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GLG News by Railcar Market Experts (EU)

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Toby KolstadJanuary 30, 2008
The fourth quarter orders for new railcars were inflated to make a bad situation look good.
Analysis of: Rail-car orders up in fourth quarter, but expect decline in '08, EPA says | www.progressiverailroading.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
Last week the ARCI released the railcar industries results for the fourth quarter of 2007, including 23,722 new orders, 14,862 deliveries, and a backlog of 75, 860 cars. Normally, those types of numbers would signal a rising production schedule in the year ahead. Instead, total deliveries in 2008 are...
January 25, 2008
Coal Consumption in Southeast Could Gain if Drought Causes Reduction in Nuclear Electricity Generation
Analysis of: South’s Drought a Threat to Nuclear Power Plants | www.freep.com
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    If low water levels used for cooling caused nuclear plants to operate less or back-off entirely at certain locations, this would be bullish for coal-fired (and natural gas-fired generation) and mitigate or cancel the concerns of an economic slowdown on coal-fired electricity...
Toby KolstadJanuary 24, 2008
Railroad’s pricing power continues to offset traffic loses
Analysis of: Railroads Report Strong Q4 | biz.yahoo.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
Both Norfolk Southern (NSC) and CSX Transportation (CSX) posted strong earnings for the fourth quarter and the year in spite of traffic losses. Costs were tightly controlled on both systems and were reduced in proportion to the contractions in traffic, allowing all of the freight rate increases to be...
January 21, 2008
Coal Consumption at Electric Power Sector Unlikely to Decline if U.S. Enters Recession
Analysis of: Citigroup forecasts 'dim' 4Q mining/metals earnings outlook | www.stockhouse.ca
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    Discussion has been made that a U.S. recession will cause a decline in coal consumption by the electric power sector.  This is unlikely based on coal’s relative cost to generate electricity and the historical coal consumption by the electric power sector in previous economic...
January 21, 2008
Treatment of SO2 Allowance Sales Proceeds by Regulated Utilities
Analysis of: Idaho Power wants to invest in wind power: Your rates could go up initially, the company says about a plan that would invest money from selling sulfur dioxide emission allowances. | www.tradingmarkets.com
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    Coal generators have been taking efforts to reduce sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from coal-fired power plants.  Regulated utilities are required to treat the reduced SO2 emissions differently than unregulated utilities, merchant generators, and independent power producers...
January 21, 2008
Snowpack Could be Bright for Pacific Northwest Investor Owned Utilities’ First and Second Quarter Earnings
Analysis of: Snowpack Brightens Power Outlook | www.missoulian.com
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    The Pacific Northwest has a tremendous amount of installed hydroelectric capacity.  The first and second quarter earnings of the investor owned utilities in the Pacific Northwest very greatly with hydroelectric conditions.  Preliminary reports are robust for the snowpack...
January 17, 2008
Comments on Van Eck’s Market Vectors Coal ETF That Tracks Stowe Coal Index
Analysis of: New Coal ETF Offers Alternative to Oil | seekingalpha.com
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    Van Eck’s Market Vectors Coal ETF (KOL) is designed to track the coal markets through the recently released Stowe Coal Index.  The index is comprised of 60 companies around the world in the coal industry.       Comments that follow discuss the...
Toby KolstadJanuary 15, 2008
Greenbrier needs a better second half to match their regular earnings in 2007
Analysis of: UPDATE 2-Greenbrier Q1 earnings trail Street, shares fall | www.reuters.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
Greenbrier’s reported earnings that were only one third of what had been expected, and even before the special charges due to more plant closing costs and currency losses, the earnings would have been 30% lower than had been recently estimated for the company.  Greenbrier tried to put a positive...
Toby KolstadJanuary 7, 2008
Railcar builders are in two camps, those in for a rough year, and those holding their own.
Analysis of: Rail Stocks Are Still off the Track | www.thestreet.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
It is difficult to argue with Chris Versace’s facts regarding the past performance of the railcar builders and the railcar industry in general. This is a cyclical industry and the past is often prelude to the future. However, his broad assertions that roughly apply to the industry as a whole and perhaps...
Toby KolstadDecember 27, 2007
Union Tank Car will probably remain independent
Analysis of: Berkshire Hathaway to Buy $4.5 Bln Marmon Stake | uk.reuters.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
Berkshire Hathaway announced that it had agreed to purchase Marmon Holdings, Inc. from the Pritzker family. Union Tank Car Company, the oldest railcar lessor and tank car builder in the nation, is owed by Marmon and has been the subject of rumors during the past year regarding a possible sale of the...

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