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GLG News by Homebuilding Joint Venture Experts

Paul Burns, Owner
Paul Burns, Owner
City Investments
Analysis of: No denying mortgage crisis will worsen (www.signonsandiego.com)
The mortgage market will benefit from: 1.  A new sub-prime industry with an equity requirement for buyers; 2.  The resurgence of the FHA; 3.  Attractive lender financing for foreclosed property.
Paul Burns, Owner
Paul Burns, Owner
City Investments
Analysis of: Subprime Meltdown (www.wsj.com)
Here’s what the future holds: 1.  Accelerated foreclosures/deeds in lieu/short sales leading to record inventories of unsold houses and for-sale pricing crashes nationwide; 2.  The inability of home builders, land developers and leveraged land investors/speculators to hold their positions...
Jim Belfiore, President
Jim Belfiore, President
Belfiore Real Estate Consulting
Analysis of: Valley's housing market shows more of a pulse (www.azcentral.com)
The most recent article on speculative homes published in The Arizona Republic reports 12,000 to 15,000 units are sitting on the market - a drastic change from the 25,000 units reported by the same source just 3 months ago.  Do you trust the source of your information?
Jim Belfiore, President
Jim Belfiore, President
Belfiore Real Estate Consulting
March 6, 2007
The Risk to Follow
Analysis of: Mortgage Defaults Start to Spread (online.wsj.com)
Mortgage defaults and tightening lending standards should be on the minds of those active in the home building industry. Not only are subprime lenders struggling, Alt-A mortgage providers are experiencing higher than expected default rates.
Paul Burns, Owner
Paul Burns, Owner
City Investments
Analysis of: Freddie Mac to toughen mortgage Standards (ww.usatoday.com)
 The evidence piled up last week to support: 1.  The premise that housing prices will plummet as foreclosures rise, loans to facilitate housing purchases will become more dear as to terms if not cost and affordability is stretched further by energy, food and healthcare costs; 2. ...
Paul Burns, Owner
Paul Burns, Owner
City Investments
Analysis of: Single Women Head For Homes (www.sacbee.com)
The contention of interest proposed here is that single women are generally interested in purchasing a home and that the home of choice is most often a smaller and more affordable unit.  OK, so I added the more affordable part, but I think you’ll grant me the inclusion.  A lot of attention...
Paul Burns, Owner
Paul Burns, Owner
City Investments
Analysis of: Lenders told foreclosure picture grim (www.signonsandiego.com)
The results of all this will be an implosion of prices in most markets.  I can make a case for New York City and Washington D.C., but the affordability there is so low that I think I’d be wrong to make the point.  Last year I was momentarily high on Las Vegas and I was wrong, so I’m reluctant...
Lawrence Comegys, President
Lawrence Comegys, President
Ashwood Investment Inc.
Analysis of: Builders Gain Confidence in Prospects for Home Sales (www.nbnnews.com)
There are signs that support a growing return of cautious optimism among homebuilders. Surveys of builders, including the just reported National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, show measurable improvement in their confidence level. Although this is strongest among single...
Paul Burns, Owner
Paul Burns, Owner
City Investments
Analysis of: Blackstone Gets $3 billion for L.A. - Area Buildings, Person says (www.bloomberg.com)
This deal and its successors are the beginnings of the next trend in the office building market.  The underlying thought here for all the investors is that there will be quantum rent increases in the near term.  Never mind that these buildings are the repository of all the business risks of...
Jim Belfiore, President
Jim Belfiore, President
Belfiore Real Estate Consulting
Analysis of: Toll Brothers Net Falls 67%; Outlook is Cut (online.wsj.com)
Last week, Toll Brothers reported a drop in quarterly profit from the same period last year. Perhaps more startling than the drop were comments from highly respected CEO Robert Toll. Wall Street’s housing analysts eagerly anticipate Mr. Toll’s regular comments, which are usually on target. Surprisingly,...

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