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March 5, 2007What A Week! Mostly down, but one up market!
Analysis of: Freddie Mac to toughen mortgage Standards | ww.usatoday.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
The evidence piled up last week to support:
1. The premise that housing prices will plummet as foreclosures rise, loans to facilitate housing purchases will become more dear as to terms if not cost and affordability is stretched further by energy, food and healthcare costs;
2. ...
March 1, 2007Houses Can Be Made Smaller, but Can You Sell Them?
Analysis of: Single Women Head For Homes | www.sacbee.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
The contention of interest proposed here is that single women are generally interested in purchasing a home and that the home of choice is most often a smaller and more affordable unit. OK, so I added the more affordable part, but I think you’ll grant me the inclusion. A lot of attention...
March 1, 2007The Mortgage Bankers Association Gives Us A Warning
Analysis of: Lenders told foreclosure picture grim | www.signonsandiego.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
The results of all this will be an implosion of prices in most markets. I can make a case for New York City and Washington D.C., but the affordability there is so low that I think I’d be wrong to make the point. Last year I was momentarily high on Las Vegas and I was wrong, so I’m reluctant...
February 28, 2007Looks Like Blackstone Has a Plan
Analysis of: Blackstone Gets $3 billion for L.A. - Area Buildings, Person says | www.bloomberg.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
This deal and its successors are the beginnings of the next trend in the office building market. The underlying thought here for all the investors is that there will be quantum rent increases in the near term. Never mind that these buildings are the repository of all the business risks of...
February 20, 2007The Plain Truth About Housing
Analysis of: Prices, not the press, help move sales | www.signonsandiego.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
I continue to think that we are a minimum 18 months away from a resolution or recovery in our housing market. And I don’t think we have reached a bottom. We haven’t seen a glimmer of stabilization in our major home builders. I think this will be confirmed when these companies show...
February 15, 2007The Mills Saga Continues – Is This The Perfect Solution?
Analysis of: Mills To Pursue Simon and Farallon Bid | www.globest.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
The combination of an institutional investor already at major risk in a transaction plus a professional developer/manager with a great industry record has the best opportunity for success in this turnaround. I remember also that Simon in the past had a major investment in Mills which it withdrew. ...
February 15, 2007Here’s an affordable housing battle that might be typical of any major city.
Analysis of: A lot riding on Anaheim housing vote | www.latimes.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
When you have a median housing value of say $ 650,000 and a location where the existing housing stock approximates the median, you have an opportunity to sell attached housing at $ 350,000 to $ 400,000 per copy when the supply is otherwise constrained.
February 12, 2007Here's Your Answer!
Analysis of: Homebuilders Hammered. Time for M&A? | www.businessweek.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
I believe there is more pain to go in the housing market including serious defaults where home and land prices will implode. I believe you won’t see the turn until 2008 and even then not until the latter half. And I think the turn will stabilize at a lower overall construction number since...
February 5, 2007Is this the end of this commercial property cycle?
Analysis of: There’s still room for real estate funds to roam | www.usatoday.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
As the article points out, REIT stocks have doubled on average in the last three years. No doubt that in the mid 1990’s, commercial real estate was out-of-favor – for a song prices. But dividend yields are now at 3.78 % - negative leverage to the private exit buyers. So REIT investors...
February 2, 2007Mills agrees to acquisition deal
Analysis of: Brookfield Deal for Mills May Not End Drama | www.wsj.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
Brookfield has offered $ 156.25 per sq. ft. for the 48 million sq. feet in the remaining 38 shopping centers in the Mills portfolio. Eighteen percent of the cost in cash will be paid at closing. I believe that the deal will not return historical costs to the shareholders and reproduction...
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