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GLG News by Residential Operative Builders and Developers (Arizona)

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Paul BurnsFebruary 1, 2007
The Mortgage Business is in Trouble!
Analysis of: Double Trouble for Mortgage Shares | www.wsj.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
I believe we will see a further significant downturn in housing prices which will follow an abundant oversupply of homes on the market produced by defaults over the next year.- Real estate broker volume may increase but home building and land development will be off.- The purchase side of mortgage banking...
Paul BurnsFebruary 1, 2007
Is Bob Toll Right?
Analysis of: Mr. Toll Turns To Towers | www.wsj.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
I believe we will now have a business downturn as result of reduced demand in the housing and auto industries and the debt service requirement on the federal budget.  I think China and other offshore sources have been funding our consumer spending with low interest rates when they advance funds...
Paul BurnsJanuary 31, 2007
This is the Ultimate Game of Real Estate Chicken
Analysis of: Blackstone Raises Stakes in EOP Battle | online.wsj.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
No matter who the buyer is, I believe this is the last tough deal in an out of control market.  Mr. Roth at Vornado says that every deal he didn’t buy in the last decade was a mistake and he is right.  Nevertheless, he’s probably going to regret this one of he keeps overbidding to win. ...
Paul BurnsJanuary 25, 2007
Affordability is The Housing Issue – Another Example or Two
Analysis of: Inland Empire’s affordability takes a steep drop | www.latimes.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
Here’s more evidence that we’re not at any bottom in the residential market and that more hard times are ahead.
Paul BurnsJanuary 24, 2007
It’s Clear Now!
Analysis of: Mall REIT Warns That It Might Be Forced Into Bankruptcy | www.nytimes.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
Mills Says Accounting Errors Caused by Misconduct www.bloomberg.com MILLS CORP. CEO SAYS NO HIDDEN PROBLEMS (article) www.tribune.com | Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT)" href="http://news.glgroup.com/cm/Analysis/Browse.aspx?a=aj&rxid=11127">...>Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) Transparency...
Paul BurnsJanuary 22, 2007
You Can Count On Change.
Analysis of: Toyota eyes U.S. buildup | www.latimes.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
This is just the beginning of a trend as we move our economy ahead in capital goods and other manufacturing areas.  About 40% of our industrial property inventory is devoted to manufacturing as opposed to warehousing or speculative flex space.  This manufacturing percentage has been decreasing...
Paul BurnsJanuary 17, 2007
More About Mills – The Operations Based Solution
Analysis of: Great Mall paving a path to shoppers’ changing needs | www.mercurynews.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
The key to the future success of the Mills’ properties lies with the releasing and renovation programs which will increase sales volumes and the profitability of tenants. The rents will then accelerate and the return on the investment will provide a greater residual to the land/equity. This is the story...
Paul BurnsJanuary 17, 2007
Commercial Not Holding Up Better – Just Following Residential
Analysis of: Survey: Commercial real estate market holding up better than residential | sanantonio.bizjournals.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
Residential development in the far past over a quarter century ago followed jobs.  Aerospace in Southern California, electronics in Phoenix, aircraft and software in Seattle, Disney in Anaheim and Orlando and gaming in Las Vegas were the stimulus for job growth and resulting homebuilding. ...
Paul BurnsJanuary 12, 2007
You Never Know Who’s Going To Be Your Boss.
Analysis of: HOME DEPOT DRAWS PROXY THREAT FROM INVESTORS | www.wsj.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
Old adages just keep turning up.  This company is being done in by the autocratic attitude of its now ex-CEO and the continuing concentration of power in the hands of Private Equity Capital.  Mr. Nardelli just wasn’t nice and when they could, the investors whined him out.  His results...
Paul BurnsJanuary 12, 2007
Some Good Thoughts About Future Housing Markets Here!
Analysis of: The changing housing market: A bang or a whimper? | www.bos.frb.org
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
I like three of the points made here best.  Housing prices have been increasing faster than incomes, the sub-prime market has never been tested in a down housing market and if the market becomes an auction market, prices can fall sharply.  I think these are the keys to further price and...

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