January 24, 2008How the current rate cuts and other stats will impact the market
Analysis of:
Stocks Seek to Extend gains | money.aol.com
Author: Joseph Smith,
President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management The reduction in interest rates is going to have a negative impact on the existing mortgage portfolios due to adverse selection. The decrease in those seeking unemployment benefits is very misleading. The stimulus package is not going to help those in real trouble and will pay some bills for most.
January 24, 2008
Expect a sharp, long recession
Analysis of:
Credit crisis: £2bn fund bars withdrawals | www.thisismoney.co.ukAuthor: GLG Expert ContributorIf this had been a mere subprime crisis, it would now be over. But it is not, and nor will it be over soon. Any near-term rally in the bear market is likely to be led by U.S. companies that will get the biggest bang from the Federal Reserve's latest interest-rate cut. But this is exactly the part...
January 23, 2008
Bear markets are notorious for repeated failed rallies that crush the last drop of optimism out of investors before putting in a bottom
Analysis of:
Where the bear will bite hardest | articles.moneycentral.msn.comAuthor: GLG Expert ContributorAny near-term rally in the bear market is likely to be led by U.S. companies that will get the biggest bang from the Federal Reserve's latest interest-rate cut. But this is exactly the part of the economy where the reality of a slow recovery has the power to repeatedly dash premature optimism. Take...
January 23, 2008
The credit default swaps market has the potential to cause serious financial contagion
Analysis of:
This is not merely a subprime crisis | www.ft.comAuthor: GLG Expert ContributorThis is not merely a subprime crisis. Several other (and larger) pockets of the credit market are also vulnerable, (such as) credit default swaps, relatively modern financial instruments that allow bondholders to insure against default.
January 22, 2008
Fed rate cuts of the short term Fed funds rate are not the right solution for what ails our modern financial system today.
Analysis of:
Fed Cuts Rate 0.75 Percentage Point in Emergency Move | www.bloomberg.comAuthor: GLG Expert Contributor Fed rate cuts of the short term are not the right solution for what ails our modern financial system today. The Fed’s goal should be to solve the persistent problem in the Interbank market through the use of two solutions, one short-term and the other long-term that I describe.
January 15, 2008BOA and Operational Risk
Analysis of:
Countrywide rescue: $4 billion | money.cnn.com
Author: Joseph Smith,
President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management Over valued versus the risk of litigation, talent flight, legislative constraints, portfolio loss and about every other imaginable variable. Overvalued servicing rights with disappointed servicing investors. Average industry systems, nothing great. Short staffed already. More leaving. Mozillio defineltly...
January 15, 2008B of A acquires a stomach ache
Analysis of:
Countrywide rescue: $4 billion | money.cnn.com
Author: Joseph Smith,
President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management While on paper the acquisition versus the valuation of loan servicing looks good, the reality is a whole mess of operational and regulatory risk. The Countrywide CIO was just announced leaving for FIS (Fidelity) and the state of the art systems was one of the selling points in the acquisition. An asset...
January 11, 2008
In 2008, writedowns expected due to CLOs or LBOs should be smaller in magnitude than the $50B writedowns we have observed due to mortgage bond devaluations.
Analysis of:
LBO debt logjam threatens further write-downs for banks | www.reuters.comAuthor: GLG Expert ContributorIn 2008, writedowns expected due to CLOs or LBOs should be smaller in magnitude than the $50B writedowns we have observed due to mortgage bond devaluations.
January 7, 2008Like any proud shopper, Temasek is happy to have recognised a bargain in Merrill
Analysis of:
Temasek Supports Merrill Despite Sub-Prime Losses | www.bankingtimes.co.uk
Author: Maureen Bolton,
Principal, Global Capital Access This article summarises Temasek's recent equity investment in Merrill, including the price paid and future intentions. Temasek appears to be more than satisfied with its investment and is inclined toward similar investments (financial institutions undervalued due to over-estimates of subprime/CDO...
January 2, 2008
Rating Sins and Redemption
Analysis of:
Rating Subprime Investment Grade Made `Joke' of Credit Experts | www.bloomberg.comAuthor: GLG Expert Contributor1 Rating agencies should perhaps step back a little from ratings based largely on what they put forward as immutable quantitative stress tests that were not supposed to change with the credit cycle and turn a bit more to judgment and subjectivity because credit is not just a numbers game. ...