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GLG News by Railcar Market Experts (EU)

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Toby KolstadMay 29, 2008
Railroad Intermodal traffic will probably not rebound for quite a while
Analysis of: Soft international container demand drives down total Q1 intermodal volume, IANA says | www.progressiverailroading.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
IANA (Intermodal Association of North America) reported that the first quarter intermodal volume was down 2.4%, almost identical to the decline reported by the AAR several weeks ago. Not surprisingly, the decline in imports was cited as the main reason for the decline, although the losses were partially...
Toby KolstadMay 22, 2008
UP freight rates for Powder River coal are found to be excessive by STB
Analysis of: Union Pacific must cut coal rates for KC utility | biz.yahoo.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
The Surface Transportation Board ruled that the freight rates that the Union Pacific Railroad unilaterally imposed upon Kansas City Power and Light in 2006 for the transportation of their Powder River Coal were in excess of the board’s guidelines for a carrier that had market dominance. Since the STB...
May 19, 2008
Potential Consequences from Recent Drop in SO2 Allowance Prices
Analysis of: Alliant Investing $85 Million to Meet Clean Air Rules | www.redorbit.com
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    The recent plunge in SO2 allowance prices may affect the decisions of coal-fired power plant owners.
May 19, 2008
Activated Carbon Injection for Mercury Control at Coal Plants
Analysis of: Controlling Mercury Emissions | pubs.acs.org
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruling on February 8, 2009 in favor of the plaintiffs that coal plants could not be removed from the list of mercury sources subject to a Maximum Available Control Technology (MACT) standard and the subsequent movements to require EPA to set...
Toby KolstadMay 16, 2008
Trade Mag. finally gets it right; CSX is on the road to recovery after years of poor management
Analysis of: CSX powers up for a fight | www.railwayage.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
Trade magazines are usually constrained to write only positive comments about the companies in the industries they cover, since subscriptions and ad revenues are more dependent on goodwill rather than good investigative reporting. In the article reviewed below however, the writer/editor finally fesses...
Larry ShughartMay 12, 2008
Are railroads hiding behing the "Growth Capital" moniker?
Analysis of: New Era Dawns for Rail Building | online.wsj.com
Author: Larry Shughart, Vice President of Business Development, Innovative Scheduling
“growth capital” may really be the result of a railroad’s failure to actively manage their physical plant in a way the ensures capital investment  and disinvestment closely maps to changes in traffic volumes from year to year and from corridor to corridor.
Larry ShughartMay 12, 2008
Why are Railroad Replacement Costs Higher than Book Value?
Analysis of: New costing approach key to railroad capital market access, expansion, growth | www.aar.org
Author: Larry Shughart, Vice President of Business Development, Innovative Scheduling
One reason a railroad's replacement cost is higher than its book value is that the company has been harvesting the infrastructure by deferring normal replacement cycles such that the average quality and life remaining of the installed base is much less than what would be expected under...
Toby KolstadMay 9, 2008
Coal car builder Freightcar America blames poor economy while coal traffic is up 4%
Analysis of: UPDATE 1-FreightCar profit plummets, cites economy, costs | www.reuters.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
CEO’s never like to go into lengthy explanations on the dynamics of their industry in explaining a dismal financial performance, but with year to date coal volumes up 4.6%, according to the most recent AAR report, blaming the economy for the problems besetting the company seems more like dodging the...
May 6, 2008
Power Companies’ Generation Mix May Determine Their Financial Outcome Under CO2 Allowance Allocation
Analysis of: Power Companies Vie for Advantage Under Climate Plan | seattle.bizjournals.com
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    All of the various regulations being discussed in the U.S. Congress to slow, stabilize, and then reduce CO2 emissions nationally include some type of cap and trade system.  Each of these programs have a portion of the CO2 emissions allowances being allocated for free to...
May 6, 2008
New Coal Plants and Required Coal Railcars
Analysis of: Q1 2008 FreightCar America Earnings Conference Call | www.freightcaramerica.com
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    The biggest driver for orders of coal railcars will be the new coal plants coming on line the next few years.  The commentary section below discusses the number of new coal plants presented by FreightCar America on its Q1 2008 conference call versus an updated analysis by...

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