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October 10, 2008Just Like 2001 But Very Different
Analysis of: Analysts cautious commercial real estate outlook | www.forbes.com
Author: Kenneth Leonard, Principal, Leonard Associates
The recent Goldman Sachs analysis of the prolonged downturn in commercial real estate is based upon a strict comparison with the 2001 downturn during that recession. Their numbers reveal that the 38 REITs they follow will suffer a total return of NEGATIVE 4.5% Are they for real? What do these young...
October 2, 2008THIS IS NOT YOUR FATHER'S EQUITY REIT MARKET
Analysis of: REIT history bodes well for outlook in current volitile market | www.investmentnews.com
Author: Kenneth Leonard, Principal, Leonard Associates
If this writer is correct there is very little to worry about for holders of stock in mall and strip shopping center REITs. While I am not an expert in other types of equity REITs, my experience tells me that they generally move in tandem to the shopping center REITs. It is my firm belief that...
September 29, 2008Why Is This Bailout Different From All Other Bailouts?
Analysis of: This Is Not Your Father's Bailout | thegroundfloor.typepad.com
Author: Kenneth Leonard, Principal, Leonard Associates
I am sure that I am not the only one who thought that the lessons learned from the RTC experience could provide a suitable short cut and timesaving prototype for the requisite documentation to set the stage for this bailout. After reading this article I now realize why I was wrong and I wanted to share...
September 24, 2008Unraveling Accelerates Due To Financial Storm
Analysis of: Financial crisis kicks Sears while it's down | www.chicagobusiness.com
Author: Kenneth Leonard, Principal, Leonard Associates
SHLD reported a 98% drop in net income for the first half of its fiscal year while comp sales drops 7.4%. B of A reduced SHLD's line of credit to $5 million from $1 billion. On Friday Fitch Ratings downgraded their debt rating. Last week the rate Sears pays on its 30-day commercial...
September 19, 2008THE DOMINOS HAVE STARTED TO FALL
Analysis of: Steve & Barry's begins closing 103 stores | cbs4denver.com:80
Author: Kenneth Leonard, Principal, Leonard Associates
Bay Harbour Management and York Capital Management, who acquired the 276 store Steve & Barry's operation presumably to take advantage of their "below market leases" and to show both Steve and Barry, the two young former owners, that they knew more about how to turn their company around than they...
September 18, 2008An Indicator Of Things To Come
Analysis of: Discount retailer Steve & Barry's closing 5 Chicago-area stores | www.chicagotribune.com
Author: Kenneth Leonard, Principal, Leonard Associates
Whenever a troubled shopping center loses an anchor store there are far more repercussions than most hedgefund analysts realize. Steve & Barry's which until recently has been the replacement anchor of choice for troubled malls, is now being seen as the first major anchor failure that could...
September 15, 2008Fannie & Freddie & Common Sense
Analysis of: ULI Looks At Fannie-Freddie Implications | blog.retailtrafficmag.com:80
Author: Kenneth Leonard, Principal, Leonard Associates
While this topic has been written about from almost every possible angle, I have not seen anything as appropriate as the following summary from this nations leading real estate trade group.
September 12, 2008WAKE UP AND SMELL THE OVERSATURATION
Analysis of: MALL GLUT TO CLOG MARKET FOR YEARS | online.wsj.com
Author: Kenneth Leonard, Principal, Leonard Associates
In 1983 there was 29 square feet of retail space for every single person in the 54 largest U S markets. Today there is 38 square feet for every person in those same markets. One billion square feet have been added since 2000 driven in large measure by artificially cheap money and too much...
September 8, 2008The Myth Of "Hidden" Real Estate Values
Analysis of: Mervyn's Sues Ex-Owners, Charges They "Stripped" It | online.wsj.com
Author: Kenneth Leonard, Principal, Leonard Associates
As more private-equity-backed companies file for bankruptcy protection, creditors and the companies themselves are expected to increase attacks on the financial structures used in the buyout deals.
September 8, 2008THEY ARE BOTH RIGHT FOR THE WRONG REASONS
Analysis of: Longs Property Is A Wild Card | online.wsj.com
Author: Kenneth Leonard, Principal, Leonard Associates
Might the $2.61 billion CVS purchase of LDG come undone due to a dispute over real estate values? How does one gauge the value of LDG's real estate? GLG readers want to know.
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