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GLG News by Railcar Market Experts (EU)

Toby Kolstad, President

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Mr. Buffet, buying a real railroad is not like in the board game.

November 6, 2009

Buffett: Railroad business is 'in tune with the future' | www.usatoday.com

Hardly anyone can resist the temptation to by a railroad in the game of “Monopoly.” They are reasonably priced, have OK earnings potential, and if all four are owned, they have outsized rental rates and the payment rates with sites on all four sides of the board. In real life however, railroads are rarely cheap compared to their earnings and the STB will keep anyone from owning more than one. So why would such an astute investor as Warren Buffet purchase one?

Toby Kolstad, President

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Freightcar America has a strong balance sheet; but that’s all!

October 3, 2009

FreightCar America: A Long-Term Bargain Today | stocks.investopedia.com

Freightcar America is a fine company with an old pedigree and a reputation for producing some of the best coal cars in America. Although the company has no debt, it also has few prospects for growth, since it seems that almost everyone, want to decrease coal usage in the future. While it has designs for other car types, it has never produced any of these in sufficient quantities to offset any substantial decline that it may be facing in its coal car business.

Toby Kolstad, President

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Continued Rise in rail traffic is far from certain

September 28, 2009

Back On Track? | finance.yahoo.com

The weekly AAR railroad traffic report is an excellent real-time indicator of the health of the economy. Unfortunately, the volume changes, even when measured over many weeks, are generally so small that they are dismissed by most observers. Moreover, the freight rate increases pushed by the railroads during the past few years have blurred the falling traffic levels behind a screen of rising revenues and profits.

Toby Kolstad, President

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

NS is tooting is own horn too loudly on fuel efficiency!

September 16, 2009

Norfolk Southern's Sustainability Report Highlights Carbon Footprint, Improved Fuel Economy | finance.yahoo.com

Norfolk Southern rightly claims that it has increased it fuel efficiency by 10% during the past ten years; but that achievement is less than half of what the other major carriers in the U.S. have achieved during the same period. The BNSF has notched a 24% gain, the UP has made a 23% improvement, and its Eastern competitor, CSX has managed a 17% in just the last seven years. So what is there to brag about?

Toby Kolstad, President

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

If rail volumes are up by 8%, why are earnings forecasts up 20%?

September 15, 2009

The planes, trains and automobiles rally | money.cnn.com

Freight transportation volumes and freight company earnings have always been a good indicator of how the overall economy is doing, and the current transport trends appear to be support the conclusion that the economy has stopped contracting and is now expanding. However, with rail traffic up only between 4% and 8% on the four largest US carriers over the totals posted for the second quarter, why are earnings forecasted to grow by 18% to 25% from the same period?

Toby Kolstad, President

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Rail Traffic is up slightly, mostly due to Clunker program

September 7, 2009

AAR Reports Rail Traffic Continues to Register Gains Rail Carloadings at Highest Level Since December 2008 | www.aar.org

The volume of railroad traffic for the week ending August 29th was the highest since the end of 2008 and continued the slight upward trend in weekly car loadings that began in early July. Most of the gains appeared to be related to the cash-for-clunkers program, which means it may not continue in coming weeks.

Toby Kolstad, President

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Domestic intermodal traffic is best hope for railroad recovery

August 19, 2009

CSX Starts Work on Major Intermodal Site | www.joc.com

In 2003, revenue from railroad intermodal traffic surpassed receipts for coal shipments in the US, mainly due to the phenomenal growth of imported containers. Although both are down this year and both imports and coal traffic may take a while, if ever, to recover to 2007 levels, domestic intermodal may eventually replace them both as the engine of growth for railroad revenue, at least that is what the railroads must be hoping.

Toby Kolstad, President

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Railcar industry will take time to recover, lots of time.

August 10, 2009

2Q freight car production results “not surprising” | www.railwayage.com

 There were only 2,165 orders for new railcars during the second quarter, while deliveries totaled 6,463 cars according to the ARCI. Both numbers were 20% less than the totals reported for the first quarter and appear to support both a forecast of 22,000 deliveries in 2009 and a much lower production rate for 2010. Beyond 2010, the future is a lot cloudier than some forecasters will admit, especially those projecting a return to pre-recession production levels within a few years.

Toby Kolstad, President

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Cost control has been preserving profits for all the major railroads

July 27, 2009

CSX 2nd-qtr profit down 20 percent as shipping volume shrinks, fuel surcharges dry up | www.wtxx.com

 US railroad traffic and revenues are down for the second quarter, but earnings are up. Management response to dramatic shifts in traffic has not always been as timely in the past as railroad operating ratios have usually trended up during traffic downturns. The change however, owes as much to some industry changes as to improvements in management skills.

Toby Kolstad, President

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts What is a GLG Leader?|GLG Leaders are a separate tier of Council Members with a Council Rank in the top 5%. These GLG Member Program participants are eligible for ongoing, in-depth consultative relationships with GLG clients.

Tough times for railcar builders and especially for The Greenbrier Companies

July 14, 2009

The Greenbrier Companies (NYSE: GBX) Posts Q3 Loss Amid Contract Dispute with General Electric (NYSE: GE) | www.hotstocked.com

In the quarterly earnings release, Greenbrier (GBX) noted that it had delivered only 800 cars compared to 1,300 last quarter and 2,200 during the comparable quarter in 2008. The decline in business will be a common theme for all railcar builders this quarter, and the outlook for the next twelve months is not encouraging. Deliveries are expected to keep falling for the rest of the year and possibly next year if the economy doesn’t show the classic “V” shaped recovery pattern in the GDP. Some builders will suffer more than others, and Greenbrier may be among the builders who see the most significant decline in new car production.

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