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GLG News by Production Homebuilding Experts

Paul Burns, Owner
Paul Burns, Owner
City Investments
Analysis of: The changing housing market: A bang or a whimper? (www.bos.frb.org)
I like three of the points made here best.  Housing prices have been increasing faster than incomes, the sub-prime market has never been tested in a down housing market and if the market becomes an auction market, prices can fall sharply.  I think these are the keys to further price and...
Analysis of: Are Consumers Sick of Development? Attitudes against Land-Use Development Grow Deeper, Survey Says (rismedia.com)
This rather limited survey, reflecting on my past statistics courses, do not provide a large enough sampling with which to apply an inferential analysis.  However, it is telling to a certain degree, as to the general populace's psyche where "progress" is concerned.  On this note I offer a...
Paul Burns, Owner
Paul Burns, Owner
City Investments
Analysis of: Rent Increases May Ease as Condo Market Softens (www.wsj.com)
With the exception of the high-end of the Class “A” rental apartment market, affordability is an issue with tenants.  Every rent increase calls for a household budget adjustment that causes pain to other providers of household goods and services.  We’ve noted several times that wages for the...
Paul Burns, Owner
Paul Burns, Owner
City Investments
Analysis of: Mortgage Bonds Hurt By Delinquencies, Housing Slump (Update 1) (www.bloomberg.com)
The lending picture in the home loan industry is not great.  Defaults are rising and the next sub-prime pools will include tougher underwriting and higher rates.  Volume is down in the purchase market and refinances are more difficult to accomplish.
Paul Burns, Owner
Paul Burns, Owner
City Investments
Analysis of: Are Consumers Sick of Development? Attitudes against Land-Use Development Grow Deeper, Survey Says (rismedia.com)
I think people are concerned, better informed and a lot more forceful in their wishes for the community they have selected than in the past.  Don’t expect the process to get less intensive in the future.  The residents selected the community because it had a set of qualities they wanted to...
Paul Burns, Owner
Paul Burns, Owner
City Investments
Analysis of: Industrial Real Estate Market Remained Healthy In Third Quarter (manufacturing.net)
I am offering this observation as support rather than a change of prediction. Again, it appears there will be pressure on the retail/wholesale and manufacturing sectors which will reduce demand for industrial property in the near term.  However, I just see less success rather than collapse in this...
Paul Burns, Owner
Paul Burns, Owner
City Investments
Analysis of: Industrial Real Estate Market Remained Healthy In Third Quarter (manufacturing.net)
I believe we’ll see reduced absorption numbers for industrial property in the near future periods. The housing boom has stimulated retail which has required warehousing primarily for distribution of goods manufactured overseas.  All segments here will slow as this chain retreats.
Paul Burns, Owner
Paul Burns, Owner
City Investments
Analysis of: Colony Capital Gets Mack-Cali's Xanadu Share (www.globest.com)
A lot has happened here all of a sudden:  Canada’s Ivanhoe has taken over the offshore developments, the Chicago development has been sold and now Colony Capital has removed the Xanadu property from the Mills table.  Mills announced that sales for the last 12 were $ 392 per sq. ft. versus...
Paul Burns, Owner
Paul Burns, Owner
City Investments
Analysis of: What Blackstone Bet Means for Real Estate Investors (online.wsj.com)
The Zell money is assured of a reasonable profit at the close of the transaction.  Blackstone’s investors are a lot less certain to profit.  The buy is huge and comes after a long expansion of the economy.  The exit price here will depend on increases in rents.  You’ll need a similarly...
Paul Burns, Owner
Paul Burns, Owner
City Investments
November 27, 2006
High–Rise Mania
Analysis of: High-rise condos sprouting: Luxury residences in San Francisco are plentiful as developers jump into market sector that hasn't slowed (sfgate.com)
The long lag time for approval and development of high rise residential for sale product leads developers from a potentially profitable but small market niche to potentially disastrous construction.  Developers armed with yesterday’s market forecasts have made development decisions on projects...

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