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GLG News by Production Homebuilding Experts

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Dennis CisternaFebruary 26, 2008
No Bottoming Out Soon
Analysis of: Existing Home Sales Decline | biz.yahoo.com
Author: Dennis Cisterna, Principal, American Pacific Development
Unsold inventory is at an extremely high level, which will be increased significantly as mortgage foreclosures continue to ramp up through 2008.  The median home price has dropped only 4.6% year over year.  Even with historically low interest rates, the credit crunch will continue to suppress...
Paul BurnsFebruary 25, 2008
This ULI panel says retail space will change from malls to the next generation design
Analysis of: ULI Asks: 'Can Stand-Alone Malls Survive?' | www.globest.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
Now a panel empowered by the U.L.I. has declared the old EMAC dead and the future of retailing to be provided in a planned environment housing not only retail but residents and the total commercial and industrial needs of the community.  Today that seems to mean that individual retail stores will...
February 19, 2008
IS THIS THE BEGINNING OF THE END?
Analysis of: The "R" Word | www.lvrj.com
Author: Steve Bottfeld, Principal, Marketing Solutions
The Las Vegas housing industry started the New Year with dismal sales volume, declining inventory and median prices that appear to be in the process of stabilizing.  In view of January’s housing statistics, this year may, in fact, have started with a good news/bad news scenario. The bad news came...
Paul BurnsFebruary 11, 2008
Notes on the Evolution of the Sub-Prime Solution
Analysis of: Preventing a Panic | www.usnews.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
The Editorial referenced presents a picture of treasury risk that is not understood and therefore not ratable at this time. The combination of insurance underwriting failures and leverage and ultimate liability, however, at the worst threatens to bust institutions holding portfolios when the losses...
Paul BurnsFebruary 4, 2008
The Mall is in free-fall
Analysis of: Birth, Death and Shopping | www.economist.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
 The modern mall is a creature that is usually now 35 or so years old.  The birth and evolution of the industry is chronicled in the featured article.  Originally some 1600 strong, the breed now numbers say 1100 and will diminish further as the next era evolves.
Paul BurnsFebruary 4, 2008
The U.S. needs the basic housing product it last built n the 1940's
Analysis of: Home Affordability | www.marketwatch.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
The featured commentary notes that even as home prices across the nation implode, affordability ratios are not moving in favor of the consumer.  Wages are lagging the increase in household budget items such as utility costs, food, transportation, gasoline and heating oil, communications services...
Paul BurnsJanuary 28, 2008
What's happening on the border?
Analysis of: Tijuana Mayhem | www.signonsandiego.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
At the same time the subject article was running, the New York Times and Los Angeles Times printed articles about the Federales pursuing the gangs on Tijuana’s streets and the mayor taking gunfire at home. This vast country of say 50+ million is looking more and more like its third world cousins...
January 22, 2008
SIGN POSTS INDICATE BETTER YEAR FOR LAS VEGAS
Analysis of: Homes for Sale in Las Vegas Still Sliding | www.lvrj.com
Author: Steve Bottfeld, Principal, Marketing Solutions
Housing market’s statistics from 2007 showed why Las Vegas builders and Realtors raised their glasses to toast the New Year with trembling hands. Many analysts have already forecast 2008 to be a worse year for Las Vegas than 2007. I disagree.
Paul BurnsJanuary 22, 2008
Contrasting housing markets
Analysis of: New housing outlook: 5 years to recover | www.azcentral.com
Author: Paul Burns, Owner, City Investments
Finally we have the first forecast of a housing recovery that seems believable. The five year forecast for Phoenix appeals to my sense of reality and I agree. I also agree that we will forget the current pain and euphoria will reign again.
January 14, 2008
What is the 2008 outlook for homebuilding?
Analysis of: Analyzing Homebuilder Risks | seekingalpha.com
Author: David Keller, Former Chief Financial Officer, Technical Olympic USA Inc.
What will happen in 2008 for the homebuilding industry? Will cash be generated? Will there be failures? Will there be profits?

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