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GLG News by Experts in the Food & Beverage Council

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January 17, 2007
Expect Margin Squeeze for users of Corn for Food and Ethanol- Likely Negative Earnings Impact
Analysis of: Corn rallies to contract high as USDA cuts crop outlook | custom.marketwatch.com
Author: Brian Stevenson, Principle, B. Stevenson Associates
  Corn Prices now top $4.00 per bushel, Ten year average is $2.10 to $2.30. Year ago prices were $2.25 to $2.50 per bushel. Pricing at the Big Box Retailers is hard for CPG companies to get. The best margins in the Ag Industry are still in Ethanol however even some of those companies will...
October 31, 2006
Commodity Prices and Reduced Pricing Power takes its toll
Analysis of: Coke Enterprises profit hit by costs; lags view | today.reuters.com
Author: Brian Stevenson, Principle, B. Stevenson Associates
High Fructose Corn Syrup Prices go higher as its input Corn competes with Ethanol Production The demand for Corn by Ethanol producers has shifted the Demand Curve out for Carbohydrate commodities like Corn Corn planted Acres are at risk for next year as Wheat prices encourage farmers to plant wheat...
October 30, 2006
Wild Oats Still Well Behind Whole Foods
Analysis of: Organic Growth: Wild Oats May Prove To Be Better Bet Than Whole Foods | online.wsj.com
Author: John Duffy, President, MarketOps, Inc.
1.  Wild Oats has lacked the forward thinking of its main competitor Whole Foods in developing its retail business focused on offering natural and organic foods.2.  While it is encouraging that Mr. Odak has been let go there are a number of key strategic issues that must be addressed for them...
October 27, 2006
Volatile Commodity Prices and Reduced Pricing Power takes its toll
Analysis of: Lance shares fall on lower Q3 earnings, cut in outlook | today.reuters.com
Author: Brian Stevenson, Principle, B. Stevenson Associates
Ag Commodity Prices are volatile to the up side The Demand curve for Ag Commodities is shifting on account of the production of Biofuels Pricing at the retail level is difficult to get Pricing many times comes with lower unit volume Margins get squeezed at the Manufacturing Level Even fine Brand...
October 23, 2006
Added Comments for Above Article
Analysis of: Deutche Bank Cuts Tyson to "Hold" | today.reuters.com
Author: Brian Stevenson, Principle, B. Stevenson Associates
Corn is a major input for making Meat.Corn Prices last year at this time were between $2.10 and $2.25 per bushel.Current prices are well over $3.00 per bushel.Folks in the U.S. Domestic Grain Business estimate that Tyson Uses about 250 million bushels of Corn per year.
October 23, 2006
McDonald's is Hitting on All Cylinders
Analysis of: McDonald's 3rd-quarter outlook beats estimates | today.reuters.com
Author: John Duffy, President, MarketOps, Inc.
1.  McDonald's is performing at a high level driven by core growth platforms at home in the U.S. as well as abroad.2.  The fast food industry itself is starting to show signs of life after experiencing softness over the past year or so.  While maybe not as profoundly as McDonald's,...
October 20, 2006
Commodity Prices and Reduced Pricing Power takes its toll
Analysis of: Deutche Bank Cuts Tyson to "Hold" | today.reuters.com
Author: Brian Stevenson, Principle, B. Stevenson Associates
Commodity price increases increase Cost of Goods Sold Even good brand names find it difficult to get pricing at Big Box Retailers These two facts will lead to Margin Squeeze for Producing firms Animals are very inefficient converters of Grain Carbohydrates into Protein Carbohydrate use (corn)...
October 20, 2006
Commodity Prices, Risk Management Critical to CPG Companies
Analysis of: Austrailian Wheat Crop Could Hit all time Low | www.ap-foodtechnology.com
Author: Brian Stevenson, Principle, B. Stevenson Associates
Australian wheat crop devastated by drought U.S. Bread wheat Crop also hurt by drought The world will use more wheat than it grows this year reducing stocks Prices made 10 year highs and are expected to remain volatile This will likely have a strong affect on earnings of companies that use wheat...
October 17, 2006
Food Fight, Corn For fuel or for Meat
Analysis of: McDonald's 3rd-quarter outlook beats estimates | today.reuters.com
Author: Brian Stevenson, Principle, B. Stevenson Associates
Beef takes about 8 pounds of feed to make one pound of beef Corn is the largest component of Cattle feed Ethanol is the best economic use of Corn today Packing Company margins have been squeezed to the point of shutting down capacity Can McDonald’s and the like keep their cheap pricing in face...
October 17, 2006
Food verses Fuel, Who will win?? Rice is a Carbohydrate
Analysis of: Rice May Climb 100 Percent by 2008 | www.restaurantnewsresource.com
Author: Brian Stevenson, Principle, B. Stevenson Associates
1. World Carbohydrate (Ag Commodities) prices will likely remain firm in the next few years as the demand curve for carbohydrates shifts account of Ethanol production. 2. Rice acres in East Asia are at risk to urban and transportation growth 3. Companies that use basic Ag Commodities are at risk of...

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