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September 12, 2007
The Role of Ratings Agencies
Analysis of: S&P President Corbet Is Replaced | online.wsj.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Profit motive drives every participant in the mortgage chain from consumer to capital market participants. We’ve been queried frequently this year about who is to blame for the industry crisis. This is not an exercise we like to engage in since hindsight is always 20/20, however if we leave the blame...
September 10, 2007
C-Bass breaks up Radian/MGIC marriage
Analysis of: MGIC, Radian End Merger Deal As Joint Venture Sustains Losses | online.wsj.com
Author: Maureen Bolton, Principal, Global Capital Access
This article is important because it announces the break up of what was to be one of the most synergistic mergers in mortgage-insurance history.  MGIC with its portfolio of traditional mortgage and bond insurance business  coupled with a bit of international exposure and Radian with its new...
Raj MehraSeptember 10, 2007
Countrywide Spells Out Its Strategy to Manage Credit Market Crisis
Analysis of: Countrywide Communicates Staff Reductions to Employees | online.wsj.com
Author: Raj Mehra, President & Founder, Chelsea Advisory Services
Countywide's announcement late last Friday and Angelo Mozilo's letter to employees provide a unique window into CFC's strategy for addressing the impact of the credit crisis on its business. The letter provides details on the steps that CFC is taking to shelter itself from the fallout. Unfortunately,...
Raj MehraSeptember 5, 2007
Writedowns of Retained Interests Could be Next Shoe to Drop for Subprime Lenders
Analysis of: NovaStar to Slash Lending and Cut Jobs | www.nytimes.com
Author: Raj Mehra, President & Founder, Chelsea Advisory Services
Retained interests from securitizations made up more than 75% of the shareholder's equity at NFI. Also, the company has elected to finance these securities. Demand, never very strong to begin with, has deteriorated severely in the last month. The company could be forced to recognize a sizeable...
September 3, 2007
Why the Fed's Help Won't Help
Analysis of: Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree | www.nytimes.com
Author: James Butler, President, Rigley Financial Corporation
It is wonderful that President Bush's plan to help the disenfranchised keep their homes, and in some (albeit, few) cases, this program will work. But like the cut in the commercial lending rates, this is more symbolic than helpful, and the true problems will persist after the assistance package is ...
August 29, 2007
If it can be conceived by man, it can be defeated by another man.
Analysis of: Teen untethers iPhone from AT&T | alwayson.goingon.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Digital Rights Managers including cell phone "locks" invite the bright to attempt to crack past the obstacle.  A quality product and superior service are the best protections possible.  What can a company expect to gain by suing a teenager for being bright and motivated.
August 29, 2007
Why the Alt-A Originate-To-Sell Mortgage Business Model Could No Longer Be Viable in a Declining Real Estate Market
Analysis of: Some Banks Better Positioned Than Others to Survive Mortgage Fallout | biz.yahoo.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Alt-A Mortgage Sector Strategist (Robert Eng, CEO Strategist Network) says, “the Alt-A originate-to-sell mortgage business model might not be viable in a declining real estate market.”  There are three main reasons for this.  1) Alt-A (stated income) loans may tend to contain areas of...
August 29, 2007
The Greater Fool Theory
Analysis of: FOCUS Credit ratings face credibility gap, inquiries in wake of sub-prime woes | www.forbes.com
Author: James Butler, President, Rigley Financial Corporation
For years now, the Mortgage and Commercial Lending arena has been the subject of great debate as to whether sound credit decisions were being made. Now, finally, the proof of careless lending practices are coming to light: the question at hand is how will we deal with the fallout?
August 27, 2007
The quantitative playbook has not failed. I dispel some myths in the press from my understanding of the quant equity investing methodology. Opportunities for quant equity managers to claim outperformance will not diminish
Analysis of: How the 'Quant' Playbook Failed | online.wsj.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
The quantitative playbook for stock selection and portfolio construction has not failed and will stay as durable as ever. This systematized framework for modern portfolio management was simply put through its paces recently. I comment on the reason for the recent draw-downs by quant funds, why in the...
Raj MehraAugust 27, 2007
Thoughts on the impact on third quarter earnings from the crisis in subprime mortgages
Analysis of: Bank Profits May Well Suffer, but Credit Crisis Hardly Leaves Them Defenseless | www.nytimes.com
Author: Raj Mehra, President & Founder, Chelsea Advisory Services
Several banks will be closing their third quarter soon. The credit crisis intensified in the third quarter - what impact should we expect to see from the bankruptcies, plummeting market values, the virtual demise of the collateralized debt obligations market etc. - Some banks will write down goodwill...

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