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GLG News by Railcar Market Experts (EU)

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Toby KolstadApril 18, 2008
New car production losses at Greenbrier (GBX) are eating into overall profits
Analysis of: Greenbrier Q2 profit misses Street estimates, shares fall | www.reuters.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
During the last downturn in the railcar building industry, Greenbrier gained market share while cutting back production since the cars it produced were more popular that the car types manufactured by the other builders. This time around, just the opposite is true; there is almost no demand for the intermodal...
April 14, 2008
BNSF Fuel Surcharge on Coal Transportation – By the Numbers
Analysis of: Railroad Fuel Surcharges Make Shippers Cry Foul | www.desmoinesregister.com
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    The BNSF and other railroads charge in new coal transportation tariffs and contracts a fuel surcharge to recover the cost of fuel.  Other freight moves also come under fuel surcharges.  The commentary that follows discusses by the numbers the BNSF’s fuel surcharge on...
April 14, 2008
Court Case Against EPA’s Clean Air Interstate Rule Offers Sulfur Allowance Opportunity
Analysis of: EPA Announces Results of the Sixteenth Annual Sulfur Dioxide Auction | yosemite.epa.gov
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    The EPA is currently being challenged in the courts by both the states and industry over various aspects of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR).  The outcome of the case could provide an opportunity for those trading SO2 allowances.
April 14, 2008
Current Price of SO2 Allowances Lower Generating Costs and Lower Coal Suppliers’ Realized Prices
Analysis of: EPA Auctions SO2 Allowances for $65.8 Million | uk.reuters.com
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    SO2 allowances are traded daily in the broker and private party markets.  The value of these credits are down, affecting both the cost to generate electricity on coal and the realized sales price received by coal suppliers.
April 14, 2008
Dispatch Costs on Coal to Rise in 2009 Due to CAIR NOx Rules
Analysis of: The Green Exchange Reports Robust First Week Trading Volume in Carbon, US Emissions Contracts | sev.prnewswire.com
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    The Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) requires a further reduction in NOx from coal-fired power plants starting in 2009.  This reduction in NOx will add to the dispatch cost from coal-fired generation.
Toby KolstadApril 11, 2008
Right conclusion, but faulty reasoning that prospects for FreightCar America are not good
Analysis of: Derailed Growth at FreightCar America | seekingalpha.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
Per the author(s) of this blog, 10Q Detective, the prospects of increasing demand for railroad coal cars is not good and therefore the chances of accelerating growth at Freightcar America is also poor. There is so much that is wrong with this article and how it analyses the demand for new coal cars...
Toby KolstadApril 8, 2008
Tight capacity is one of the preconditions for railroad pricing power, so why worry about it?
Analysis of: Rail: Operators choose parallel paths to the same destination | us.ft.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
For almost 100 years, or since 1921 to be precise, the railroad industry has been shedding excess capacity and abandoning lines and terminals. For most of that time, unfortunately, it was also losing traffic to other modes of transportation, primarily to the trucking industry. It was only recently that...
Toby KolstadApril 2, 2008
Idle cars mean cutbacks are coming for railcar builders.
Analysis of: Weak Economy Slows Cargo, Idles Railcars | biz.yahoo.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
The decline in trailer and container shipments, especially those originating at West Coast ports, has resulted in a large surplus of railroad intermodal cars, specifically the doublestack well cars used to handle containerized imports. BNSF (NYSE:BNI) has been reported to have parked thousands of well...
Toby KolstadMarch 26, 2008
CSX Exec boasts confidence in continued turnaround
Analysis of: CSX predicts higher earnings through 2010 | jacksonville.bizjournals.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
Mike Ward said that CSX would continue to enjoy double digit earnings growth for another few years, and he put an exclamation point to his forecast by boosting the share buyback program and increasing the dividend on these shares outstanding. His inspiring words however, might just have been an opening...
Toby KolstadMarch 25, 2008
Limited ethanol distribution channels and slowing production growth means surplus railroad tank cars
Analysis of: Weekly US ethanol profits steady depite corn rise | uk.reuters.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
Two years ago, the ethanol industry went into overdrive in expanding production facilities and ordering railroad tank cars to move the expected flood of new production. No one, however, looked at how the ethanol was to be handled at the customer end of the distribution network and that has produced...

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