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GLG News by Production Homebuilding Experts

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Paul BurnsJuly 8, 2008
Housing Market Costs Coming To Roost Now
Analysis of: Fix Congress’s Housing Fix | www.usnews.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
The public is now going to be asked to support the housing mania of the 1st years of this century with tax look-backs to previous profits, with extended activity by the quasi-public lenders, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, and with government backing for loans written down to 85% of the new appraisal. ...
Paul BurnsJuly 8, 2008
How Long Is This Going To Take?
Analysis of: Bank Job | www.portfolio.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
This article notes the recent statement building financing of financial institutions and concludes its opening remarks with “I don’t know, you don’t know, and they don’t know”.  The article states the assumptions of current bank recapitalizations and in particular recaps the Bear Stearns acquisition. ...
July 4, 2008
Common story in many locales.
Analysis of: Unfinished subdivisions grinding to a halt | www.azcentral.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
This article is right on the money as the developers who leveraged all their financing on selling the whole community got caught in a down turned market. I don't think communities will become "ghost towns" as this will be an opportunity for large developers to buy at a reduced price.
July 3, 2008
Developed Lot/Land Foreclosures Rising Rapidly, Banks Struggle for a Strategy
Analysis of: Unfinished subdivisions grinding to a halt | www.azcentral.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
While banks are selling foreclosed homes in the Atlanta market for close to 90% of the loan amount, their vacant lots and land are not selling at all.  Builders and developers that have been paying interest for months are running out (or have run out) of cash.  Banks are struggling to find...
July 2, 2008
Tell Me Again How Housing Has "Bottomed Out".
Analysis of: KB Home’s Loss Widens as Inventory of Unsold Houses Mounts | online.wsj.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
The numbers reported by KB Homes are very similar to those reported by Lennar and other major, publicly-traded homebuilders. Sales are off drastically, contract cancellations continue to be problematic and losses are mounting. For the National Association of Realtors and other trade organizations, as...
July 1, 2008
Pass the Buck
Analysis of: Building costs a headache for developers | uk.reuters.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Life as a Developer has always been about who you know and what you know.Knowledge of building materials and cost are basic things developers need to survive. Things have changed a great deal the last 5-10 years. Most "new developers" and general contractors have never lifted a hammer or worn dirty...
June 25, 2008
Price Corrections Are Not As Bad As Reported
Analysis of: Home Prices Continue Sharp Descent | money.cnn.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Home prices have indeed experienced significant corrections.  However, some reports of price reductions may be exaggerated due to innacurate methodology. 
Paul BurnsJune 23, 2008
Commercial Real Estate Recourse Financing
Analysis of: Guarantee Gamble: Developers Dread Return of Recourse | online.wsj.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
There were names like Fox & Carskadon, McNeil and Consolidated Capital among the biggest income property acquisition syndicators in the 70’s and 80’s, but no more.  And no more are thousands of other syndicators of that era big and small, who generally fell by the wayside as they could not...
Paul BurnsJune 23, 2008
American Demographics
Analysis of: The American Dream Goes On | www.usnews.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
The referenced article begins with the now usual doomsday message which many including this writer have now exhausted ad nauseam.  Three relatively short paragraphs later, the Editor-in-Chief wraps up the forgone conclusions neatly and attempts to move on to some new meat.  You can read the...
June 23, 2008
It Isn't What's Above the Surface That Makes an Iceberg Dangerous
Analysis of: NAR Report Details Impact of Credit Crisis on Commercial RE | www.cpnonline.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
To assert that "times are tough but not as tough as during the recession of the early 2000s" is to look no further than the numbers, ignoring the underlying issues, which the NAR and many other trade organizations are quite good at. The numbers may not show it now, but the commercial real estate market...

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