GLG News by Council Members Knowledgeable on Carbon Steel Pipes and Tubes

Contract prices likely to soar in 2008 Rising supply and weaker demand may lead to weakness in 2009

US steel industry gains direct benefit from market protection against the major sources of potential over-supply over the next five years. This won't insulate the industry entirely due to a spillover effect. ArcelorMittal illustrates its phenomenal lobbying power and this has to be a success for this...

This "announcement" is not about substitution, it is about upcoming contract negotiations with its steel suppliers, and an attempt to influence the agenda to offset the supplier power of the steel industry. Substitution is occuring, and will continue to occur (even towards steel and aluminium)...

Pricing volatility has not been reduced. US HR coil prices have just dropped $150/ton (25%) in the last six months and could easily go up by the same amount in the next six. The difference is that the bottom of the current cycle is above most producers' cost level.The theory is that consolidation...

Indian consumption was just over 30m tonnes of finished steel in 2005. To reach 200m tonnes by 2020 would require a compound growth rate in excess of 13% for a 15-year period. The previous 15 years has seen a compound growth rate of less than 5%.Chinese consumption compound growth over the last fifteen...

An examination of the recent major M&A activity in the steel market suggests that the majority of buyers have been companies with dominant shareholders. These appear to have a higher appetite for risk than their publicly-traded brethren. The result will be a fast dwindling band of listed steel companies...