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Raj Mehra, President & Founder

Raj MehraPresident & FounderChelsea Advisory Services What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Low Loan Loss Reserves at Banks Could Cause Problems Ahead

September 20, 2007

E*Trade Hit By Mortgage Turmoil | online.wsj.com

Loan loss reserves at banks are at historic lows. At the same time, the credit cycle has turned viciously negative, particularly for mortgages. Banking regulators are likely to ratchet the pressure up on banks to raise their loss reserves. The most vulnerable are banks with outsized exposure to the mortgage lending business

Raj Mehra, President & Founder

Raj MehraPresident & FounderChelsea Advisory Services What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Countrywide Spells Out Its Strategy to Manage Credit Market Crisis

September 10, 2007

Countrywide Communicates Staff Reductions to Employees | online.wsj.com

Countywide's announcement late last Friday and Angelo Mozilo's letter to employees provide a unique window into CFC's strategy for addressing the impact of the credit crisis on its business. The letter provides details on the steps that CFC is taking to shelter itself from the fallout. Unfortunately, the strategy, while undoubtedly aggressive, may not be enough.

Raj Mehra, President & Founder

Raj MehraPresident & FounderChelsea Advisory Services What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Writedowns of Retained Interests Could be Next Shoe to Drop for Subprime Lenders

September 5, 2007

NovaStar to Slash Lending and Cut Jobs | www.nytimes.com

Retained interests from securitizations made up more than 75% of the shareholder's equity at NFI. Also, the company has elected to finance these securities. Demand, never very strong to begin with, has deteriorated severely in the last month. The company could be forced to recognize a sizeable writedown in its retained interests, which will reduce book value. Other lenders that have sizeable retained interest holdings include Countrywide Financial ('CFC') and Rescap Holdings (a subsidiary of GMAC).  

Raj Mehra, President & Founder

Raj MehraPresident & FounderChelsea Advisory Services What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Thoughts on the impact on third quarter earnings from the crisis in subprime mortgages

August 27, 2007

Bank Profits May Well Suffer, but Credit Crisis Hardly Leaves Them Defenseless | www.nytimes.com

Several banks will be closing their third quarter soon. The credit crisis intensified in the third quarter - what impact should we expect to see from the bankruptcies, plummeting market values, the virtual demise of the collateralized debt obligations market etc. - Some banks will write down goodwill related to acquisitions of mortgage companies, and book charges to earnings.  Market capitalization of typical subprime mortgage company is about a third of the book equity, so the impairment could be sizeable - The rating agency downgrades of residential and asset backed securities will cause some banks to write down the book value of their investment securities. For the banks that were also warehouse lenders for failed CDO deals, this charge could be significant

Raj Mehra, President & Founder

Raj MehraPresident & FounderChelsea Advisory Services What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Some of the Red Flags to look out for

August 20, 2007

How Missed Signs Contributed to a Mortgage Meltdown | www.nytimes.com

       The debacle in subprime bonds was side stepped by some investors. They were able to spot warning signs while others ignored or missed them. A lot of this information was in plain sight. Others could have found the same red flags, if only they knew what to look for

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