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August 26, 2008
Long term implications of the credit crisis
Analysis of: Lenders reject multiple credit applications | www.guardian.co.uk
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
The long term implications of the current crisis are a frightening vision.  The impact across many housing related industries won't be truly felt for 3-5 years when a large number of people will not be able to secure any type of home financing.  In turn, we will likely see a new 'Sub Prime'...
Bill BradwayJuly 14, 2008
Time to Say Goodbye to the Old American Mortgage Pie?
Analysis of: U.S. Weighs Takeover of Two Mortgage Giants | www.nytimes.com
Author: Bill Bradway, Founder & Managing Director, Bradway Research, LLC
The news that Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman Bernanke are trying to reassure the broader markets that Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) will not be allowed to fail has not produced the expected calming effect on the markets. Shares of both firms have plunged into single digits. Who...
June 23, 2008
Will the card industry's survival of tight interchange fee caps in Australia similarly doom the fee in the US and EU?
Analysis of: Australia shrugs off RBA intervention | www.laffertycardsinsider.com
Author: Duncan MacDonald, Consultant, Duncan McDonald
The Lafferty study indicates that forced reductions of bankcard interchange fees in Australia have not significantly harmed issuer or network profits.  This is the exact opposite of what industry representatives had predicted.  If Lafferty is on target, interchange pricing...
Bill BradwayJune 6, 2008
Delinquencies Sprout Like Weeds: Time For a Pain Check
Analysis of: Delinquencies and Foreclosures Increase in Latest Mortgage Bankers Survey | www.mortgagebankers.org
Author: Bill Bradway, Founder & Managing Director, Bradway Research, LLC
Adverse news continues to sprout headlines describing the expansion of delinquencies into new corners of the US bank and thrift loan portfolios. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that 1Q2008 mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates continued to expand abovemuch 4Q2007 levels and are now much...
Bill BradwayMay 19, 2008
First Boom, Now Bust Burns An Aggressive Banker
Analysis of: A Gamble That Went Bust | online.wsj.com
Author: Bill Bradway, Founder & Managing Director, Bradway Research, LLC
The housing bust has already made headlines from the subprime fallout, claiming dozens of mortgage banks, producing asset write offs approaching $300 billion on a global basis, and forcing many of the largest financial institutions to raise billions in new capital. Now smaller banks are going over the...
Bill BradwayApril 10, 2008
WaMu Takes $7 Billion; Pain for Some, Gain for New Investors
Analysis of: WaMu's Costly Rescue | online.wsj.com
Author: Bill Bradway, Founder & Managing Director, Bradway Research, LLC
Washington Mutual (WaMu) cut a deal with TPG and other investors for a $7 billion capital injection by issuing common stock and preferred convertible stock. In addition, 1st quarter write offs of $3.5 billion contributed to an estimated first quarter loss of $1.1 billion. Clearly WaMu needs capital,...
Bill BradwayMarch 17, 2008
Big Banks for Sale: A Buyer's Market or Dilemma?
Analysis of: It's a Buyer's Market for Banks | online.wsj.com
Author: Bill Bradway, Founder & Managing Director, Bradway Research, LLC
A number of large banks are looking at severely depressed stock prices and multiples that have dropped to book value or below. Is now the time for a buyer to step up and buy a struggling bank? If not, when does it make sense for a buyer to cut a deal? Will existing M & A deals still close? What...
March 11, 2008
Prognosis for Visa's coming IPO
Analysis of: Rocky Road for Visa's IPO | lafferty.com
Author: Duncan MacDonald, Consultant, Duncan McDonald
Investors, including bankcard issuers, want the Visa IPO to be at least as successful as MasterCard's in '06. Visa's global legal problems, which are especially acute in the US and EU, could burden Visa far into the future. The US credit crunch could hold surprises for Visa, more so if Democrats...
Bill BradwayMarch 7, 2008
Mortgage Market Woes Gather Steam and More Victims
Analysis of: Housing, Bank Problems Deepen | online.wsj.com
Author: Bill Bradway, Founder & Managing Director, Bradway Research, LLC
The US housing and mortgage crisis has mushroomed into a new level of adversity. When will this bleeding subside and ultimately come to an end? Is the market near a bottom yet? Are there any upside opportunities? Will the bank, thrift and mortgage industry's pain turn into someone's gain?
February 28, 2008
Merchant Cash Advance Concept
Analysis of: Merchant Cash Advances Open Doors | www.greensheet.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
The Merchant Cash Advance Concept is not new.  I have been in the regional and community bank business for over 40 years, and I was with a reginal bank that was using a broader concept that the one described in the commentary in the 1960s.

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