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David KoegelNovember 10, 2008
Probability Through Rose-Colored Glasses
Analysis of: Why Risk Models Failed to Spot the Credit Crisis by Adam Davidson | www.npr.org
Author: David Koegel, Vice President, Imagine Advisors, Inc.
This article should bring to light a common misconception in attempting to evaluate risk of financial loss which is that probability estimation techniques are often falsely relied upon as precise measures. One must remind oneself that in most cases probability of future financial loss cannot be...
July 3, 2008
Missing Earnings in Turbulent Times Hospital and Medical Insurers
Analysis of: AMA meeting: Delegates decry CMS no-pay list as unrealistic and call for revision | www.ama-assn.org
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
CMS (and several large insurers) refusing to pay for "Never Events" will further challenge cash strapped hospitals, and poses increased pressure to increase prices as hospitals attempt to cost-shift to the commercial carriers.  Not paying for alleged hospital mistakes will garner stronger administrative...
May 8, 2008
Ranking Doctors and Hospitals
Analysis of: Physician report card validity | physiciansnews.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Ranking doctors and hospitals will certainly move the most profitable patients able to afford commercial health insurance AND travel.  Medical Providers who help set their (local) standards to affect real outcomes reporting regular consumers can understand will increase their market share. ...
April 11, 2008
Private Sector Solutions To Florida's Property Insurance Problems.
Analysis of: Florida Property Insurance Poll: No More Quick Fixes | www.insurancenewsnet.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
The article on Florida Property Insurance is somewhat on target. Where it goes aray is injecting government assistance. Politicians never solve anything. The property indemnity marketplace will find viable solutions. The MASH unit approach to property insurance is at best myopic. Insurance companies...
April 9, 2008
Losses Loom in Pensulvania if Poltics Guides Health Insurance Absent
Analysis of: House OKs Limits on Health Insurance | www.post-gazette.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Pennsylvania is a bell weather for hospital reporting in the US.  The "hospital costing containment council" (I forget the name) is famous for highlighting percentage of patients acquiring hospital infections after arrival.  Accountability for these very high costs lay with people managing...
April 1, 2008
Organized Hopitals and Physicians Win More Medicare & Medicaid Contracts
Analysis of: Health insurers take a dive on WellPoint's warning | www.marketwatch.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Regrettably, many physicians feel that dealing with dollars is less then fulfilling, especially in light of off-loading potential costs of defensive medicine.  The very turbulent times ahead will give employed groups of physicians a strategic advantage over individually fragmented doctors...
March 25, 2008
Major Insurers Cant Keep Raising Prices with Employers Baulking
Analysis of: Health insurers take a dive on WellPoint's warning | www.marketwatch.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
    Ongoing healthcare inflation at 200-400%/yr of  CPI has surpassed the point where employers can easily compete with international products and services.  We are already seeing growth in Scheduled Medical Benefits, which are a poor substitute - but do substitute for...
March 7, 2008
Marsh, Aon, Willis, Gallagher, Acordia, Zurich, Ace and all big brokerage houses hard pressed to beat earnings
Analysis of: MMC Sees 4Q Net Income Drop 62% | www.propertyandcasualtyinsurancenews.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
The reason Marsh is struggling is because of poor leadership ending up with $850,000,000+ in fines from NY, IL and CT for bid rigging and prohibited contingency fees.  Future profitability & growth for these brokerages is anything but certain and likely to grow very slowly because they are...
March 4, 2008
Rewarding Doctors Good Medicine to Beat Earning Forcasts
Analysis of: Managed-care company sees benefits of pay-for-performance | www.tennessean.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
The plans that figure out how to get doctors to self manage best of breed chronic care will certainly spend less money treating their insured lives.  For example, preventing a colon cancer, cervical cancer, heart bypass, transplants, premature infant, stroke or MI saves big bucks.  It saves...
February 5, 2008
CMS Leaves American Healthways & Rocks Disease Management
Analysis of: Medicare Proghram End Hurts Healthways | www.forbes.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
     The apparent abandonment of American Healthways DM by CMS is a big deal.  DM is one of the very few promising techniques available to curve costs, and yes, even improve wellness by preventing onset of disease attack.  The premise of limiting "admissions" is what...

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