLB's are providing funding for now.
April 10, 2008
Fannie and Freddie drive home loans | www.ft.com
Through mid 2008 these will continue to be the drivers of home loan financing. Coming up quickly will be HUD/FHA. The unkown related player will be community banks, credit unions and small regionals. There is a problem that is already surfacing, add on fees by the banks using these groups for funding.
Be Careful What you ask for you might get it.
April 4, 2008
Overdue Consumer Debts Highest Since 1992, ABA Says | www.bloomberg.com
It looks like the legislative solution is not getting off the ground again as far as working out loans. The proposals that have come out are mainly directed at going forward purchasers, builders and cities. So much for the defualted borrower. The ideas that were being floated carried their own risk.
Expect to see more suits and bigger failures
March 24, 2008
Merrill Sues XL Capital to Maintain CDO Insurance | www.bloomberg.com
The article raises valid concerns on security of these insured transactions. Expect: 1. More suits as the insurers try legal tactics to invalidate coverage. 2. That the contracts and premiums have been paid and the courts will likely take a dim view of legal ploys to invalidate coverage based on semantics. 3. That the additional capital that has been raised by the monolines is still not sufficient to cover all of their risk.
What will the FED do next, what is left for them?
March 18, 2008
Fed Aggressive on Financial Front | money.aol.com
The Fed does not know what to do after they reduce interest tomorrow. This follows on the tail of the bailout of Bear Sterns in a sweet heart deal with JP Morgan/ Chase, and the opening of the FED window to non-depositories. The next issue and crisis is going to be the dollar value and its impact on the economy. Gas is going to continue up as will most other costs that are fuel dependent. What will be the impact as a G-7 goes off the dollar and say to the EURO?
New FINRA Rule 2210-Simplification Whose Time Has Come
November 4, 2009
ADP Must Grow Three Major Markets for Continued Success
October 22, 2009
Battle for Dominance in Mortgage Fraud Analytics Space
October 17, 2009
All hands on deck, full steam ahead
September 7, 2009
Dollar destined to be second class currency in world's largest banana republic
September 1, 2009