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GLG News by Timber Experts

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Dave HillmanJuly 3, 2008
AbitibiBowaters: where is the bottom of this slippery slope?
Analysis of: Papers Facing Worst Year For Ad Revenue | www.nytimes.com
Author: Dave Hillman, Independent Consultant, Dave Hillman
There are 530 major newspapers in the US which are struggling with the highest newsprint prices since 1995.  They have already reduced the weight of the paper to 45 gsm and reduced the width of the paper. The NY Times instituted a waste reduction campaign that produced a 10% reduction in paper...
Dave HillmanJune 18, 2008
Oh My! Ableco is rejected, Wayzata now owns P&T's Halsey Mill
Analysis of: Willl There Be Layoffs at Harmac? | www.topix.com
Author: Dave Hillman, Independent Consultant, Dave Hillman
The Halsey mill was sold twice in one week.  First to Ableco for $24 million (but only $10 million in cash, the remainder was debt assumption).  Wayzata stepped up and bid $31 million cash but immediately refused to recognize the local Union.  Will this allow them to reduce the 180 man...
Robert WeinbergerJune 16, 2008
When will the sawmills come back?
Analysis of: Sawmills Falling Silent | www.nationalpost.com
Author: Robert Weinberger, Sole Proprietor, Bob Weinberger Forest Management Consulting
The article very dramatically portrays the plight of the wood products industry and its workers in British Columbia and raises the question: " When will homebuilding pick up to the point where all the shut sawmills will be able to restart? But, more importantly, will all these shut mills still be able...
Dave HillmanJune 16, 2008
Pulp mills formerly depended on sawmills for chips - what do they do now?
Analysis of: Sawmills Falling Silent | www.nationalpost.com
Author: Dave Hillman, Independent Consultant, Dave Hillman
It has been reported that fully half the sawmills in British Columbia are now down for lack of orders.  This means that all those pulp mills who formerly purchased great quantities of chips (in some cases, 55% of their total fiber supply) have had to resort to other means.....(1) additional...
Dave HillmanJune 16, 2008
Will Halsey be a goldmine for Ableco Finance or a money pit?
Analysis of: Company Purchases Pulp Mill in Halsey | www.registerguard.com
Author: Dave Hillman, Independent Consultant, Dave Hillman
The Halsey mill has a number of valuable assets - the ability to produce Unbleached Softwood (most mills have gone out of this grade), two tissue/towelling machines, a deinking pulping operation, a pulp grade (NBSK) that is in demand all over the Pacific Rim and SE Asia and a location right on...
Dave HillmanJune 13, 2008
An Invitation Pulp Producers Couldn't Refuse
Analysis of: Stora Enso to start detailed study into Russian paper, pulp mill | www.forbes.com
Author: Dave Hillman, Independent Consultant, Dave Hillman
Raising the duy of all logs to 80 euros/cubic meter will put half the mills in Sweden and Finland out of business it's been reported. Already these mills are operating with the world's highest wood costs - some say as high as US$256/mt or almost six times as high as Ara Cruz's world costs for plantation...
Dave HillmanJune 6, 2008
Weyerhaeuser: dancing as fast as they can!
Analysis of: Weyerhaeuser delays REIT, disappointing investors | www.risiinfo.com
Author: Dave Hillman, Independent Consultant, Dave Hillman
The US Government has fashioned the Tax Laws to make it advantageous for large land owners like Weyerhaeuser to convert to a REIT.  This would be similar to what several Canadians (i.e. Canfor and SFK) have already done. Weyerhaeuser is one (if not the) largest landowner in the Pacific Northwest.  ...
June 6, 2008
WY continues to resist change - and gets tax relief in the short run
Analysis of: Weyerhaeuser delays REIT, disappointing investors | www.risiinfo.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
As the author pointed out - WY has resisted some might say "dodged" the REIT bullet again, finally getting the so called tree act through, after several attempts to get relief legislation in previous years.  One might ask why there is resistance in the first place?  A operational benefits...
Robert WeinbergerJune 4, 2008
How long can Weyerhaeuser resist the pressures to restructure.
Analysis of: Weyerhaeuser delays REIT, disappointing investors | www.risiinfo.com
Author: Robert Weinberger, Sole Proprietor, Bob Weinberger Forest Management Consulting
The article states that Weyerhauser has put off conversion to a REIT this year, largely in response to passage of the TREE act (Timber Revitalization and Economic Enhancement Act ) by Congress. This closely fits the prediction I made in my analysis in early January this year (see:" Further Evidence...
Robert WeinbergerMay 30, 2008
Why pure timber plays look much better than lumber or paper.
Analysis of: Cashing in on Commodities: Lumber & Paper Mills Struggle as Timber Stands Tall | www.moneymorning.com
Author: Robert Weinberger, Sole Proprietor, Bob Weinberger Forest Management Consulting
The article does an excellent job of explaining why North American pure timber companies ( e.g. Rayonier, Plum Creek, and Potlatch) are  doing so well, while their customers (wood products and paper companies) are doing so poorly. More importantly it spells out why, when paper and woods products...

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