GLG News by Financial Guaranty Experts
Analysis of:
E*Trade Hit By Mortgage Turmoil (online.wsj.com)
Loan loss reserves at banks are at historic lows. At the same time, the credit cycle has turned viciously negative, particularly for mortgages. Banking regulators are likely to ratchet the pressure up on banks to raise their loss reserves. The most vulnerable are banks with outsized exposure to the...
Analysis of:
MGIC, Radian End Merger Deal As Joint Venture Sustains Losses (online.wsj.com)
This article is important because it announces the break up of what was to be one of the most synergistic mergers in mortgage-insurance history. MGIC with its portfolio of traditional mortgage and bond insurance business coupled with a bit of international exposure and Radian with its new...
Analysis of:
Countrywide Communicates Staff Reductions to Employees (online.wsj.com)
Countywide's announcement late last Friday and Angelo Mozilo's letter to employees provide a unique window into CFC's strategy for addressing the impact of the credit crisis on its business. The letter provides details on the steps that CFC is taking to shelter itself from the fallout. Unfortunately,...
Analysis of:
NovaStar to Slash Lending and Cut Jobs (www.nytimes.com)
Retained interests from securitizations made up more than 75% of the shareholder's equity at NFI. Also, the company has elected to finance these securities. Demand, never very strong to begin with, has deteriorated severely in the last month. The company could be forced to recognize a sizeable...
Analysis of:
Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree (www.nytimes.com)
It is wonderful that President Bush's plan to help the disenfranchised keep their homes, and in some (albeit, few) cases, this program will work. But like the cut in the commercial lending rates, this is more symbolic than helpful, and the true problems will persist after the assistance package is ...
Analysis of:
FOCUS Credit ratings face credibility gap, inquiries in wake of sub-prime woes (www.forbes.com)
For years now, the Mortgage and Commercial Lending arena has been the subject of great debate as to whether sound credit decisions were being made. Now, finally, the proof of careless lending practices are coming to light: the question at hand is how will we deal with the fallout?
August 27, 2007
Thoughts on the impact on third quarter earnings from the crisis in subprime mortgages
Analysis of:
Bank Profits May Well Suffer, but Credit Crisis Hardly Leaves Them Defenseless (www.nytimes.com)
Thoughts on the impact on third quarter earnings from the crisis in subprime mortgages
Several banks will be closing their third quarter soon. The credit crisis intensified in the third quarter - what impact should we expect to see from the bankruptcies, plummeting market values, the virtual demise of the collateralized debt obligations market etc. - Some banks will write down goodwill...
Analysis of:
Investors in KKR (ABCP) Affiliate Seek Advice on Payment Delay (online.wsj.com)
Asset backed commercial paper currently offers some of the highest relative yields ever seen for the highest rated short term paper. Why? Because many investors are unsure of what "assets" are actually in these conduits and whether the ones they do know of are valued properly. It's a great...
Analysis of:
How Missed Signs Contributed to a Mortgage Meltdown (www.nytimes.com)
The debacle in subprime bonds was side stepped by some investors. They were able to spot warning signs while others ignored or missed them. A lot of this information was in plain sight. Others could have found the same red flags, if only they knew what to look for
August 8, 2007
Schwartz May Be Smooth, But Spector Succeeded In Creating Bear Stearns' Primary Source of Growth
Analysis of:
Bear Stearns Heir Apparent Tries to Restore Some Faith (www.nytimes.com)
Schwartz May Be Smooth, But Spector Succeeded In Creating Bear Stearns' Primary Source of Growth
This article is important because it introduces the reader to Alan D. Schwartz, the new sole President of Bear Stearns, a dominant player in the mbs markets and raises the question of whether he can assure bankers regarding Bear's ability to retain the same access to the same money at the...
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