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March 5, 2007
Airbus Cash Cow will Soon be Vulnerable
Analysis of: A320 Ramp Up Key to Airbus Health | www.aviationweek.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Analysis of: A320 Ramp Up Key to Airbus Health | www.aviationweek.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
• Airbus expansion is necessary for cash flow, given two major failures (A350 and A380)• This is risky and problematic, given Power 8 program, job cutbacks and political realities• The opportunity exists for Boeing to leapfrog the A320 family with new technology, and create a competitive...
March 5, 2007
Long-Haul Low Fare Service is Becoming a Reality
Analysis of: U.S. and EU Reach Agreement On Tentative 'Open Skies' Deal | online.wsj.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Analysis of: U.S. and EU Reach Agreement On Tentative 'Open Skies' Deal | online.wsj.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
• Open Skies is the equivalent of deregulation, which will invite new competition into the transatlantic market• New Low fare carriers as well as business oriented carriers will enter the market and compete with existing legacy carriers• Fares and yields will drop due to new competition,...
March 5, 2007
UPS Cancels 10 A380F Freighters - Good News for Airbus?
Analysis of: Ditching Airbus | online.wsj.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Analysis of: Ditching Airbus | online.wsj.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
• The last remaining customer for the A380, UPS has canceled its orders.• Airbus can now defer development of the A380F and put additional engineering resources on the passenger version.• Boeing will have the large freighter market to itself for the next few years with the 747-400F...
March 2, 2007
A Major Delay and More Problems at Eclipse
Analysis of: Eclipse’s Relationship with Avidyne Terminated | www.ainalerts.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Analysis of: Eclipse’s Relationship with Avidyne Terminated | www.ainalerts.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
• Eclipse has been unable to attain a production certificate to being mass production of its aircraft• A change in avionics manufacturer will likely result in further delays, possibly as much as a year• Significant delays in deliveries and cash flow will result, as well as delays to...
February 27, 2007
Why Boeing will accelerate new program development
Analysis of: Big U.S. Airlines Face Obstacles Updating Fleets | online.wsj.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Analysis of: Big U.S. Airlines Face Obstacles Updating Fleets | online.wsj.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
• Because major US carriers do not want to replace aging fleets with existing technology aircraft nearing the end of their lifecycle, they will not order existing models• The potential for massive orders from American, United, Delta and Northwest will be perhaps $20B to the winner, an attractive...
February 27, 2007
Deferred Decision the Worst Possible Outcome for Airbus in Short Term
Analysis of: UPS eyes 2007 decision on jumbo freighter: Cancellation could wipe last A380F orders off Airbus books | www.marketwatch.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Analysis of: UPS eyes 2007 decision on jumbo freighter: Cancellation could wipe last A380F orders off Airbus books | www.marketwatch.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
• UPS is the only remaining customer for the A380F• By deferring a potential cancellation decision until later this year, Airbus needs to continue to develop the A380F and spend money during a cash flow crisis• It would have been better for Airbus for UPS to cancel its order, deferring...
February 27, 2007
Federalism versus the States: A grey area when it comes to liquor
Analysis of: After Car Crash, Liquor Laws and Airlines Are Debated | www.nytimes.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Analysis of: After Car Crash, Liquor Laws and Airlines Are Debated | www.nytimes.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
• Compliance is necessary• Responsibility like a bartender appears to apply• Potential liability for airlines, especially those unlicensed
February 27, 2007
When Low Cost Infrastructure Becomes a Problem
Analysis of: JetBlue Continues Flight Cancellations, Hoping to Return to Normal Tuesday | online.wsj.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Analysis of: JetBlue Continues Flight Cancellations, Hoping to Return to Normal Tuesday | online.wsj.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
• The good will build up by JetBlue, which offers superior service when times are good, has been lost by incompetent management during a weather crisis• A follow-up storm with minor snowfall also created massive cancellations and delays• JetBlue initiated a Passenger Bill of Rights...
February 27, 2007
Free market will lead to demand-based costs and pricing
Analysis of: Airlines at La Guardia Fight Bush Administration Proposal to Auction Off Landing Rights | www.nytimes.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Analysis of: Airlines at La Guardia Fight Bush Administration Proposal to Auction Off Landing Rights | www.nytimes.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
• Higher prices at Peak Times at LaGuardia• Those who really want to serve the New York market from LaGuardia will pay a premium price
February 27, 2007
Leapfrogging the A320 could force Airbus restructuring
Analysis of: Boeing may offer two 737 replacement solution | www.atwonline.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Analysis of: Boeing may offer two 737 replacement solution | www.atwonline.com
Author: GLG Expert Contributor
Boeing can play leapfrog and place Airbus in an untenable situation by attacking its major cash generator, the A320 family.Aircraft manufacturing has four to five year lead times for product development, and Boeing currently has an advantage on the chessboard.An annoucement from Boeing will likely occur...
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