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GLG News by Financial Guaranty Experts

James Butler, C.F.A, Ph.D., President
Rigley Financial Corporation
Analysis of: Countrywide profits fall 33% (www.inman.com)
Countrywide's heavy reliance on its underwriting programs and steady appetite for Pay-Option ARM's has created havoc for its portfolio management team. Countrywide's belief that it was smarter than the Mortgage Industry has led to this situation, and we have only begun to see the impact.
Maureen Bolton, Principal
Global Capital Access
Analysis of: Cracks in the Great Wall of China (www.theglobalguru.com)
Recent discoveries regarding Chinese distribution of poisonous toothpaste, dog food and candy should cause us to reassess China's position as an Economic powerhouse. Sure, the Japanese and Koreans once made dodgy products, but their mistakes were due to their learning curve, as opposed to a deliberate...
Maureen Bolton, Principal
Global Capital Access
Analysis of: Subprime Losses Could Cost $100 Billion (newsmax.com)
This article summarizes Fed Chief Ben Bernanke's recent testimony last week before the Senate Banking Committee and the House of Representatives. the Subprime Mortgage/housing market and the expansion of the Federal Regulators' role in monitoring mortgage lenders. Mr. Bernanke's remarks regarding both...
Analysis of: S&P Examines Reinsurance M&A (www.insurancejournal.com)
If a book of reinsurance business can be purchased for a price that rpresents the present value of estimated future cash flows of that book, it could be a preferred way to buy market share, given that the price of growing in the reinsurance business can include quoting new accounts at less-than-break-even...
James Butler, C.F.A, Ph.D., President
Rigley Financial Corporation
June 22, 2007
Is the sky falling?
Analysis of: Ills Deepen in Subprime-Bond Arena (online.wsj.com)
The fallout from the subprime mortgage market has been continually underplayed by the Federal Reserve Chairman. However, as the hangover from the mortgage origination party begins to settle in, the long-term impact is being felt across the financial sectors, and not just exclusively within the Mortgage...
Maureen Bolton, Principal
Global Capital Access
Analysis of: Housing Boom 2.0 (money.cnn.com)
Thanks to the recent increase in subprime mortgage delinquencies and defaults, the media has finally divulged three of the lesser known US mortgage industry practices. 1) Credit scores are not (or should not be) the sole factor in categorizing borrowers as “prime” or subprime”. 2)Brokers are compensated...
Maureen Bolton, Principal
Global Capital Access
Analysis of: Gazprom refuses help with Shtokman (search.ft.com)
This FT article brings up an issue that most of those interested in the subprime mortgage sector have been discussing –modifications for borrowers who are willing but not able to pay their mortgages. Most of the discussion has focused on legal and tax issues –Can you modify a loan within a REMIC? Will...
Analysis of: Citigroup Agrees to Buy Bisys, Expanding Its Funds Services (online.wsj.com)
This should be a clean acquisition from a regulatory point of view. Both Citi and Bisys have gone through tough litigation with the SEC recently related to Investment Advisers Act matters on undisclosed payments to affiliates. Citi Asset Mgt won a summary judgment on fees paid to an internal transfer...
Maureen Bolton, Principal
Global Capital Access
Analysis of: At the Risky End of Finance (www.economist.com)
This article, published last week's Economist, is the first article purporting to explain the global credit derivative market that I have read which isn't full of algebraic formulas.It is a cogent and clear primer on derivatives and would be helpful to investors, clients and portfolio managers who are...
Maureen Bolton, Principal
Global Capital Access
Analysis of: Subprime Loan Servicers Step Up Loss Mitigation Efforts to Avoid Foreclosures (www2.standardandpoors.com)
This Standard & Poor's report, released March 14, 2007 provides both crucial information and comfort to investors in subprime mbs or subprime mortgage originators.  In light of the recent media blitz about increased defaults in subprime mortgages, S&P contacted each major Servicer and "Special...

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