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GLG News by Asset Backed Securities Experts

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February 8, 2008
The monoline insurance business model is faulty
Analysis of: MBIA to Raise Additional $750 Million of Capital | www.bloomberg.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
The monolines have effectively guaranteed the solvency of our modern asset structures.  The size of the asset-backed market that the monolines insured in recent years is in the trillions of dollars.  Any short-term bailout is merely an illusion.
February 6, 2008
The market for leveraged buyouts will dry up for the next one to two years in the wake of the credit crisis
Analysis of: Private equity investment returns slow down | www.financialnews-us.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
The market for leveraged buyouts will dry up for the next one to two years in the wake of the credit crisis.
February 1, 2008
CME to Benefit from Merger
Analysis of: CME-Nymex: Good Deal? | online.wsj.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
As the CME antes up a large bid for the NYMEX, outsiders wonder whether this merger could put the US Futures Markets in peril.  The mega exchange resulting from this merger would be very close to a monopoly.  The CME is not concerned over antitrust laws because it was successful in acquiring...
January 30, 2008
Expect at least four very bad quarters for Morgan
Analysis of: Morgan Stanley Reclassifies Assets, Receives Subpoenas on Subprime Debt | online.wsj.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
"Morgan Stanley expects several more quarters before credit markets return to more normal activity, and structured credit markets could be challenged for an extended period, the company's chief financial officer said."  Challenged.  The FBI is investigating, lawsuits are brewing (such as the...
January 30, 2008
Fed Rate Cut Expected - Is that a good idea?
Analysis of: Fed Rate Cut Expected | news.aol.com
Author: Joseph Smith, President & CEO, Default Mitigation Management
While many companies and investors are planning on what to do with cheaper money due to the rate cuts, one of the implications has been that a rate cut will help re-start the mortgage industry engine. Yes, originators will get some new refi's completed and earn some fee income, and there will be a few...
January 30, 2008
SEC may tinker with regulation of rating agencies but solutions lie elsewhere
Analysis of: Credit Raters Face Heat; Moody's Is Sued by a Fund | online.wsj.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
What should the rating agencies do?   1 perhaps step back a little from ratings based largely on what they put forward as immutable quantitative stress tests that were not supposed to change with the credit cycle and turn a bit more to judgment and subjectivity because credit is not just a...
January 29, 2008
Limitations of VaR are significant
Analysis of: Death of VaR Evoked as Risk-Taking Vim Meets Taleb's Black Swan | www.bloomberg.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
VaR requires past price series which is not reliablie for illiquid securities VaR can be used for credit risk to do Credit VaR but this is frequeently not done VaR does indeed miss liquidity risks VaR entails many assumptions and so it is hard to compare VaR from one to another institution Internal...
January 29, 2008
VaR is an effective summary risk measure, but be aware of its limitations and other risks
Analysis of: Death of VaR Evoked as Risk-Taking Vim Meets Taleb's Black Swan | www.bloomberg.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
VaR is just a summary number for quantifying 'normal' market risk, it will lead you astray if you expect it to protect you from other risks, such as liquidity and credit risks. Do not hang your hat on just the one porfolio VaR number without knowing all other risks
January 28, 2008
Monoline insurance companies, such as Ambac and MBIA, are in terrible shape -- and the problems are much worse than most realize
Analysis of: Word Of Bond Insurer Bailout Plan Premature: Says Dinallo | www.propertyandcasualtyinsurancenews.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
First, ratings downgrades are just a matter of time.  Secondly, we face a long period of uncertainty (that is, no one is really sure who owes what and to whom, et cetera) and pain -- a mess that institutions are going to have to unwind in order to evaluate and properly...
January 25, 2008
Ambac and other bond insurers face "massive losses over the next few quarters" that will test their ability to raise new capital
Analysis of: Ambac Works To Add Capital After $3B Loss | www.propertyandcasualtyinsurancenews.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Bond insurers will be hard pressed to survive mounting losses on CDOs and other securities that they guarante.  Egan-Jones estimates that Ambac losses may reach $4.3 billion.

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