GLG News by Soybean Farmers

The effects of late planting, cool-wet soils in May, and flooding in June can't be overcome by favorable weather in July and August.  USDA's yield and production estimates may well turn out to be on the optimistic side when we finally get the crop in the bin.

The request for a partial waiver in the RFS by Texas Gov. Perry is likely to be denied, largely due to a 25% reduction in corn prices caused by favorable weather in the Midwest.  This corn crop, however, will be extremely difficult to get an accurate estimate on prior to getting it out of the field,...

Changes in the ethanol production subsidy and import tariff would be an excellent way to moderate the increases in the short-term price of corn, easing the pain for the US livestock industry.  But any change in these policies will have long term impacts on the biofuels sector.   These changes...

An over-emphasis on ethanol has combined with a poor production year and a major speculative push on commodity prices to push livestock net returns into the red.  Animal feed has long been US corn and soybeans primary source of demand, but high feed costs, with no way to push up the selling price...

Just like this time last year, traders in Chicago may believe that Brazilian farmers are poised to significantly expand soybean acreage, as they have moved prices above $15 per bushel.  However, just as they misjudged them last year, they may be doing it again, as fertilizer prices have doubled,...

Expiring contracts may add two million acres a year to planted area in the US, but don't look for many contracts to be "broken" unless they were recently signed, as the penalty's are too severe, even with high commodity prices. It seems likely that given the current situation with a poor crop in the...

The USDA's most recent projections on planted area for corn, soy and wheat in the US for 2008 appear to be optimistic at best.

The ag commodity markets are trading on emotion, and to some extent, fear, without and regard for supply and demand, and the continued economic viability of that demand.  The old market saying is that high prices are the best cure for high prices, but the "cure" may be a bitter pill to swallow

DuPont's new "in-the-bag" refuge system will probably steal some market share from Monsanto trait seed, until Monsanto introduces the same, but likely gains will be small due to the ability of producers to satisfy the refuge requirements with simple in-the-row methods.

The US ag sector is showing strong signs of being overheated, and is likely to see a correction soon.  The question is, how far and fast will it fall.