GLG News by Financial Guaranty Experts

Simply, writedowns do not overstate the extent of problems at financial firms.  Yes, ultimately the coming "correction" will be overdone (given human nature, most are), but we just getting started (that is, expect a long, sharp recession) -- so things are going to get much ...

Lesson of monoline debacle: Core issue is concentration of counterparty risk. 

Instead of protecting policyholders, NYS regulators have scrambled to assure availability of bond insurance for benefit of public debt issuers. Core of their strategy was to force shareholders and creditors (the banks) to contribute, one way or another, to the solution.  To do so, they pulled off...

Six months ago, BaFin President Jochen Sanio warned that the "worst financial crisis since 1931" was unfolding.  Simply, I concur.

More bad news could pave the way for further buy-ins by foreign investors, such as the Qatar Investment Authority.  "The final determination of these reductions will depend on further results of our review and continuing market developments," the bank said.  Read: Expect more bad news. ...

Morgan's stock will continue to decline.

The monolines have effectively guaranteed the solvency of our modern asset structures.  The size of the asset-backed market that the monolines insured in recent years is in the trillions of dollars.  Any short-term bailout is merely an illusion.

The market for leveraged buyouts will dry up for the next one to two years in the wake of the credit crisis.

"Morgan Stanley expects several more quarters before credit markets return to more normal activity, and structured credit markets could be challenged for an extended period, the company's chief financial officer said."  Challenged.  The FBI is investigating, lawsuits are brewing (such as the...

What should the rating agencies do?   1 perhaps step back a little from ratings based largely on what they put forward as immutable quantitative stress tests that were not supposed to change with the credit cycle and turn a bit more to judgment and subjectivity because credit is not just a...