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GLG News by Railcar Market Experts (EU)

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October 8, 2008
Refund on Coal Excise Tax Paid on Exports Contained in Emergency Stabilization Act
Analysis of: Coal Gets Help in Financial Bailout | wvgazette.com
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    As the referenced article states, there are many benefits in the Emergency Stabilization Act for the coal industry.  One not discussed is the refund of the coal excise tax.  The commentary section discusses this.
Toby KolstadOctober 8, 2008
Railcar deliveries will fall again in 2009 by a significant amount
Analysis of: Rail equipment shares fall as KeyBanc lowers estimates and outlook for deliveries | biz.yahoo.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
The stock prices of all railcar builders declined after a recent prediction by a KeyBank analyst that railcar deliveries will fall in 2009. He estimated that deliveries in 2009 would fall to around 37,000 cars from the 45,000 to 50,000 cars expected this year. It is hard to argue with this forecast...
October 7, 2008
Refined Coal – Things to Consider as a Result of Changes to Tax Credit Qualification
Analysis of: Congress Extends Refined Coal Tax Credit | www.marketwatch.com
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    The Emergency Stabilization Act signed into law on October 3, 2008 includes an extension of tax credits for renewable energy and refined coal.  The discussion that follows includes items to consider regarding the refined coal tax credit.
Toby KolstadOctober 7, 2008
Freight rate increases have been only story for NS profits in 2008
Analysis of: US freight lines carrying a lighter burden | us.ft.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
In every story about railroad traffic and railroad profits in this, and indeed in all of the last few years, commentators have used revenue growth as a surrogate for traffic increases, neglecting to inform the reader that traffic levels have been uncharacteristically stagnant in the recent  economic...
September 22, 2008
Activated Carbon for Mercury Control – Potential Demand
Analysis of: ADES: Multi-Year Supply Contract with Luminant for Activated Carbon | www.tradingmarkets.com
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled on February 8, 2009 in favor of the plaintiffs that coal plants could not be removed from the list of mercury sources subject to a Maximum Available Control Technology (MACT) standard and the subsequent movements to require EPA to set a...
September 22, 2008
Coal Railcar Market
Analysis of: UBS Cuts FreightCar America to ‘Sell’ on Price | www.forbes.com
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    The commentary section discusses the current market and outlook for coal railcars
September 22, 2008
Natural Gas vs. Coal Generating Economics
Analysis of: NYMEX Natural Gas Rises with Crude, Damage Reports | www.forbes.com
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    The fuel-switching from coal to natural gas affects the demand and price for each commodity.  The commentary below discusses what issues are part of the analysis of a utility or merchant fuel buyer on whether to switch fuel sources to fuel power plants.
September 22, 2008
Coal Transportation Outlook for the Railroads
Analysis of: Railroad Shipping | www.logisticsmgmt.com
Author: Thomas Shewski, Owner, High Energy Services
    Although the year-to-date and outlook for many of the items transported by the U.S. railroads are down, coal transportation has been positive.  The commentary section below discusses the positives of coal transportation for the railroads.
Toby KolstadSeptember 19, 2008
Wabtec (WAB) continues to grow
Analysis of: Wabtec to acquire Chicago rail supplier for $300M | pittsburgh.bizjournals.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
Standard Car Truck will be a great addition to the Wabtec family of companies. There is no overlap in product lines and most of the products offered by Standard will compliment those already made at Wabtec. Moreover, there are potential synergies that may enable the company to grow organically...
Toby KolstadSeptember 16, 2008
It’s not just falling fuel prices that are driving railroad profits
Analysis of: Analyst sees short-term leap for 2 biggest rails | biz.yahoo.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
On September 10, an analyst at USB thought that the two major western railroads would do well in the second half of 2008, the day before CSX upgraded its earnings estimates for its third quarter from around $3.55 to $3.70.  USB had also upgraded Norfolk Southern to a BUY on September 10. Most analysts...

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