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GLG News by Railcar Market Experts (EU)

Toby Kolstad, President
Toby Kolstad, President
Rail Theory Forecasts
Analysis of: Rail Freight Traffic Trails Year Ago Week (www.aar.org)
Enough weeks have passed in the second quarter to make a guess of how the second quarter’s carload statistics of each of the US railroads might look. Although car loadings for the year are down 4.5%, not all railroads did this badly. Some have done better than their reported performance during the first...
Toby Kolstad, President
Toby Kolstad, President
Rail Theory Forecasts
Analysis of: Icahn joins Buffett for a ride on the rails (www.marketwatch.com)
Everyone seems to be buying railroad stocks, from short term hedge funds looking for a turnaround in management performance and financial strategy, to long term value investors like Buffet and Icahn who see promising business prospects and well positioned companies. Both groups seem to have “found”...
Toby Kolstad, President
Toby Kolstad, President
Rail Theory Forecasts
Analysis of: Burlington Northern idles more than 400 employees (money.cnn.com)
The layoffs by the Class I railroads that have recently been reported were well received by Wall Street and the prices of their stocks increased. The report of the layoffs was old news however, to most of the crewman affected, since railroad traffic has been below last year’s level since the start of...
Thomas Shewski, Owner
High Energy Services
Analysis of: Dark Days for Coal Miner Massey (www.forbes.com)
    As the article points out, Massey Energy was hit with an EPA lawsuit for approximately $1.7 billion alleging violation of the Clean Water Act. The EPA issued the suit based on Massey exceeding the average monthly or daily permit limit between January 2000 and March 2006.     The...
Toby Kolstad, President
Toby Kolstad, President
Rail Theory Forecasts
Analysis of: Private Equity Takes To The Rails (www.forbes.com)
Norfolk Southern’s CEO recently stated that the private equity LBO model is not suited to railroads. The recent purchase of the Florida East Coast Railroad by the private equity group Fortress Investment Group LLC is not an exception to his comment. The FEC was owned by a holding company that also has...
Thomas Shewski, Owner
High Energy Services
Analysis of: Market Report (news.moneycentral.msn.com)
Coal from the coal fields in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming have to compete on a delivered-, emissions-adjusted basis to coal’s in the other producing regions, such as the Central Appalachian Basin. The recent increase in Eastern coal prices and SO2 emissions allowances now allow the Powder River...
Thomas Shewski, Owner
High Energy Services
Analysis of: FreightCar America VP Sells Shares (www.forbes.com)
FreightCar America Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing exercised 32,980 shares of company stock at $19 each on May 3 and sold the shares for $46.88 each on May 4. According to SEC Form 4, he beneficially owns 7,000 shares after this transaction. It may be that FreightCar America Management...
Thomas Shewski, Owner
High Energy Services
Analysis of: Households Would Need New Bulbs to Meet Lighting-Efficiency Rule (online.wsj.com)
The article in The Wall Street Journal describes potential Legislation to require the use of compact fluorescent bulbs (CFL) and other energy-saving lights to decrease the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from coal-fired power plants. The Analysis Section below has some additional math and discussion...
Analysis of: Greenbrier Posts 2Q Loss, Sales Flat (biz.yahoo.com)
1. There is a current softening the railcar construction market, but the long-term favorable industry demographics are in GBX's favor. 2. GBX is in partnership with Bombardier at the Sahagun, Mexico plant, and an experienced Mexican management team is in place there. 3. The railcar repair and maintenance...
Toby Kolstad, President
Toby Kolstad, President
Rail Theory Forecasts
Analysis of: Trinty Industries annouces first quarter earnings (biz.yahoo.com)
Trinity Industries reported 1st quarter earnings of $0.74 per share, compared to their best quarterly earnings from ongoing operations of $0.71 in the fourth quarter of 2006. Moreover, their backlog of unfilled orders increased to an all time high of 37,790 cars, which represented almost 50% of the...

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