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Toby KolstadSeptember 3, 2008
Aside from Wabtec and one or two other supply companies, real growth in railroad industry is hard to find.
Analysis of: You Need This Growth Stock | www.stockpickr.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
The current renaissance for the railroad industry began in 2004 when railroad traffic exploded (double digit gains in some key traffic segments) and freight rates were unlocked and allowed to seek a market level. For the railroad companies, the exceptional profit gains since 2005 have been almost exclusively...
Jack LiftonSeptember 1, 2008
Recalls: The True Costs of Outsouricng Both The Part And The Quality Control
Analysis of: GM recalling 944,000 vehicles | www.forbes.com
Author: Jack Lifton, Managing Director, Jack Lifton, LLC
The Detroit Three followed the lead of Jacques Nasser at Ford in the early 1990s and began to eliminate internal supplier quality management and PPAP, production parts approval processes. After internal engineering supplier monitoring had been made into a supplier self approval regime came the outsourcing...
Jack LiftonAugust 29, 2008
Bob Lutz Seems to Have Learned Doublespeak From George Orwell. Failure is Success, Says Lutz.
Analysis of: Carmakers Deserve Loan Guarantees, G.M. Official Says | www.nytimes.com
Author: Jack Lifton, Managing Director, Jack Lifton, LLC
On what basis do OEM American carmakers deserve federal loan guarantees? Is it because their legacy costs weren't their own fault? Is it because they made lower quality vehicles than their foreign competitors? Is it because they sent American jobs overseas so that the unemployed workers they created...
Craig MarstonAugust 28, 2008
Wrong Timing For Shipyard Consolidation
Analysis of: Usual suspects | www.tradewinds.no
Author: Craig Marston, Managing Director, CEM Marine
Tradewinds reported that the list of suitors for the 50.4% stake being offered in Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME) includes Hyundai Heavy Industry, Posco, the GS Group, and Hanwha Group.  Analysts expect a bidding war to result.  While a great time for sellers to unlock...
Craig MarstonAugust 28, 2008
Jinhui Too Optimistic
Analysis of: Macro meltdown? | www.tradewinds.no
Author: Craig Marston, Managing Director, CEM Marine
Jinhui Shipping & Transportation (Oslo:JIN.OL) reported record profits and simultaneously warned of weaker medium term prospects.  The company rightly cited macroeconomic concerns on the demand side, but is overly optimistic related to the supply side.
Craig MarstonAugust 27, 2008
NOL Likely To Acquire Hapag-Lloyd
Analysis of: NOL will not pay over the odds for Hapag | www.lloydslist.com
Author: Craig Marston, Managing Director, CEM Marine
Despite the 4b Euro "minimum" price that TUI is placing on Hapag, opposition from Hamburg, and a very conservative acquisition history, NOL is very likely to be the successful bidder.
Jack LiftonAugust 26, 2008
Minor Metals Markets Are Not Transparent And Hedging Non Exchange Traded Metals Requires Great Skill
Analysis of: Can One Man’s Actions Take $6 Billion In Value Out Of A Minor Metal Market In A Month? | www.resourceinvestor.com
Author: Jack Lifton, Managing Director, Jack Lifton, LLC
End users of minor metals for critical purposes, i.e., for purposes that are not economically or technologically possible without a particular minor metal, can hedge the required supply of metal by financing the producer's output, through offtake agreements, for example, and by being the buyer of last...
Toby KolstadAugust 25, 2008
Many companies besides the major railroads will benefit from resurgence of railroad industry
Analysis of: Following Buffett's Railroad Tracks | seekingalpha.com
Author: Toby Kolstad, President, Rail Theory Forecasts
The Class I railroads have boosted their earnings and share prices in recent years by increasing their freight rates much faster than their costs have risen, both fuel and labor. The high price/earnings multiples of their common shares (ranging between 17 and 21) attest to many investors’ belief that...
Craig MarstonAugust 20, 2008
Credit Crunch Not A Factor For Overall Shipbuilding Industry
Analysis of: Credit Crunch Spreads to Shipyards | www.marinelink.com
Author: Craig Marston, Managing Director, CEM Marine
The impact of the "credit crunch," while real for individual companies, is not a factor for the overall shipbuilding industry.  The few building slots that have been canceled by owner default have been readily resold at higher margins.  The drop-off in post-2010 orders has its roots in oversupply...
Jack LiftonAugust 20, 2008
Have Chrysler's Cereberus Accountants Uncovered Systemic Fraud In The OEM Automotive Supplier Cost-Cutting Agenda, Or Is It Just Hypocrisy They Have "Found"?
Analysis of: Chrysler Sues Johnson Controls For $15M In Overcharges | online.wsj.com
Author: Jack Lifton, Managing Director, Jack Lifton, LLC
In just this year Cerberus' accountants may have inadvertently exposed the seamy side of cost cutting in the American OEM automtoive industry: 1. Overcharging by non-competitive politically correct suppliers, 2. Underbidding by suppliers desparate to keep their own factories open, and now 3. Short-weighting...

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