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GLG News by Finite Reinsurance Experts

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David KoegelNovember 10, 2008
Probability Through Rose-Colored Glasses
Analysis of: Why Risk Models Failed to Spot the Credit Crisis by Adam Davidson | www.npr.org
Author: David Koegel, Vice President, Imagine Advisors, Inc.
This article should bring to light a common misconception in attempting to evaluate risk of financial loss which is that probability estimation techniques are often falsely relied upon as precise measures. One must remind oneself that in most cases probability of future financial loss cannot be...
August 18, 2008
The next Sarbanes Oxley for 7 million businesses: Look for your letter from DHS
Analysis of: Introducing Title IX: Voluntary Certification | www.avalution.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
The Department of Homeland Security is currently rolling out enforcement of Public Law 110-53, Title IX requiring all public and private businesses to  have continuity plan with independent third party certification. This law represents the potential to create a Sarbanes Oxley level of commitment...
August 6, 2008
Bond Insurer Rescue ??....OPEN ISSUES...just around the corner...
Analysis of: Merrill, XL to bail out struggling bond insurer | www.reuters.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Merrill Lynch and XL, Citigroup and Ambac "Commutations" illustrate problem of blindly applying P&C Insurance concept to CREDIT risk and the CAPITAL MARKETS.   Grappling with one issue at a time, in  separate policies, silos and islands DOES NOT solve the problem, when they are ALL...
Amanda AtkinsNovember 7, 2007
AAA Subprime 80 cents on the dollar – a good estimate not wild speculation
Analysis of: AAA Sub-Prime Valuation Issues | ftalphaville.ft.com
Author: Amanda Atkins, Chief Executive Officer, Afinia Capital Group
Recent suggestions that the ABX index is a poor proxy for AAA subprime RMBS fail to recognise its value.
June 28, 2007
Reinsurance M&A as a form of market timing
Analysis of: S&P Examines Reinsurance M&A | www.insurancejournal.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
If a book of reinsurance business can be purchased for a price that rpresents the present value of estimated future cash flows of that book, it could be a preferred way to buy market share, given that the price of growing in the reinsurance business can include quoting new accounts at less-than-break-even...
June 21, 2007
Potential benefits of reinsurer consolidation depend on quality of due diligence work.
Analysis of: S&P Examines Reinsurance M&A | www.insurancejournal.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
If thorough due diligence work is performed, investors could benefit from consolidation due to the benefits of diversification.   A combination of companies  focusing on different  lines  would either free up capital  for other purposes or  lead to a financially stronger...
June 14, 2007
New Florida Laws Reduce Risk Adjusted Returns of Bermuda Reinsurers
Analysis of: GR Survey: Florida’s impact on Bermuda | www.globalreinsurance.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Now that Florida is retaining a much larger portion of their more predictable catastrophe losses, insurers and reinsurers should be able to buy the high layer coverage they want at affordable prices.  The risk load charged for this high layer coverage would be significantly less than the risk load...
April 16, 2007
Trends in Life Settlements
Analysis of: Life Settlements - 2006 Trends, Developing and Emerging Trends | www.aquariuscapital.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
 It has become one of the more popular insurance areas focused from an investment, legal and consumer perspective.  Hedge funds are looking at the market due to perceived returns on investment.
Amanda AtkinsJanuary 31, 2007
The Florida Legislation will exacerbate pricing pressures in the reinsurance industry.
Analysis of: Reinsurers Bigger Losers From Florida Legislation Than Primary Insurers | biz.yahoo.com
Author: Amanda Atkins, Chief Executive Officer, Afinia Capital Group
Managing expectations of shareholders, managers or finance directors is not easy, especially when a third party removes a significant part of your premium base at a stroke.  
Amanda AtkinsJanuary 31, 2007
Plus Ça Change – Reinsurance renewals 2007 or was that 1987?
Analysis of: Willis Re 1st View: The Tipping Point? | biz.yahoo.com
Author: Amanda Atkins, Chief Executive Officer, Afinia Capital Group
After twenty years in the industry, the industry cycle looks to me just like it looked last time and the time before. Despite apparent changes to expertise, capital providers and products; in 2007 the reinsurance industry appears to be heading in pretty much the same direction as in previous cycles...

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